2005 Season Preview (American League)

I've been online for almost five years now, and each year I've done a preseason preview to help keep things current. I wasn't planning on doing it this year, because it's a lot of work and last year was a struggle to get finished. But I gave it a shot, and actually enjoyed it quite a bit - I've even finished a month earlier than usual. It was just one of those years when it was fun to write about baseball; may there be more like them. Here's the American League; thanks for visiting!

I'm also making my preseason award predictions, and rankings for each position. Thanks!

Predictions:
American League Preview:
National League Preview:
2005 Player Rankings:
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2005 Predictions:

American League MVP: Manny Ramirez
American League Cy Young: Rich Harden
AL Playoffs: Red Sox, Twins, Angels, Athletics (WC)
American League Pennant: Minnesota Twins

National League MVP: Marcus Giles
National League Cy Young: Mark Prior
NL Playoffs: Braves, Cubs, Padres, Cardinals (WC)
National League Pennant: Chicago Cubs

AMERICAN LEAGUE PREVIEW
EAST

Boston Red Sox

They had a nifty offseason, picking up a couple of real good players and a number of solid spare parts. This, following a nifty postseason, which followed a nifty regular season.

There are some people who have suggested that the Sox' fan base may wane now that they have won a championship. Part of the allure of being a Red Sox fan, so the argument goes, is the collective heartbreak that members of Red Sox Nation have endured over the years.

That may or may not happen. I am more interested in whether the Sox' front office will lose some of its fire now that they have won. The 2004 Red Sox were the product of an ambitious, fearless young GM, who was armed with an incredibly talented group of consultants. Do the Sox continue to make bold moves and think outside the box, or do they just become complacent, and start throwing their money at the biggest names and contracts who are available?

The first order of business was to turn the roster over. One of the traps that championship teams often fall into, is that they think they can repeat with the same 25 guys as the year before. The Sox added Renteria, Clement and Wells, not bad but not as much as I would like to see. Theo Epstein's most interesting moves of the offseason were his acquisitions of spare parts, guys like Wade Miller, John Halama, Matt Mantei and Roberto Petagine, who won't get much playing time in April but may have the ability to step up and be impact players if called upon.

They're in good shape. They had a better winter than the Yankees, and that's their only competition.

CA - Jason Varitek - His four year, $40 million contract was both a reward for a job well done in 2004, and payment for a repeat in 2005. The last three years will be a waste for the Sox; Varitek is a good player, but is 33 years old and won't be an elite catcher two years from now.

1B - Kevin Millar - Millar is an OK player; he has a good bat, but not all that special for a first baseman or DH. And he pretty much has to DH because he's an awful defensive player at every position. 33 years old, will be out of the league in a couple of years, and won't be missed.

2B - Mark Bellhorn - During the postseason there was some debate over who Theo Epstein's mentor is. Is it Billy Beane? Bill James? Branch Rickey? Harry Sinden? Red Auerbach? In the end, the Sox had so many unique talents that they were hard to classify as any one thing. Bellhorn set a record for strikeouts by a second baseman, but still put a lot of runs on the board. Defensively, he looks awkward in the field, but whatever statistics Theo Epstein looks at probably rate him as OK.

3B - Bill Mueller - Following his magnificent 2003 season, Mueller hyperextended his elbow in spring training, then required arthroscopic surgery on his knee in midsummer. When he was able to swing the bat he was OK, but defensively he was one of a myriad of problems that the Red Sox had on the left side of the diamond.

His replacement, Kevin Youkilis, didn't knock anybody's sox off, so Mueller has been brought back to be the starter. He won't repeat his 2003 season but should be fine.

SS - Edgar Renteria - Though his team was thrashing the Cardinals in the World Series, Theo Epstein was still able to decide that the Cards' shortstop was a guy he wanted. Renteria had a disappointing season in his free agent year, but the team was great and he made some dazzling defensive plays in the postseason. 29 years old, he has had his best season but will still be an among the better middle infielders in the league.

LF - Manny Ramirez - He probably enters the 2005 season as the #1 MVP candidate in the American League. He is one of the best and most consistent hitters in baseball, he plays for a great team, and by winning the World Series MVP has set aside questions about his leadership, or lack of it.

CF - Johnny Damon - At age 30, he probably had the best season of his career, capped by one magnificent game in the ALCS. Now has 1592 career hits... it's almost certain that Damon will get over 2500 hits in his career, but like Willie Davis and Vada Pinson, won't go into the Hall of Fame unless he hangs on long enough to get 3000.

RF - Trot Nixon/Jay Payton - Nixon has developed into a remarkable platoon player. The past two seasons, he has destroyed right-handed pitching but still struggles against left-handers. Last year, he did not play his first game until mid-June due to a herniated disc, then went back on the DL a month later with a torn quad muscle. He recovered, hit .429 as a part-time player in September, and was productive in the postseason.

Nixon is a good player, but his near future may be at DH, and there's no room at that position in Boston. As the #4 outfielder, Payton will give the Sox much better defence than Gabe Kapler did, and can hit a little if Nixon goes down.

DH - David Ortiz - You probably know him. He's big, he's strong, and he whacks the hell out of the ball. Ortiz raised his OPS vs. left-handers 100 points, from "awful" to "mediocre"; only 29 years old, trying to improve that performance from "mediocre" to "OK, I'm not going to platoon you in Diamond Mind baseball anymore." The Washburn Bomb was a good start.

SP - Curt Schilling - He won 21 games during the season, then did a Roy Hobbs in the playoffs, saving the Red Sox by pitching great on one leg. That was some kind of season, and some kind of trade.

Schilling now has 184 wins; he has never won a Cy Young Award, but has been runner-up three times, and would have won all three years had he been pitching in the other league. He is such a great pitcher that it seems very possible that he can roll on to at least 220 wins, enough for the Hall of Fame. Even if he doesn't, my guess is that he gets in anyways.

SP - Matt Clement - His year got off to a great start, but then ran into some bad luck during the summer. From June 8 to July 16, his record fell from 7-4 to 7-9, even though he only gave up 12 earned runs in 44 innings during that span, a 2.45 ERA.

Later in the year he began to struggle a bit, and then was dropped from the Cubs' rotation in September, for reasons that I don't really understand. His arm was checked out but he appears to be healthy. He has a great arm, is wild but is very gradually learning how to pitch.

I may be in the minority, and may still be intoxicated from the Red Sox' success a year ago, but I would much rather have Clement than any of the Johnson/Pavano/Wright trio that the Yankees acquired.

SP - David Wells - Amazing things happen when you throw strikes. Boomer will be 42 years old this year but is still a good pitcher; he won 12 games last season despite crappy run support. He will be the Sox' road ace, not well suited for Fenway Park but a perfect fit in Yankee Stadium. Realistically, I would bet that John Halama starts more games in 2005 than Wells; he's a strained back or twisted ankle away from having his career come to an end.

SP - Tim Wakefield - Stop the presses; a knuckleballer actually won a World Series. Knuckleballers have historically been denegrated by baseball men, for one reason or another, and usually spend much of their careers with crappy teams. Wakefield not only won a championship, but saved the Sox with his brilliant performance in Game Five of the ALCS. Who knows, maybe we will see a knuckle revival over the next few years.

SP - Bronson Arroyo - On October 16, he made the biggest start of his career in Game Three of the ALCS, a game that the Red Sox lost 19-8, putting them behind 3-0 in the series. I guess you can laugh about it after you've received your championship ring...

As for his performance during the season, it was quite good. Arroyo had to work his way back to the big leagues with a brilliant season at Pawtucket in 2003... and damned if he didn't keep up the good work when the Red Sox needed him in 2004. Will continue to pitch well... he hit 20 batters, most in the league. Teammates Pedro and Wakefield were second, with 16 each.

RP - Keith Foulke - He had a fantastic season, and was brilliant in the playoffs. Even when Francona was using him six times a week during the season, or leaving him out the mound until his arm fell off in October, he held together and did the job.

Despite the addition of Foulke, the Red Sox performed worse in one-run games and extra-inning games than in 2003. Last spring, I predicted that this would happen, but I couldn't explain why. I guess I need to read more often because the answer is obvious: run scoring.

Here in Toronto, the Jays' bullpen had some awful numbers; partly because they were bad, but also because they received no support from the offence. Fewer runs mean more closer games, fewer comebacks, and longer extra-inning games. When the Sox' bullpen-by-committee was sputtering in early 2003, the offence was scoring runs at a record pace, helping to mask the problem.

In 2004, the Boston offence sputtered a bit in the early months, so even with Foulke doing his thing, their record in close games wasn't so good. The offence started to click later in the season, helping to lift the team when Foulke and Timlin began to struggle a bit and Williamson was injured. Everyone got their act together in the playoffs, and... we know what happened.

New York Yankees

After the suffering the most humiliating postseason defeat by any team since... since... I dunno, since a long time, the Yankees went out and had a most peculiar offseason. They were rumoured to be a favourite destination for Carlos Beltran... but instead spent their money on pitching. And they didn't sign Tom Seaver in his prime.

The starting rotation, which was such a disappointment in 2004, was totally overhauled; and yet, it still appears to be held together with toilet paper. Randy Johnson and Kevin Brown are great pitchers who will both be in their 40's this season. Mussina will be 36; the Yankees also spent over $60 million on Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright, two pitchers who have had exactly one good season in their respective careers (Sixty Million Dollars!!!!!). Maybe it was the best that anyone could do, but frankly, I won't be shocked if none of these guys reaches 30 starts this season.

They also signed Tony Womack and resigned Ruben Sierra, personnel decisions you expect to see from the Tigers or Devil Rays, not the Yankees. I know I sound like I'm predicting doom and gloom for the Bombers, which is a little ridiculous given their star power and their dominance over the past decade. But if there ever was a year in which they are vulnerable, this would appear to be it; I can't see them beating Boston, and they are going to have a tough time beating out one of the clubs in the West for the wildcard. I give them a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs.

CA - Jorge Posada - He had a miserable June but was great in the other five months. Now 33 years old, has caught close to 1000 games in his career; I expect another All-Star season in 2005, but then will start to worry about a fast dropoff.

1B - Tino Martinez - He was among the better first basemen in the American League, which isn't saying much but it was still a nice year for a guy who appeared to be almost done. Martinez will be 37 and will resume his decline, but he's better than Tony Clark and a lot more predictable than Jason Giambi.

