The Cubs lost 96 games in 2002, but there were signs of hope entering this season. New manager Dusty Baker had a long history of success with the San Francisco Giants. Young fireballer Kerry Wood was getting stronger each year after requiring reconstructive surgery on his elbow. And another young pitcher, Mark Prior, arrived following a stellar college career.
The team thrived under Baker, winning 88 games and the division title. Wood had a strong season, winning 14 games and leading the league with 266 strikeouts. Another young pitcher, 22-year-old Carlos Zambrano, also pitched very well, winning 13 games. With veteran Matt Clement winning 14 games, the Cubs had arguably the best starting rotation in the league.
Prior was the ace. Also just 22 years old, Prior not only justified the hype he had received, but transcended it. He was everything a great young power pitcher is supposed to be. He would have had an excellent chance of winning the Cy Young Award had he been healthier; Prior went on the DL at midseason after a collision on the basepaths with Braves' second baseman Marcus Giles (Prior hurt his shoulder, Giles suffered a concussion).
On another occasion, he collided with his own first baseman, Hee Seop Choi; Prior survived unscathed but gave his teammate a concussion. In September, Prior went on the DL again with a hamstring injury. Though he had some close calls, he still led the Cubs to the playoffs, and threw a dominant two-hitter against the Braves in his first postseason start. The Cubs were just glad that his injuries were not pitching-related.
Eric Gagne, the Dodgers' closer, won the Cy Young Award, after pitching arguably the best 82 innings that have ever been thrown. Gagne set a record by saving 55 games; he did not have a blown save the entire season. He became the first pitcher to twice save 50 games in a season; by the year's end, he also held a record with 63 consecutive saves, dating back to 2002. He held opposing batters to a .133 average, while striking out 14.96 batters per nine innings, a new record for pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched.
The biggest knock against Gagne was his low innings pitched total; 82 innings isn't bad for a modern closer, but what about Prior and Jason Schmidt, who both threw over 200 innings? Gagne can really only be considered as a viable candidate, if we believe that the innings that a closer throws are more important that those of a starter. This is probably true, but how much more important is a subject of debate.
Think about the problem this way: if you believe that a starter's innings are equally as important as a closer's, then Gagne has a tough case. The difference between Gagne and Schmidt was a pitcher who threw 125 innings with a 3.09 ERA, and that's a big deal.
But if we place a greater importance on the innings that a closer pitches, Gagne's case improves.
IP ER ERA
Jason Schmidt 207.7 54 2.34
Eric Gagne 82.3 11 1.20
Gagne's adjusted | Difference in
stats inning/runs
RATIO | IP ER ERA | IP ER ERA
1-1 | 82.3 11 1.20 | 125.3 43 3.09
1.5-1 | 123.7 17 1.24 | 84.0 37 3.96
2-1 | 164.7 22 1.20 | 43.0 32 6.70
If Gagne's innings were 50% more important, then he has a better case. If they are 100% more important, than it's no contest. Given that Gagne almost always started innings, and rarely had to pitch with runners on base, I suspect that the number is somewhere between 20-50%. The choice of Gagne is not a sure thing.
Gagne led what was one of the best bullpens ever. The Dodgers' had a team ERA that was far better than any other team in the league, led by their spectacular bullpen, which had a collective ERA of only 2.46. The starting rotation was also excellent, led by 38-year-old Kevin Brown, who recovered from a pair of injury-plagued seasons to have a great year. But as good as their pitchers were, their hitters were just as bad; the Dodgers finished last in the league in runs scored, and missed the playoffs.
I think that Prior was the best starter in the league, though Schmidt, the Giants' fireballer, was close. Schmidt was dominant for most of the season, then threw a shutout against the Marlins in Game One of their division series. But in the deciding Game Five, Schmidt wasn't able to pitch, and the Giants were eliminated. While the Marlins were winning the championship, Schmidt required surgery on his rotator cuff.
I am going to stick with Gagne as the Cy Young winner for this season. I'm not sure if he was more valuable than Prior; I do know that he pitched as well in his role as anyone can pitch. Prior was great, but not in the same class as a Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez. If you are not going to give Gagne the Cy Young this year, then when could a closer ever win the award?