2B - Tony Womack - The Cardinals had the kind of season where just about everything went right (until the final week, of course). Womack, at age 34 and coming off of a .226 batting average in 2003, was inserted as the Cards' second baseman and leadoff hitter, and had the best year of his career.

So he signed with the Yankees during the winter. It's hard to see this deal working out, given that (1) Womack will be 35 years old; (2) his 2004 season was by far his best performance in the past five years, and quite frankly a fluke; (3) he's replacing Miguel Cairo, who had a real good year with the Yankees, and does everything better than Womack.

SS - Alex Rodriguez - Rodriguez' first year in New York was a bit of a disappointment, mostly because he struggled badly with runners in scoring position, and had an embarrassing moment in the playoffs. But he still hit home runs in a tough park, and played outstanding defence at third. It says something that A-Rod, even in an off-year, was still one of the top ten players in the league.

He's still a top MVP candidate in the AL entering this season. Will also apparently remain at third base... which to me, is an amazing contradiction, that an owner as obsessed with winning as George Steinbrenner, and who has been so disappointed the last four seasons, would tolerate having the team's best defensive shortstop play third base. But it might work out, because if the Yankees do decide to replace Joe Torre sometime soon, the new manager can immediately put his own stamp on the team by moving Rodriguez back to short.

SS - Derek Jeter - Jeter is an easy player to love, because he is a durable, exciting player who does everything well and has a flair for the dramatic. He's also an easy player to hate, because he receives far more hype than his talents warrant. There were countless times last season when I heard or read somebody muse about how Jeter was so much better than his statistics; that, to me, is insulting to men like Michael Jordan and Wayne Gretzky, the two greatest professional athletes of my lifetime, who managed to dominate their sports and lead their teams to championships, and when the dust settled had the numbers to justify the hype.

And then, in the playoffs, two balls hit Jeter right in the glove and bounce away, and Tim McCarver says that he had "no chance" on either of them. Again, it's insulting to players like Miguel Tejada and Cesar Izturis and Jack Wilson who make those plays with their eyes closed. That's not to dump on Jeter; all players make physical mistakes. But it's annoying that so many people can't see that it's wrong to give players credit for things they don't do, or to apologize for mistakes they make. Just treat them for what they are; in Jeter's case, a damn good player, but one who has limitations.

A lot of indicators, including his statistics but also the accounts of people who watch him regularly, suggest that Jeter's defence at short was much better than in previous seasons. But he's still the second-best defensive shortstop on a team that was, um, embarrassed in the postseason.

LF - Hideki Matsui - His season was a revelation. After a disappointing rookie year that fell well short of his "Godzilla" reputation, Matsui made some adjustments and had a magnificent sophomore campaign. He was one of the top ten players in the league, maybe one of the top five.

There is no reason to think that he can't continue to play at this level. The question is whether or not he can hit 40 homers; given his history, I expect that he will come close.

CF - Bernie Williams - He started 97 games in centre field, 50 at DH. Williams has no range left in the outfield, so you would expect the Yankees to move him to a less demanding defensive position. But Ruben Sierra needs his at bats, I guess, and Bernie needs to stretch his legs, so... at this writing, he is the starting centre fielder, in a big outfield between two lumbering sluggers.

I'm a little more optimistic about Bernie's bat. He's hit .260 two years in a row and is 36, but he still has some power and draws some walks, and I think he can raise that average 30 points.

RF - Gary Sheffield - The worst MVP argument of them all, and one that should be stopped immediately, is that a player should receive extra consideration for playing hurt. As in, Gary Sheffield should be the MVP because he had a great year with a bad shoulder, or Steve McNair should be MVP because he carried his team while injured.

The voters' hearts may be in the right place, but if we give a player an MVP for playing hurt, we'll have every manager and coach exaggerating every little injury that their star players have. Please, let's have none of that. Just evaluate the players for what they did on the field. As for Sheffield, he had a great season, and was an MVP candidate until he faded in September. It now seems almost certain that he will go into the Hall of Fame one day, assuming that he can avoid the taint of the BALCO thing.

DH - Jason Giambi - Last year, I was worried about Giambi's assortment of hand, wrist and knee injuries; little did I know that he would become the first player in baseball history to suffer from both a parasitic infection and a benign tumour on his pituitary gland in same season. The latter may have been a side effect of his admitted steroid use, or perhaps not, we're really not sure about a lot of these things.

Anyways, Giambi is now 34, and can't really do anything else except DH. If or when he's healthy he'll battle for at bats with Ruben Sierra. On Giambi's list of Similarity Scores, Ted Kluszewski is #6.

SP - Randy Johnson - At age 40, he was the best pitcher in the National League. If he comes close to repeating that performance, then it's hard to see how the Yankees could not make the playoffs. But he'll be 41 years old. Clemens was great last year at age 41, Nolan Ryan had a good year at age 41, so that bodes well... though physically, neither resembles Johnson in any way. He's really, really tall, and though his arm is fine, other parts of his body have shown some wear and tear.

SP - Mike Mussina - His season was a struggle; Mussina had a strained groin early in the year, then had to be disabled during the summer with an inflamed elbow. He didn't find any consistency until September, when he started to pitch brilliantly. He is still a good pitcher, perhaps not an ace anymore; at age 36, you have to be worried that the injuries will recur.

SP - Kevin Brown - Though the Yankees usually do a good job of spending their enormous payroll wisely, they occassionally get a little too greedy. Given that Brown was 39 years old, is hopelessly injury prone, has a miserable personality and is making over $15 million, he was a terrible risk for any team to acquire. But of course he's also a great pitcher, so the Yankees HAD to have him.

They got what they deserved. Brown had injuries and he sucked during the postseason, and now he's 40 and they still owe him another $15 million. Enjoy.

SP - Carl Pavano - He had a real good year with the Marlins, then cashed in with the Yankees for four years, $39 million. I'm not impressed. Pavano is 28 but throws the ball like he's 35. The Yankees are paying him to be an ace but more than likely they are getting Jeff Suppan.

SP - Jaret Wright - He had an amazing comeback season, the first time that he had pitched well since 1998. He has had, of course, catastrophic injuries to his shoulder, including a torn labrum and a torn rotator cuff, but the Yankees decided to give him a $21 million contract over three years.

If there are any lingering weaknesses in his shoulder, they didn't show up in the stats; Wright got getter as the season wore on. But he's obviously a high risk; it's also fair to point out that Leo Mazzone won't be his pitching coach, something not insignificant.

RP - Paul Quantrill - For the first four months of the year, Q was his usual, reliable, durable self. Before the All-Star break, he worked 56 innings in middle relief with a 3.05 ERA. Something then went horribly wrong; he had a 6.19 ERA in August, and a 10.50 ERA in September, then got hammered by the Red Sox in the ALCS. He's now 36; last year he appeared in 86 games, which led the league and set a Yankee record. A much lighter workload should be in order in 2005.

RP - Tom Gordon - He had a brilliant season, and for the first four months was as good as any reliever in baseball. But he was gassed in October; never before as a reliever had Gordon appeared in as many games or thrown as many innings. He is now 37, and has a long history of arm injuries; hindsight is 20/20, but it's hard to think of a good reason to test the limits of Gordon's durability at this point in his career.

RP - Mariano Rivera - Rivera had great numbers during the regular season, but once again, Joe Torre's bullpen strategy (which worked brilliantly from 1998-2000) failed. Torre pretty much babies Rivera during the regular season, saving him for the playoffs. In 2004, Rivera again led the league with 36 "Easy Saves" and rarely threw more than one inning in an appearance.

Three problems. (1) The Yankees' starting rotation sucked, putting more pressure on the bullpen; (2) while babying Rivera, Torre worked Quantrill and Gordon like carthorses and burned both of them out; (3) Torre was too slow to bring Rivera into Game Five of the ALCS, the third year in a row that he has been too slow bringing Mariano into a championship game.

Toronto Blue Jays

So they entered the 2004 season full of optimism, hoping to contend for the wild card. The manager, Carlos Tosca, suggested in the spring that they were capable of winning 95 games. They fell short, winning 67 instead. The manager was toasted, the GM was roasted, and all in all it was a crappy summer for baseball fans in Toronto.

After the season, the Jays lost Carlos Delgado to free agency, while making very modest additions to their roster, Scott Schoenewies and Shea Hillenbrand in particular. An organization that a year ago was being trumpeted as a model for the rest of baseball was suddenly beginning to resemble the Milwaukee Brewers. What, Jeffrey Hammonds wasn't available?

And then, in February, the announcement that this team would be ready to get back into contention in 2006. A massive new spending increase over the next three seasons will allow the Jays to compete in next year's free agent market, and even start trading for star assets this summer. All good news for the local fans, with one problem: it's not 2006 yet. The team has to survive 2005 first.

It could be another struggle. But despite the pessimism in this city right now, I am predicting that they will move back up a notch. In baseball, most teams regress towards the mean; in this division, the Blue Jays regress towards third place. They have been wildly unpredictable the past two seasons, and anyone who thinks that they will suddenly get predictable should be cautious.

They need some luck, of course. They need some veterans (Wells, Hinske, Batista) to get the job done, and they need some kids (Bush, Rios, Adams) to step up. But I'm very confident that Roy Halladay's injury last season was wildly overblown, and that he will be the best pitcher in the AL East this year. Well, as confident as you can be in any pitcher whose middle name isn't "True".

CA - Gregg Zaun/Greg Myers - This position was a problem for the Jays when the year began, and quickly got worse when Myers suffered a season-ending knee injury in the third week of April, and Kevin Cash didn't hit. At all. But Zaun saved the day; after getting cut in the spring by the Expos, he was a solid defender for the Jays and hit more than a little.

Zaun and Myers are both coming back in 2005; Zaun is 34, Myers 38. The veterans should provide an acceptable bridge to the near-future; Guillermo Quiroz, who is one of the best catching prospects in baseball, will get playing time later in the year, and with luck should be the starter in 2006.

1B - Eric Hinske - Hinske had his best year with the glove, making most of the easy plays and the occasional tough one. Unfortunately, he had a horrible season at the plate; the tradeoff was not a good one.

The Jays are keeping faith in him - or are stuck with his contract, depending on your viewpoint. He is moving to first base to replace Carlos Delgado. It might work; his rookie season was too solid to believe that it was just a fluke. But it's hard to guess at what has happened to him.

What is truly bizarre is his platoon split. In his rookie season, Hinske struggled against left-handers but mashed right-handers. Now, the split has reversed. He has made dramatic improvements against left-handers, and has hit them pretty well the past two seasons. But for some reason he can't hit right-handers.

Whatever. The Jays will probably give Hinske six weeks or so to get on track, but if he continues to struggle they will have to bite the bullet and look for other options.

2B - Orlando Hudson - A competent hitter and one of the best defensive second basemen in the league. He made a dramatic improvement against left-handed pitching, and now is just seeking some consistency at the plate, after hitting .348 in June, .165 in July and .346 in August. Hudson should be the best second baseman in the American League this year, if only because there really isn't any competition.

3B - Corey Koskie - Let's see, last year it was a stiff back, a strained sternum, a sore hamstring and an ankle sprain. These assorted ailments limited Koskie to only 118 games, the third year in a row that his playing time has declined. Before signing his contract with Toronto, he had to pass a physical; one expects that the standards were pretty low.

But when he was in the lineup he was pretty good. He hit 20 home runs in April, June and August, only five in the other three months. He doesn't hit left-handers well, but was a little better than usual. His batting and on-base percentages were down, but his slugging percentage was a career high.

At age 32, we should expect more of the same, some injuries mixed with some hot streaks. The Jays are hoping to get 135 games out of Koskie, and a nice match between his uppercut swing and the friendly confines of the SkyDome.

SS - Russ Adams - Young shortstop who hit well enough in 22 games with the Blue Jays to grab the starting job. He should hit for a decent average with some walks and doubles; there are also some valid concerns about his throwing arm. With luck, he is a young Jay Bell, and will learn to cope defensively while making improvements with the bat.

The backup is John McDonald, a real good glove who can't hit at all.

LF - Reed Johnson/Frank Catalanotto - Johnson had a surprise rookie year in 2003, but did little last year to suggest that he should be playing on a regular basis. His average dropped 25 points, he hit for less power, he hit into many more double plays while getting hit by fewer pitches. He is well-suited as a fourth outfielder; he doesn't hit enough to be a corner outfielder, and his defence isn't going to win him a regular job in centre. He can play better than he did last year in a more limited role.

Catalanotto was hitting .345 after two months before a groin injury wrecked his season. He went on the DL, tried to come back, struggled at the plate and then shut down his season in August and had surgery. The Jays gave him a two-year contract extension; a healthy Catalanotto is an attractive player, a .300 hitter with line drive power who is versatile in the field. But he hasn't been very healthy the past three seasons.

ADDENDUM: I neglected to mention Gabe Gross, whom everyone expected to start the year at Syracuse, but who instead had a monster spring and made the 25-man roster. Gross was once the team's best hitting prospect, but has spent the past three seasons struggling to earn a chance in the majors. He's in a make-or-break year, and so far is "making it"; if Gross has learned how to drive that low, inside pitch out of the park (and every generation, a small handful of southpaws figure it out), then he can obviously boost the team's fortunes in 2005.

CF - Vernon Wells - Wells was an almost perfect player in May, hitting for average and power, walking more often than he struck out, and playing some of his best defence in centrefield. The rest of the season, well, it wasn't so hot. Wells was one of the biggest disappointments for the Jays in their miserable year.

Two years ago, I called him the next Ken Landreaux, then watched him bash out 215 hits and 87 extra-base hits. Now, I honestly don't know what to think. He could be a superstar, or a frustrating player with flashes of greatness. I can see it breaking either way.

RF - Alex Rios - Rios had a pretty decent rookie season, marred only by his lack of power. He hit one home run in over 400 at bats, and had only one extra-base hit over his last 100 at bats. I know some Jays fans who are worried that this is all there is; I will argue, however, that Rios' power numbers were so freakishly low that they couldn't possibly represent his true level of ability. Everybody hits for more power than Rios did. Even David Eckstein and Tike Redman. And Rios is a big dude who has shown power in the minors.

It's like when Shane Spencer hit ten home runs in his first month in the majors, only backwards. It's such a freakish number that you just write it off as a fluke.

DH - Hack Hillenbrand - After the Jays lost Carlos Delgado and acquired Hillenbrand, many of their fans gathered together and had a group cry. Basically he's Joe Randa cast as a first baseman or DH. He doesn't put a lot of runs on the board, he has little defensive value, and his numbers have been helped by his home parks in Boston and Arizona.

My guess is that, in acquiring Hillenbrand, the Jays were looking less at his run production, and more at his durability and consistency. The Jays used 18 (eighteen!) players at the DH position last year, including Bobby Estalella - twice! That's actually not unusual; the Twins also used 18 DH's last season, while the Devil Rays used 20. Even the Mariners, with Edgar Martinez, used 14 DH's, including Ramon Santiago on one occasion.

It is a strange phenomenon in the American League, that so many teams use their worst hitters in the DH spot; it has become a crutch for managers who can't figure out a way to get their bench regular playing time. If Hillenbrand can do his thing - play 160 games, hit .300 with 20 homers - then at least he can help the Jays break a bad habit, and boost their production from their designated hitters.

SP - Roy Halladay - There was good news and there was bad news. The bad news was that, coming off of his Cy Young season, Halladay's wins dropped from 23 to 8, and he spent 12 weeks during the summer on the disabled list with arm soreness.

The good news is that there really isn't much evidence that there was anything wrong with him. He wasn't as sharp as usual early in the season, his teammates stunk, his arm felt a little funny, and so everybody decided to panic. The player, the team, the fans and the media all went skittish; after he went on the DL, my local paper reported that Roy had "micro tears" in his arm, which I think is something that you get by reaching for the remote control too often.

With luck, he will be healthy and pitch great in 2005. But if the pain/discomfort returns... well, I just don't think they can have him sit out and rest any longer. It's either (1) have surgery, or (2) learn to pitch with the pain. Since Dr. James Andrews wasn't able to find anything to operate on, Roy's just going to have to learn to pitch with whatever comes along.

The greats used to do it. Nolan Ryan pitched with a lot of pain, as did Carlton and Palmer. Carlton successfully altered his workout routine to strengthen the muscles that were bothering him. Obviously, it was ridiculous to let Ryan throw 170 pitches in a game when his arm was hurting, but I think the Jays were too cautious last year. Halladay should have returned at the end of August and made 5-6 starts before the end of the season.

I know a lot of fans in Toronto were skittish about Halladay's health last year, afraid that letting Roy pitch with a sore arm would cause further damage. But there is also the danger of babying him too much; a pitcher has to pitch to stay strong.

SP - Ted Lilly - He was healthy and had an effective season, one of the few things that went right for the Jays in 2004. When the curveball is working, Lilly can quickly rack up a bunch of strikeouts. But his control isn't good, and he is prone to giving up home runs; he got a little lucky last year that most of the 26 homers he served up were hit without many runners on base. Unless he starts walking fewer batters, he won't get better than he is now and will likely regress.

SP - Miguel Batista - His first season with Toronto was extremely disappointing; there really isn't anything good you can say about it. The Jays experimented with Batista as their closer late in the season, but appear to have abandoned the idea and have returned him to the starting rotation in 2005. Right now they are counting on him to make 30 starts and to not be terrible.

ADDENDUM: Well, they changed their mind again. Entering the 2005 season, the Jays have decided that Batista will be their closer. It could work out; some guys, like Jose Mesa or Jeff Shaw, thrive when given a chance at clsing games. More likey, Batista will struggle with his control, and have 1 or 2 key outings where he will have to prove to management that he can do the job; if he's not successful, he'll compete with Pete Walker for the 5th starting job.

SP - David Bush - 25-year-old pitcher, had an exceptional rookie season with the Blue Jays. Has good stuff, and knows what he is doing on the mound; Bush was a reliever, converted to a starter, and that appears to be a smart move.

SP - Josh Towers - Despite his success in 2003, the Jays sent him back to the minors after one start in April. The injury to Halladay forced them to bring him back up, and he kept winning.

Towers doesn't inspire a lot of confidence on the mound, but he has earned the chance to fail.

RP - Billy Koch - It is hard to believe, but when he was 25 years old, Koch walked 18 batters in 78 innings. Last year, after four seasons of progressive wildness, he walked 36 batters in 49 innings. And it's not effective wildness, either. Only 30 years old, averaged more than a strikeout per inning in 2004... of the relievers that the Jays have gambled on, without success, the past three years, Koch is both the most intriguing and frustrating.

RP - Justin Speier - Amidst the slaughter of the Jays' bullpen in 2004, Speier escaped with only a minor flesh wound. He went on the disabled list in May with a sore elbow; when he returned, he was asked to rescue the pen and had a horrible June.

But he pitched exceptionally well in the second half, and enters 2005 as the team's best reliever, by far. He won't be Brad Lidge, but there's no obvious reason why he can't settle nicely into the second tier of closers.

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore took a preliminary step back to respectability in 2004, spending some money on free agents Miguel Tejada and Javier Lopez, and managing to move out of their fourth-place rut and into... third place. Owner Peter Angelos was apparently hoping for more, and there were rumours that manager Lee Mazzilli would not back back in 2005, but it appears that he will get another crack.

There were then some rumours that the Orioles would make a splash in the free agent market, in an attempt to reach the next level. They were rumoured to be interested in just about everybody, but didn't attract any significant free agents. At that point, Angelos should have kept his money in his pocket - the Orioles aren't going to contend in 2005 anyways. Better to wait a year and see what the hell they've got with all these young pitchers.

But at the end of January, they decided that they had to have Sammy Sosa, which sounds to me like a team making a major move just for the sake of it. My guess is, Sosa hits 40 home runs, and the Orioles congratulate themselves on a good deal - then wonder how they finished in last place.

CA - Javier Lopez - He didn't hit 43 homers, but otherwise was terrific. He had no chance of duplicating his 2003 season, but this was a fine follow-up; he played his usual amount behind the plate, and thanks to the DH set a career high for at bats. The Orioles got their money's worth.

1B - Rafael Palmeiro - He failed to hit 30 homers in a season since... well, it was a long time. Just another first baseman now; 40 years old, but his career might still have legs. Palmeiro hit only .190 against left-handers, but he can still mash righties pretty good, so he might be a solid half of a platoon. Finished strong, hit .318 with nine homers in September.

2B - Brian Roberts - He had an interesting season, and is a half-step away from being a real good player. Roberts led all second basemen with 50 doubles and 29 stolen bases; he also drew 73 walks and scored 107 runs. He was durable at second base. If he can raise his batting average a bit and improve his stolen base percentage, he could easily be the best second baseman in the league this year.

3B - Melvin Mora - He's the man who gives hope to all late bloomers. Mora, who didn't reach the majors until he was 27, has now evolved into an almost perfect hitting machine.

SS - Miguel Tejada - He may have been the best player in the American League, depending on how you feel about his defence. Tejeda had his best year at the plate, though it wasn't that much better than his previous two years. The 150 RBI were the result of a combination of timely hitting and opportunity.

With Alex Rodriguez apparently stuck at third, Tejada is now pretty clearly the best shortstop in baseball.

LF - Larry Bigbie - Bigbie got a chance to play on a regular basis, but wasn't making the most of it... until he hit .333 in August and .340 in September. He has made incredibly slow progress, despite his reputation as a guy who can hit... but who knows, maybe he's found his groove. Obviously, he will be getting a lot of at bats in 2005.

CF - Luis Matos - A talented young player who was supposed to fill an important role in the lineup, Matos instead had a miserable season. He struggled with the bat the first half of the season, then had season-ending surgery on his shin in August.

Will be 26 years old this season; he's still capable of hitting .280 with 20 homers, but the Orioles may have less patience with him this season. His ability to play centre field will also have an important impact on his future.

RF - Sammy Sosa - As a hitter, Sammy is pretty much back to where he was ten years ago, when he was a low-average, undisciplined hitter who could muscle out home runs. Now, however, he is prone to injuries and has no speed left. Each of the past three seasons has been a dramatic decline.

Now 36 years old; the best case scenario for Baltimore is that Sammy pulls a Dick Allen, finds his happy zone and hits 45 home runs, then retires in 2006 to look after his horses.

DH - Jay Gibbons - Guys like this are supposed to have their best season at age 27, but Gibbons had his worst. He struggled most of the year, but had an especially bad June when he tried to play with a strained hip flexor (and was eventually DLed).

He still has power, and is equally effective (or, in 2004, ineffective) against lefties and righties. He will be in someone's lineup in 2005, will bounce back with 25 home runs.

IF/OF - David Newhan - Speaking of late bloomers, Newhan got his first real chance last season at age 30 and went crazy during the summer months. He faded as the year wore on, but it was a fun ride; he hit .300, he hit home runs, he hit triples, and he stole bases. You can't get much more exciting than that.

SP - Sidney Ponson - Ponson is (1) not as good a pitcher as he looked in 2003, and (2) not as bad a pitcher as he looked in 2004. He's somewhere in between, a solid rotation guy.

SP - Rodrigo Lopez - He recovered from a brutal sophomore season and pitched very well. Lopez started strong, wilted a bit during the summer but finished very strong as a regular in the starting rotation. His numbers were better in relief, but a 3.95 ERA as a starting pitcher is still very good. Questions remain unanswered about his ability to throw 200 innings in a season.

SP - Daniel Cabrera - Huge young pitcher who made his debut in May, was a sensation for two months, and then completely lost the strike zone the rest of the season. 23 years old, stands over 6'5" and weighs 230 lbs; he was rushed to the majors after making only five starts at AA Bowie. He has at times overpowered minor league hitters, but he also has some serious control problems. An interesting young pitcher, very much a project.

SP - Erik Bedard - Also a rookie in 2004, Bedard had a promising season. He looked super in 2002, but then had ligament replacement surgery in his elbow. The Orioles babied him last season, and shut him down in September as a precaution. He had some control problems, but he looks like he could be really good.

SP - Matt Riley - Another Orioles rookie in 2004, Riley has come a long way back. He was a teenage sensation way back in 1998, armed with both an awesome fastball and curve. He had Tommy John surgery in 2000, and is just now getting his career started. Still only 25 years old, still throws pretty hard and has the wicked curve. Last year, the good news was a dominating performance with Ottawa, and a great September with Baltimore. The bad news was control problems and a trip to the disabled list early in the season with shoulder soreness.

Of the Cabrera/Bedard/Riley trio, Riley appears to have both the highest upside but also the least chance of making it.

RP - B.J. Ryan - A veteran LOOGY who redefined his career by throwing 87 quality innings for the Orioles. Against left-handers, Ryan is almost unhittable; he held southpaws to a .094 average. He has improved his performance against right-handers, and has also improved his control, while pumping his strikeout rate over 12 K/9 innings. Deserves a chance to be a closer.

RP - Jorge Julio - In his second year as closer, he was just mediocre; he saved 36 games but also had some bad outings. Throws in the upper 90's, but doesn't have good control and doesn't get a big number of strikeouts. To survive as a closer he needs either better control or a better strikeout pitch.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Last year, I wrote that the Rays were an excellent bet to lose 95 games. It was touch-and-go in the early summer, when the Rays surged over .500 and moved within three games of Boston. But they tanked in the second half and finished with 91 losses, a little better than I expected but not too far off.

What a weird year. The Rays started horribly, then were the best team in baseball for about six weeks. They appeared to have "arrived" ahead of schedule, until reality sunk in. When they were peaking in June, Lou Piniella was asked to explain his team's performance; he suggested that the trip to Japan for Opening Day had screwed them up early in the year. Not a bad explanation, but the more obvious answer - that they were just getting lucky and would soon turn back into pumpkins - turned out to be the correct one.

The Rays won't have a winning season in 2005, but the future does look bright. On their major league roster, Carl Crawford took a big step forward, while Rocco Baldelli had a solid sophomore season. On the farm, B.J. Upton progressed from "superprospect" to "übersuperprospect". Jorge Cantu looks good; Delmon Young had an impressive debut season at age 19. Most amazingly, they somehow converted Victor Zambrano into another superprospect, Scott Kazmir.

They have a remarkable core of young talent. I'm still not convinced that management knows what it is doing; sure, they outsmarted the Mets, but that's not saying much. But barring disaster, this team should start to rise in 2006.

CA - Toby Hall - Hall's batting record, the past three seasons:

  AVG    OBA    SLG    OPS  OPS+
 .258   .293   .376   .669   77       
 .253   .295   .380   .675   77      
 .255   .300   .366   .666   76  

He is freakishly consistent. Unfortunately, he's also not very good.

1B - Travis Lee - He began the year as the Yankees' first baseman, but a month into the season had surgery on his left shoulder and missed the rest of the year. He now returns to Tampa Bay, where he played in 2003, the only year in his career when he didn't really suck.

With so much young talent, why are the Devil Rays hoarding crappy veterans?

2B - Jorge Cantu/Roberto Alomar - In his second year at Durham, Cantu muscled up and hit 22 home runs, which was more than he had hit in his previous five years in the minors combined. He also hit 33 doubles, then hit another 20 doubles in 50 games with the Devil Rays, along with a .300 average.

There are still some questions about Cantu, such as whether he can play second base, and whether his home run surge was for real. But he is only 23 years old; if the answer to either question is "yes" then he has a bright future.

Alomar needs 276 hits for 3000 in his career, which is kind of amazing for a guy who is only 37 and has stunk it up the past three seasons. What once looked like a sure bet now looks like it could take a few more years.

3B - B.J. Upton - He is the best teenage player in the majors since Alex Rodriguez. The Devil Rays don't like his defence at shortstop, and may apparently send Upton to the minors to learn third base while Alex Gonzalez handles the job in the majors. This is a disturbing sign that your 2005 Tampa Bay Devil Rays are as shitty an organization as they have ever been.

SS - Julio Lugo - He had a pretty decent season playing every day. The Devil Rays have a super shortstop prospect in Upton, but appear to want to leave Lugo where is. I can't say that I blame them; shortstop has been such a black hole over the years for Tampa Bay that they must be reluctant to mess with something that is working. More of the same in 2005.

LF - Carl Crawford - At age 22, Crawford took a great leap forward, almost doubling his output of extra-base hits. He modestly improved his plate discipline, and remained a very good base stealer.

He's not quite an elite outfielder, yet, but has lots of time to continue his impressive progress.

CF - Rocco Baldelli - His season was a small improvement on his rookie year. He hit with more power, had more walks and fewer strikeouts, and was a better percentage base-stealer. His batting average was down, partly because he tried to play with a strained right quadricep in August that later put him on the disabled list.

The good news is, he's only 23, and has lots of time to develop into a star. The bad news is, he tore his left ACL after the season and will likely miss three months, if not more.

RF - Aubrey Huff - He had a horrible April in which he batted .191; the rest of the year was business as usual. A formidable power hitter, will hit 40 homers in a season.

RF - Danny Bautista - He played on a regular basis for the first time in his career, and was pretty bad. A .286 average is OK, but he has little power, poor plate discipline, and he grounded into 20 double plays. And his numbers, such as they are, receive a big boost from the BOB.

In Tampa Bay, Bautista will get playing time while Baldelli is out. He's OK as a fourth outfielder.

DH - Josh Phelps - As a Toronto Blue Jays fan, I have loved Josh Phelps ever since he was in the minor leagues. That he was traded less than two years after a sensational rookie season, without coming close to reaching his potential, was the absolute worst development of a miserable season.

Phelps' main problem last year was that he was hitting a huge number of ground balls when facing right-handed pitching. The Jays obviously feel that the flaw in his swing is irreversible. It was a real "challenge trade" for GM Ricciardi, to deal the struggling young stud but keep the struggling hitting coach.

Phelps hit .210 against right-handers, and was used mostly in a limited platoon role last season by the Indians. Now he has to convince Lou Piniella to put him in the lineup on a regular basis. Josh has real power, but it's a long road back to where he was in 2002.

SP - Dewan Brazelton - The Rays' #1 pick in 2001, he is now 25 years old, and he still has no idea what he is doing on the mound. Brazelton throws hard, but he doesn't get strikeouts and last year gave up a lot of fly balls. That's not a recipe for success. He has his health, which is most important, but he desperately needs a strikeout pitch to survive in the starting rotation; moving to the bullpen may be the best thing for Brazelton in the long term.

SP - Scott Kazmir - Acquired from the Mets in return for Victor Zambrano. It is always possible, I suppose, that the Mets know something that we don't, and that Kazmir's body will just fall apart. Until that happens, he is an extraordinary young pitcher. In his minor league career, he averaged more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings; in his seven starts with Tampa Bay last season, age 20, he continued to average over 11 strikeouts per game.

SP - Jorge Sosa - For the third year in a row, he split time between the starting rotation and the bullpen, but didn't have much success in either role. He pitched well in June, as did everybody in Tampa Bay, but the rest of the season was a struggle.

Sosa is a late convert to pitching, and has some nasty stuff. In his rookie season in 2002, he struck out only 4.35 batters per game; in 2003, he struck out 5.04 batters per game. Last year, he figured something out, because his strikeout rate soared to 8.54 K/9.

He walks too many batters and gives up too many home runs, but... to make that kind of leap forward in one season, you gotta think that there's some potential here. Sosa will have a better season, with a small chance to be really nasty.

SP - Mark Hendrickson - Like many Rays, he pitched really well in June when the team was making its run, not so well the rest of the season. Hendrickson survived another year in the starting rotation, but it is now clear that this is as good as it gets, and it's not pretty. I expect his career to go downhill, fast; I'll be shocked if he's still starting games in August. He might survive a couple of years as a LOOGY.

SP - Casey Fossum - He had a spectacularly bad season, made even worse by his crappy teammates. But his peripheral numbers are still OK; if Glendon Rusch can come back, so can Casey Fossum. It may just take awhile.

RP - Jesus Colome - A hard thrower with control problems, Colome had a solid season in 2003, but began 2004 in the minors, for reasons that I don't quite understand. He did not join Tampa until June, then pitched brilliantly for a month while the Devil Rays made their charge to .500. He struggled in July, pitched brilliantly in August then was shut down with right shoulder tendinitis.

He was checked out after the season, and no damage was found. He's a good pitcher who will get better if he is healthy; at the moment, his arm hurts and no one knows why.

RP - Lance Carter - The Rays' closer, and lone All-Star, in 2003, Carter did not pick up a single save last year. But he was a solid citizen in middle relief, and had his best season. 30 years old, has no future as a closer and only one or two years left as a generic middle reliever.

RP - Danys Baez - In some ways, Baez' season was less impressive than in 2003 - the strikeouts were down, while the hits and walks were up. But he had a lower ERA, fewer losses and fewer blown saves; such is the life of a closer. Baez is what he was last year, a decent pitcher, not terribly well-suited to be a closer but he has the job. More of the same in 2005.

CENTRAL

Minnesota Twins

The Twins have now entered uncomfortable Oakland Athletics territory. Three years ago, they were celebrated as a small-market team that bucked the odds to win their division and a playoff round. Now, after three division titles... impatience is starting to brew. It's time to take the next step forward and win a pennant.

They didn't do anything to help their cause during the winter. And they may not have to; they already have the best pitcher in the league in Johan Santana, and there's no obvious reason why a healthy Joe Mauer can't be an MVP candidate. They will have Justin Morneau for a full season.

But they still have gaping holes at second base and shortstop, and it's a little puzzling that they didn't make a greater effort to sign a Polanco or a Cairo or a Cora. The Indians' backups at second and short are better than the Twins' starters at those positions.

I think that the Twins are still the favourites to win their division. But though I may be overstating the case, it sure seems like that they could have swung the odds heavily in their favour without a lot of effort.

CA - Joe Mauer - He entered the season as the top prospect in baseball, and the Rookie of the Year favourite. He was fantastic when he was in the lineup, but only played 35 games due to knee injuries. There is no doubt that Mauer can hit; the question is whether he will have to move to another position.

1B - Justin Morneau - Nero fiddled while Rome burned; for three months, the Twins fiddled while Morneau burned up the International League. He was finally called up, and quickly established himself as the Twins' top power threat. Should hit 30-40 homers a year for several years to come.

2B - Luis Rivas - Once again, he was bad with both the bat and the glove. The Twins need to find another option.

3B - Mike Cuddyer/Eric Munson - Cuddyer has been a good hitter in the minors the past few seasons, but has only been teased with limited playing time with the Twins. Last year, they gave him 300 at bats, and he hit well enough to win the starting job at third now that Koskie has gone. The Twins, surely, have learned from the Lew Ford experience, and will let Cuddyer play.

Or maybe not, since they also acquired Eric Munson. Munson had an awesomely crappy season for Detroit. He is a bad defensive third baseman who hit .212 and showed pathetic plate discipline. His only positive was 19 home runs... which, really, is nothing.

SS - Fidel Castro - Or have I got him mixed up with Juan Castro? Or Nick Punto? Or Augie Ojeda? Or Jason Bartlett? I haven't the foggiest idea who will play shortstop for the Twins in 2005. But when you are replacing Cristian Guzman, I guess there isn't any great pressure to make a decision.

LF - Shannon Stewart - Stewart had the same season that he has every year, except that he missed a chunk of time in the summer with plantar fasciitis in his right foot, then had hamstring problems in the fall. He hits a little over .300 every year, with some power and some walks, but is getting fragile; as he turns 31, his health could turn into a major issue.

CF - Torii Hunter - Another Twin who's consistent at the plate, Hunter struggled with an assortment of injuries but had his second-best year with that bat. He is a fine defensive player, and he had enough speed to steal 21 bases. He had a scary run-in with an outfield wall in August, and though he came out of it OK, he's going to have to avoid those as he gets older and more brittle.

RF - Jacques Jones - In the past, Jones has struggled badly against left-handers but hammered righties very well. Last year, his performance against southpaws improved - for him, a .245 average is an improvement - but he struggled against right-handers, and the tradeoff was not a good one. It was the worst season of his career. He also made an infamously awful throw in the playoffs against New York.

Jones is an unusual player, a guy with poor plate discipline who has twice hit .300, and a guy who hits a huge number of ground balls but also hits 20 homers a year. It is essential that he keep his average around .300; my guess is, the Twins will finally have to move him into a platoon role.

DH - Lew Ford - The Twins, once criticized for bringing Johan Santana along too slowly, have recently been praised for their handling of their young star pitcher. He is, after all, the best pitcher in baseball, so they must have handled him right. Right?

Maybe, maybe not; I doubt that it would have hurt Santana to have begun starting games a few months earlier in his career. The problem is, the philosophy is systemic; they wait too long with all of their young players, Joe Mauer excepted. There was no reason to keep Justin Morneau in the minors for three months last season, while giving his at bats to Jose Offerman. They have the talent, but they don't always use it; they have been very lucky to be playing in a division with four pussycats the past three seasons.

For years and years, Ford did nothing but hit in the minors, and they kept sending him back. Finally, at age 27, injuries gave him an opportunity, and he had a terrific season. What's really strange is that other teams are not trying to raid the Twins' system. There are other guys, like the three Mike's (Ryan, Restovich, Cuddyer) who are just wasting their lives with the Twins, not ever getting a real chance to play. The Red Sox grabbed David Ortiz, and hit jackpot; Lew Ford should have been playing for another team by now, and it was just good fortune, for both him and the Twins, that he has established himself as a quality regular.

SP - Johan Santana - Santana, compared to another Cy Young winner, Roger Clemens in 1998:

         WN  LS  GS  CG  SH    IP     HT   HR   BB   SO    ERA  ERA+
Santana  20   6  34   1   1   228.0  156   24   54  265   2.61  182
Clemens  20   6  33   5   3   234.7  169   11   88  271   2.65  176

Santana had better control, Rocket was stingy in giving up home runs. After his 1997 Cy Young season, Clemens struggled early in 1998 with groin troubles, and on May 29 was 5-6 with a 3.50 ERA. He won his next 15 decisions.

After he lost his start on May 29, 2004, Santana was 2-3 with a 5.61 ERA. He had been plagued early in the spring by a wonky elbow and some forearm spasms. I remember when the Twins visited Toronto in mid-May, and Johan was beaten by the Jays, Twins fans were asking "what's wrong with Santana?"

But over the next four months he was 18-3 with a 1.51 ERA, an incredible performance that was richly deserving of the Cy Young Award. At age 26, health is his only concern.

SP - Brad Radke - Radke has now pitched brilliantly for a season and a half, after emerging from a mid-career crisis midway through the 2003 season. Now 32 years old, his strikeouts are going back up while his walks continue to go down, a very nice trend.

SP - Carlos Silva - After two years in the bullpen, Silva won a starting job and gave the Twins 200 quality innings. He won his first five decisions, sank into mediocrity for four months, then re-emerged and won his last four decisions.

In 2003, Silva walked 37 batters and threw 12 wild pitches in 87 innings. Last season, he walked 35 batters and threw five wild pitches in 203 innings. Obviously, he just decided to throw as many strikes as possible and hope for the best. It worked for awhile, but he will need to make some adjustments to have any long-term success.

SP - Kyle Lohse - He had a miserable season from start to finish. The promise that Lohse showed a year ago quickly dried up; his strikeout rate has now fallen three years in a row, not what you are looking for in a young right-hander. He now appears to be taking the Jeff Suppan career path.

SP - Joe Mays - He is trying to make a comeback. The fact that Mays can still throw overhand is just about his only positive.

RP - Juan Rincon - Apart from a forgettable ALDS, Rincon had a hell of a season. He stepped up and spent most of the year blowing the ball past major league hitters; 26 years old, will again be Nathan's setup man but obviously has a closer's job in line for him somewhere down the road.

RP - Joe Nathan - The Twins, Athletics and Blue Jays all tried the same bullpen strategy in 2004 - to pick up an inexpensive middle reliever and convert him into a closer. Three small market teams with different philosophies, but forced by circumstances to adopt the same practice whether they like it or not.

The strategy failed in Oakland and Toronto, but worked out spectacularly well in Minnesota, where Nathan pitched brilliantly and saved 44 games. Among the high-priced "established" closers who changed teams, Keith Foulke and Armando Benitez were outstanding, but Eddie Guardado and Billy Wagner were both disappointments.

Obviously, there isn't a right or a wrong here; it's just trying to get a handle on the risks involved. The strategy of converting a middleman into a closer is inexpensive, but probably only works 20-30% of the time. An established closer may work out 70-80% of the time, but is an expensive albatross if he fails.

Cleveland Indians

Mark Shapiro, the Indians' G.M., was hired after the 2001 season to rebuild the franchise. Three losing seasons later, they appear to be pretty damn close to contending again.

The offence started slowly and struggled in September, but was a juggernaut in June, July and August, one of the best in baseball. The bullpen was horrible early in the season, but got better as the year wore on. At one point in the early summer, they had three quality starting pitchers, until Cliff Lee's meltdown in the second half. For much of the summer it appeared that they were close to putting everything together and challenging the Twins, but it never happened.

Entering 2005, the Indians have put together a low-cost, big risk starting rotation with a potential high reward. Sabathia's weight, Millwood's elbow, Lee's second half and Westbrook's low strikeout rate are all significant causes for concern - but I like what they've done. They should be ready to contend in 2006, and with just a little luck could arrive a year ahead of schedule.

CA - Victor Martinez - A terrific hitting prospect who was having a great year with the bat until he slumped a bit over the final two months. 26 years old, a switch-hitter who is strong from both sides of the plate. He is obviously one of the most valuable players in the league.

1B - Ben Broussard - A good left-handed power hitter, but now 28 years old, has still yet to play on a regular basis. He entered the season with a career .174 average against southpaws, but last year hit .368 against lefties. He's not going to be a star but he also deserves the chance to play in 150 games; in addition to Cleveland, I can think of a few teams (Oakland, Kansas City, Toronto, Atlanta, Seattle, etc.) who should be willing to give him that opportunity.

2B - Ron Belliard - After years of being disappointed by Belliard, I finally wrote him off - and he responded with his best season since his rookie year. In the end, it wasn't all that good - his .417 average in April was offset by his .141 average in September, and the months in between were up and down.

Given his history, and his inconsistency during the season, I wouldn't expect a repeat in 2005.

3B - Aaron Boone - Boone played a fateful game of pickup basketball last winter, during which he tore his ACL, prompting the Yankees to acquire Alex Rodriguez. Boone was released and ended up with the Indians; he didn't play a single game last year, but will open 2005 as their third baseman.

His chances for success don't look good, given that he is 32 years old, he just missed a full season with injury, and he wasn't that great to begin with. And the Indians already have a good third baseman, Casey Blake, whom they are moving to the outfield. I will be surprised if Boone plays in 100 games.

SS - Alex Cora/Jhonny Peralta - After he was rushed to the majors in 2003, Peralta returned to the minors and had a magnificent season at Buffalo. Now 24 years old, he has nothing left to prove in the minors. Presumably, he will get a chance to win the starting shortstop job in the spring. But just in case...

...the Indians signed Alex Cora. Cora had some kind of bizarre season. A wonderful defensive second baseman, he had a real good year with the bat after a terrible 2003 performance. On May 12, he had the best at bat of the year, hitting a home run off of Matt Clement on the 18th pitch of the at bat (during which he had fouled off 14 straight pitches!) He also had more home runs (10) then doubles (9), after entering the season with 75 career doubles but only 17 career homers.

I have no idea what his real level of ability is; his batting performance has been all over the place the past three seasons. Whatever he does, his glove will keep him in the lineup, wherever he is needed.

LF - Coco Crisp - He surprised just about everybody by muscling up and hitting 15 home runs, while batting .297 and continuing to improve his plate discipline. Crisp is now 25 years old, so his future his now; he has made real improvements, and just needs to keep doing what he's doing.

The Indians have lots of outfield options, including Jody Gerut, who is rehabbing a torn ACL, and Ryan Ludwick, who is coming back from knee surgery. Crisp may also play centre field if Sizemore struggles.

CF - Grady Sizemore - A multi-talented young player whom the Indians received in the Colon deal a couple of years ago. He is now 23 years old, and it appears that he will be really good.

RF - Casey Blake - Where the hell did that come from? Blake was one of the best hitting third basemen in the league, and he's always had a good glove. I'm not exactly sure why it's Blake, and not Boone, who is moving to the outfield; last year was a career year, and I doubt that Blake will hit enough to be a quality right fielder.

DH - Travis Hafner - After a long, slow journey through the Rangers' farm system, Hafner finally broke through with a big season in Cleveland, leading the American League in OPS. He was 27 years old and has peaked, but he should remain among the better hitters in the league for another five years.

IF - Jose Hernandez - He had a wonderful comeback season in a platoon role, providing good power at all of the infield positions. He will enter the season without a clear role, getting at bats mostly against lefties; but he could easily get more playing time if/when Belliard or Boone fails.

OF - Jody Gerut - Gerut had no power in the minors, and last season hit only 11 home runs. His rookie year is his only professional season in which he has hit for significant power. I'm not optimistic about his future.

DH - Juan Gonzalez - He suffered a lower back injury in May and never came back. Some time, Gonzalez is going to have an injury that he won't recover from. I'd bet even money that this is the one.

SP - C.C. Sabathia - Sabathia was having a great season until the end of June, when he experienced some soreness in his shoulder. He missed a start, but didn't go on the DL. Bad decision, as it turned out; Sabathia struggled with an ERA over six in both July and August, then had his season ended by a hamstring injury.

He's a real good pitcher, only 24 years old but with four quality seasons under his belt. But he's still overweight, listed officially at 290 lbs. The shoulder soreness is a concern, but I'm equally worried about the hamstring, and his ability to stay healthy as he ages.

SP - Kevin Millwood - He had some elbow soreness last year, but during the offseason teams treated him as if he was carrying bubonic plague. He eventually signed a one-year, incentive-laden deal with the Indians.

When he was on the mound, Millwood pitched very well; his peripheral numbers are still very good, and he's only 30 years old. He's always going to miss starts with injury problems, but I don't think he's as big of a risk as, say, Jaret Wright. And he's a much, much better pitcher than former teammate Eric Milton, who signed a guaranteed $25 million contract with Cincinnati.

SP - Cliff Lee - He was 9-1 at the break, then completely forgot how to pitch, posting ERAs of 7.06 in July, 7.18 in August and 7.94 in September.

Lee is a good young pitcher, but... wow.

SP - Jake Westbrook - He had a real good year with the Indians. Westbrook is an extreme groundball pitcher who doesn't strike many batters out. As a general rule, these guys don't last long when they're right-handed. Westbrook will either develop a better strikeout pitch and remain a solid pitcher, or his career will implode shortly.

Of course, he could always surprise us and become Tim Hudson, but that's a longshot.

RP - Arthur Rhodes - He was given an opportunity to be Oakland's closer, but bombed early in the season before he went on the DL with back spasms. He was traded twice in the offseason, and is now with Cleveland. He can still help a team in a limited role; though who knows, he may get a chance to save some games again, it's not as if the Indians have Eric Gagne as their closer.

RP - David Riske - He has the best stuff in the Indians bullpen, but last year had control problems, and struggled in the closer's role. Riske will start the year as a setup man, then will get another crack as a closer when Wickman breaks down in June.

RP - Rafael Betancourt - Veteran reliever, just getting himself established at age 30. Betancourt has always posted ridiculous strikeout rates in the minor leagues, but his career has taken a few wrong turns. He shot for the moon in 2004 when he was given a chance to claim the closer's job; that ended with seven blown saves and a trip to the DL with biceps tendinitis. He is nasty, and is capable of being a dominant setup man if he can stay healthy.

RP - Bob Wickman - He only threw 30 innings for Cleveland, and wasn't great, but was able to bring some order to a bullpen that had a disastrous first half of the season. Wickman saved 13 games in 14 chances, and will have the closer's job this spring. He's 36, he's huge, and has a history of arm problems: the same mix of problems that affected Rod Beck last season. I doubt that he'll throw 30 innings.

Chicago White Sox

When Ken Williams took over as White Sox GM in 2001, he inherited a team that (1) led the league with 95 wins in 2000; (2) was playing in what many people believe is the weakest division in baseball, and (3) was named "Organization of the Year" by Baseball America. In four years, the Sox have not returned to the postseason.

Maybe the expectations were unfair. Maybe it was a fluke that that team won 95 games. Maybe the AL Central isn't as bad as we think it is. Maybe the good folks at Baseball America were off their rocker when they wrote all those nice things about the Sox' farm system. Or maybe, you know, the current management regime just hasn't worked out.

And yet, Williams' position appears to be solid. Looking ahead to 2005, I'm certainly not going to pick them to win the division — fool me four times, but not five! I will say, however, that the roster that Williams has put together is interesting; it may not be very good, but the Sox have put together an eclectic mix of talent that should remain competitive.

CA - A.J. Pierzynski - In his first year in San Francisco, his batting average fell 40 points, and he threatened the record for GIDP, finishing with 27. He also collapsed in September, when the Giants fell short of making the playoffs. All that left was his defence... and the Giants weren't impressed. They waived A.J. and signed Mike Matheny after the season.

The Good Kenny Williams snatched him up for one year at a cheap price. Only 28 years old; though Pierzynski has his warts, in the past he has been a .300 hitter with line drive power. He'll be playing for a contract and will be competing against the Twins, who traded him in the first place; he should return to form.

1B - Paul Konerko - He essentially did what he does every year, with the exception of the horrible first half of 2003. Konerko thrived in the rejigged dimensions of the Phone Booth in Chicago, smacking 29 home runs at home. His average was down a bit, his walks were up... there is no obvious reason to expect him to get better or worse this year.

2B - Willie Harris/Tadahito Iguchi - Harris played a little centre field until the White Sox discovered they had Aaron Rowand, then moved back to second base. Now, he's been moved to the bench, where, quite frankly belongs.

The White Sox signed Iguchi to be their regular second baseman. He's a Japanese star, 30 years old and reportedly has both a good bat and a good glove.

Harris has limited skills; he doesn't hit for average or power, and can't hit left-handers at all. He is fast but not a great base stealer. He is versatile and showed an ability to draw a few walks, and might be valuable on the end of someone's bench. But there's no way that he should bat 400 times in a season.

3B - Joe Crede - Crede had just about the worst season imaginable; like Eric Hinske, he has taken two giant steps backward after a solid rookie season in 2002. His attempts to be a Dean Palmer clone have apparently failed; the only good news is that he will be 27 this year, the same age that Butch Hobson had his "career year" at.

SS - Juan Uribe - Whatever Ozzie Guillen was selling, Uribe appeared to be buying. A castoff from Colorado, Uribe was awesome in April and May, was equally horrible in June and July but then was great in August in September. Still only 25 years old, and will take over at shortstop in 2005; if you view the glass half-empty, then last season was a fluke. If it's half-full, then he's similar to Alfonso Soriano at the same age, except he's a lot better. I'm actually really interested to see what he does.

LF - Scott Podsednik - He has developed into an outstanding base stealer; unfortunately, after a great April his bat soured for five months. A late bloomer, now 29 years old; not as good as he looked in 2003 but better than he was last year. Podsednik can hit .270, and if he continues to steal bases then he will be a quality player.

CF - Aaron Rowand - Ken Williams has devoted a lot of energy into thinking up ways to keep Rowand out of the lineup. In 2002, he acquired Kenny Lofton; in 2003, it was Carl Everett, and in 2004... Willie Harris.

Anyways, Rowand finally got a starting job after hitting .310 with power and excellent defence. He should be an All-Star... but if he hits .230 in April, he will be benched in favour of Doug Glanville. That's just the way the White Sox do things.

RF - Jermaine Dye - After losing Magglio Ordoñez to free agency, the Sox went out and signed Maggs Lite. Less filling, but tastes great... um, never mind. Dye is only 31, but is so far removed from his best seasons that it is hard to get excited about him.

DH - Frank Thomas - Was hitting the crap out of the ball before he suffered a stress fracture in his left ankle. 37 years old, still a great hitter when healthy; he may not be ready for spring training.

SP - Freddy Garcia - I was no great fan of the Garcia deal when it was made, nor the subsequent contract that he signed. The trade of Jeremy Reed, a terrific prospect who had an OK season at AAA, was yet another example of this organization souring on a player and quickly giving up on him.

However, given that (1) Garcia pitched his best ball since 2001, and (2) the free agent market went bonkers after the season, the contract doesn't look so bad. Garcia appears to be ready to re-establish himself among the best pitchers in the league.

SP - Mark Buehrle - Won 16 games, now has 69 wins through age 25. Also set career-bests for strikeouts and strikeout/walk ratio, suggesting that he will pitch well into his 30's.

SP - Jon Garland - For the third straight year, he won 12 games and had an ERA that was almost exactly league average. Only 25 years old, but still appears to headed out of the league in a couple of years.

SP - Jose Contreras - He had a TV Movie-of-the-Week season, which unfortunately did not produce great results on the field, and saw him traded by the Yankees. Still, Contreras appears to have all of the tools required to be a good pitcher; he just needs to throw more strikes, something that he presumably was able to do in the past.

SP - Orlando Hernandez - One cannot deny that the core of the Yankees' championships of the late 90's was pretty amazing. In midsummer, New York's starting rotation was starting to implode on itself... so they brought back Orlando Freakin' Hernandez, now 38 years old and out of baseball for a year and a half after shoulder surgery. And he pitched brilliantly for two months; unfortunately, he broke down in September, and was unavailable in the postseason.

The White Sox jumped at the chance to offer him a two-year, $8 million contract. I doubt that he has more than 15 starts left him, but we've been fooled before.

SP - Dustin Hermanson - He survived a mid-career crisis, and played a key role in the Giants' season, first as a starter and then as the team closer. He wasn't good, but was probably miscast in both roles. Hermanson can still be a solid pitcher in long or middle relief, and can make spot starts; presumably that will be his role in Chicago, though the White Sox bullpen has been an adventure the last few seasons.

SP - Neal Cotts - Cotts began the year as a potential fifth starter, but instead spent the year in the bullpen as Ozzie Guillen's #2 lefty, though he was more effective at getting out righthanders. Only 25 years old and has a promising arm, but needs better control, and a team that will show some faith in him as a starting pitcher.

RP - Damaso Marte - Entering the season, he was the obvious candidate to be the Sox' closer, but he blew up badly on Opening Day and ended the year with only six saves (and six blown saves). It was a disappointing year by his own standards, though it would be pretty good for most pitchers.

The Sox need to avoid getting too down on him, the way they did with Keith Foulke. They also need to stop thinking of him as a situational pitcher; Marte is super-nasty against left-handers, but he can get the other guys out as well.

RP - Shingo Takatsu - He is a sidewinder from Japan who took over as the Sox' closer in June and did a good job. The only things going against him are (1) he is vulnerable to left-handed hitters, and (2) the White Sox seem to change their minds about their bullpen every three weeks.

Detroit Tigers

It was inevitable that the Tigers would improve significantly in 2004; after you lose 119 games, there's only one direction to go. Still, even the most optimistic Tigers fan had to be stunned by an improvement of 29 games, an unbelievable total.

Saddled with a terrible roster and a barren farm system, GM Dave Dombrowski decided to gamble on some veteran free agents, and it worked. The also pulled off an incredibly lopsided deal when they grabbed Carlos Guillen from Seattle. The only two worthwhile prospects they had, Omar Infante and Jeremy Bonderman, both took great leaps forward, as did former prospect Brandon Inge. A lot of things went right in 2004.

However, there are some cosmic forces working against the Tigers in 2005. To improve by 29 games in one year, then hold your ground in the next, is a bit like trying to escape the gravity of the sun. I guess it can be done if you've got enough rocket fuel. Once again, Dombrowski has gambled on some veteran free agents, namely Magglio Ordoñez and Troy Percival, to try to keep the momentum going.

But several players from 2004, including Guillen, Pudge Rodriguez and Brandon Inge, will regress. If Ordoñez' knee holds together and Percival's arm doesn't fall off and Pudge's bat stays hot and the Bonderman stays healthy, then maybe they can avoid losing 95 games this year.

I think that they will avoid 100 losses, but a small letdown is in the cards. I concede that not all the indicators are bad — they actually had a very impressive Pythagorean Record, and the Central division is still what it is — but this team is not ready to take another step forward.

CA - Ivan Rodriguez - He had a wonderful, All-Star season. The Tigers got tremendous value on the first year on his contract; only three more to go.

He had a .975 OPS in the first half, but only .775 after the break. Rodriguez will be 33 years old in 2005; the Tigers would be wise to use him at DH a little more, and during the winter they acquired Vance Wilson, who is a competent backup.

1B - Carlos Pena - He had his best season, which isn't saying much, but... Pena will turn 27 this year, and his career trajectory suggests that he will hit 30 homers a year for the next four years, with lots of walks and strikeouts. After he turns 30, we'll have to re-evaluate him again.

2B - Omar Infante - Wow, that was some kind of year. Infante had a horrible, horrible, horrible 2003 season that saw him criticized for both his poor play and his attitude. Something clicked in 2004, because his performance was a quantum improvement. He showed off some impressive power, and his plate discipline, while there is room for improvement, was not bad for someone 22 years old.

There is an argument to be made that in-game strategy is the least important facet of a manager's job. If Infante's improvement is for real, then Alan Trammell has earned his pay.

3B - Brandon Inge - Inge entered the season as a lifetime .198 hitter in over 800 at bats. Having lost the regular catching job to Ivan Rodriguez, he moved to third base and exploded, batting .319. He is ticketed to be Detroit's regular third baseman in 2005.

Obviously, you have to be worried about Inge's past ineptitude; he was also 27 years old last season, a common age for fluke years. But who knows, maybe he was just playing the wrong position.

SS - Carlos Guillen - The funny thing about the Guillen trade is that it really upset Mariners fans who didn't want to lose Carlos' .270 average, his solid plate discipine and his modest power. So you know they weren't happy when he went to Detroit and turned into George Brett.

His season was ended in late September by a torn ACL, but he is expected to be ready for the start of the season. I'm guessing that his career will follow Jeff Blauser's, though with better defence; when he's healthy he'll be good, but health will be a serious issue.

LF - Rondell White - He was a nice pickup for the Tigers; he didn't cost much, he hit 19 home runs, and he took at bats away from Andres Torres and Gene Kingsale. He still has hot streaks where he hits everything on the nose, but he's also hopelessly injury-prone and falls into bad slumps. Now 33 years old, should be used carefully.

CF - Alex Sanchez - A lot of hearts were fluttering early in the season, when Sanchez was hitting .350 and beating out lots of bunt hits. He was given sole credit for reviving the lost art of bunting, and was on pace to demolish the record for bunt singles in a season before he was felled by injuries to his right thigh and hamstring.

I don't see Sanchez making it as a regular. His problems are obvious; (1) he never walks, so he needs to hit well over .300 to be effective; (2) he has no power; (3) despite his speed, he has terrible instincts on the basepaths and in the outfield; (4) he's a speedster who suffers from leg injuries.

ADDENDUM: At this writing, Sanchez has been released by the Tigers, signed with the Devil Rays, and has been suspended by MLB for steroid use. His entire spring has been unexpected... as far as Sanchez is concerned, he has a few weeks to impress the Devil Rays before Baldelli returns from injury; his suspension, valid or not, obviously damages his career to a significant extent. As for the Tigers, their best centre field option is now Craig Monroe, a player of limited skills who was arrested for shoplifting during the winter. It's a problem position for them.

RF - Magglio Ordoñez - He is a wonderful hitter, of course, and only 31 years old. But his knee is seriously bunged up. His list of most similar players through age 30 includes Larry Walker, Mike Sweeney, Fred Lynn, Dave Parker, Jason Giambi and Danny Tartabull, none known for their good health record. Ordoñez will have a modest year by his own standards - 74 RBI maybe - but has at least one more big year in his future.

OF - Bobby Higginson - Higginson was pretty crappy, again, as he has been ever since the Tigers handed him a $35 million contract extension in 2001. He has one year left before the team can move on.

DH - Dmitri Young - I was at the SkyDome on the day Young broke his leg. He was trying to avoid a tag from Orlando Hudson, then just went down like he was shot.

When you have a body like Dmitri Young's, which isn't suitable for anything except hitting, you should know your limits. He had no chance of escaping from Hudson, so why put yourself at risk? Just give up and go back to the dugout, there's always another at bat.

Young is a solid DH, a good hitter who can't run or field at all.

SP - Jeremy Bonderman He struggled badly the first half of the season, but started to put things together during the summer, and over the last six weeks of the season was one of the most dominant pitchers in the league (including a 14-strikeout effort in late August). Only 22 years old, and he looks like a stud.

SP - Nate Robertson - Robertson pitched well early in the season, but struggled in the second half and had an awful September. Overall, it was a strong step forward, and I expect him to be better. Bonderman and Robertson should give the Tigers a strong one-two punch in 2005.

SP - Jason Johnson - He was awful in April and May and brutal in August and September, but pitched brilliantly in June and July. He's up-and-down, but he's a decent pitcher; he improved his K/BB ratio, and will be about average again in 2005. If Bonderman and Robertson step up, Johnson will be a real good 3-4 starter for the Tigers.

SP - Mike Maroth - He's a heck of a better pitcher than Brian Kingman. Maroth had a real good year; he should pitch at a similar level for 1-2 more years, but he doesn't have a long term future in the starting rotation.

RP - Ugueth Urbina - He had an OK year for Detroit as a one-inning pitcher, walked more batters than he should have. Late in the season his mother was kidnapped and held for ransom, a situation that at this writing as not been resolved. I wouldn't even guess how he will be affected.

(ADDENDUM: A few hours ago, his mother was rescued. I have nothing else to add at the moment, just glad to hear that things appear to have worked out).

RP - Kyle Farnsworth - He had an interesting season. Farnsworth is a big brute of a pitcher who throws the ball as hard, or harder, than anyone in baseball. But he's maddeningly inconsistent. Last year he was up and down until a horrific August in which he posted a 19.29 ERA. The month was mercifully ended on August 27, when Farnsworth gave up six runs in an inning, then kicked the crap out of an electric fan and was DLed with a knee contusion.

When he came off the DL, he posted a string of unhittable outings in September. He then found himself in Detroit after the Cubs decided to purge their clubhouse of distracting personalities. More of the same in 2005; I think that his chances of improving are slim. The Dibble-types are usually finished by age 30, and Farnsworth is 29.

RP - Troy Percival - Percival received a two-year, $12 million contract from the Tigers. This, for a pitcher who can't throw more than 50 innings, who will be 36 years old, who has a history of injuries and who has lost his great fastball. After averaging 10.86 K/9 innings in 2002, last year Percival struck out only 5.98 batters per game.

At best, he will give the Tigers 100 good-not-great innings over two years. But it's more likely that he will never throw another pitch.

Kansas City Royals

While us Torontonians suffered through an awful season of Blue Jays baseball, we had some soulmates in Kansas City who had to endure the same with their Royals. Both teams had a surprisingly good 2003 season, and were looking to take another step forward in 2004; realistically, both teams should have been prepared for a small letdown. But not many people expected either team to crash and burn so completely.

There were warning signs. In 2003, the Royals were the only team in baseball to hit .300 with runners in scoring position; last year, the clutch hits stopped falling in. To make things worse, their best player, Carlos Beltran, was traded, while the reigning Rookie of the Year, Angel Berroa, was demoted. The pitching staff, which wasn't very good to begin with, collapsed. Manager Tony Pena, who could do no wrong in 2003, could do no right.

The Royals are still rebuilding; their 2003 performance was an anomaly which hopefully did not distract management too much from the task ahead. At the moment, Mike Sweeney is the only decent player on the roster, but with some patience that will change soon; Berroa will be a solid player, as will David DeJesus and John Buck. They have good young pitchers, who with any luck will soon develop into staff stalwarts.

For the moment, they still have to waste roster spots on the likes of Ken Harvey, Terrence Long and Eli Marrero.

CA - John Buck - Young catcher whom the Royals received in the Beltran deal. He made slow progress in the lower minors, developed some power, and was really hitting the ball at New Orleans at the time of the trade. He spent the second half of the season with the Royals, and was OK. He is big and strong and will hit home runs; it is unclear whether or not he will develop any other offensive skills. 24 years old, has a history of injuries.

DH - Ken Harvey/Calvin Pickering - Harvey had almost the same year that he had in 2003... except that he made the All-Star team. Harvey hit .397 in April and .333 in May, but was terrible the rest of the year. He can hit .300, but has little power, no plate discipline, and no defensive value. He needs to hit .330 to have even minimal value to anyone.

I'm a little hesitant to jump on the Pickering bandwagon. As you probably know, he's 28 years old, has only 230 at bats in his career, is the size of a small whale and can hit the ball a mile. Pickering tore up the Pacific Caost League early in the season, which had fans clamouring for him to get a chance in the big leagues. He got into a few games, but didn't get much of a chance to play.

Pickering has the kind of flaws that usually prevent power hitters from achieving success, including strikeouts in a third of his at bats. But when the alternative is Ken Harvey... you gotta think that there is room for Calvin to pick up at least 300 at bats.

2B - Ruben Gotay/Tony Graffanino - A kid, 22 years old, and a veteran, who will likely share time in 2005. Gotay moved up to AA Wichita in 2004, then all the way up to Kansas City and played 44 games with the Royals. And he played well, one of the brightest spots in an otherwise dismal season. He has a few growing pains left, but he appears to be a patient young hitter with line drive power.

Graffanino is a .260 hitter - I mean it, he hits .260 every year, and is a lifetime .260 hitter - and he too has some line drive power.

3B - Mark Teahen/Chris Truby - Teahen was one of the key players that Kansas City received in the Carlos Beltran deal. He's now 24 years old, and presumably will be counted on to contribute this year. He was, of course, drafted in the first round by Oakland in 2002 - now known as the "Moneyball draft". Right now, he looks like he can hit .300 in the majors, but his other offensive skills are very modest.

Before 2004, Truby signed a minor league deal with Pittsburgh, which seemed like a good idea, as the Pirates were lacking a third baseman. Truby spent the entire year in the minors, without getting a sniff with the Pirates. Strange, because he had a good year at Nashville, and the Pirates had crappy third basemen, but... it didn't work out. If he actually plays this year, he is capable of hitting 20 home runs, though he won't do much else.

SS - Angel Berroa - The 2003 Rookie of the Year. The bad news is, he was demoted in the middle of his sophomore season because of his poor play. The good news is, the Royals also demoted former ROY Carlos Beltran during his sophomore season, and he turned out OK.

Berroa played better later in the year. He will be OK; he's not going to be a star, but he will be a quality player for a few years.

LF - Eli Marrero - Marrero had the year of his life, at age 30, batting .320 with power. Can he repeat this performance? If you have any respect for John Schuerholz and the job he has done in Atlanta, then the answer is obviously "no". The Braves didn't hesitate to cut bait.

He's versatile and he's a better option than Juan Gonzalez. But Marrero won't hit enough to be a good regular.

CF - David DeJesus - After the Beltran trade, DeJesus took over centre field for the Royals and did a good job. 25 years old, had a slow start to his career because of serious elbow problems from three years ago. He is an unusual Royals prospect, because of his remarkable plate discipline; fair or not, it's just not the first thing you think of when you read the words, "Royals prospect".

He should mix some modest power with speed and a high on-base percentage. Given the lack of competition, it's not a stretch to suggest that a healthy DeJesus will be the American League's top leadoff man in 2005.

RF - Terrence Long - Is a warm body.

DH - Mike Sweeney - He had his weakest season as a regular, but still hit .287 with a .504 slugging percentage, driving in 79 runs in 106 games. He's been plagued by back troubles the past two seasons; in July-August he appeared to have his groove back, until he went on the DL in late August and never returned. He's a terrific hitter who still shows flashes of his former self.

SP - Zack Greinke - A superprospect at the beginning of the season, Greinke justified the hype after he was called up in mid-May. He pitched very well, at age 20, and more importantly stayed healthy. The Royals have babied him to this point, which is a smart thing to do, and they can probably afford to do it for another year. Greg Maddux didn't hit 200 innings until he was 22, and I wouldn't push Greinke far beyond that point until 2006.

SP - Jimmy Gobble - A young left-hander who has three good pitches, and has had good success in the minor leagues. But his transition to the majors has been a little rough so far. He's a still a good bet to be a surprise player in 2005; (1) he's only 23, so he has plenty of time to adjust to the big leagues; (2) though he has struggled, he hasn't been terrible; (3) no one takes him seriously because his name is Gobble.

SP - Brian Anderson - How he managed to pull off his 2003 season is a mystery, but anyways, that year is clearly out of context with the path his career is following. He's about done.

SP - Jose Lima - For Dodgers fans, Lima's comeback was one of the keys to a magical season. But for the Royals, believing in Lima Time is a bit like believing in Santa Claus; there really isn't any reason to believe that he will continue to pitch well in 2005.

RP - Mike MacDougal - MacDougal saved 27 games in 2003, most of them during a pair of hot stretches early in the season, but really struggled during the summer. Last year, he still had the closer's job, but began the year on the DL with a stomach virus, lost some weight, lost some velocity, couldn't throw strikes, was demoted to AAA Omaha, had elbow problems, was demoted to AA Wichita, couldn't throw strikes there either...

Anyways, it was a rough year. When healthy, MacDougal has a fastball that clocks 100mph and a wicked slider. Last year he was "only" throwing 95mph but who cares. If he can stay healthy, his control will improve and he will be a solid setup man... assuming that the Royals can resist the temptation to make him the closer after he puts 4-5 good outings together.

RP - Jeremy Affeldt - Affeldt is a lefty with terrific stuff who has been slowed by injuries. Before the season started he parted ways with a fingernail that was giving him blister problems, but struggled during the season with torn muscles in his rib cage.

As long as his arm is healthy, a breakout season is a real possibility. The Royals have used him as both a starter and reliever, but now appear to have settled on him as a setup man or closer. A wise decision.

WEST

Los Angeles Angels of Akademgorodok

Curiously, the Angels have become one of the most interesting and dynamic franchises in baseball — after they won a World Series. Their championship run of 2002 piqued the interest of a vibrant businessman, Arte Moreno, who rescued the team from the Eisner Slumber.

Now, combine the core from the 2002 championship with some bold new player additions, an aggressive marketing strategy, competent management and a pretty good farm system, and the Angels future for the next few seasons looks good.

In case you didn't notice, the Angels in 2004 had an all right-handed bullpen; Dusty Bergman was the only lefty, and he threw only two innings. And it was brilliant, probably the best in the league (Percival/Rodriguez weren't as good as Rivera/Gordon, but the Angels had far more depth than then Yankees). If the Angels can have a great bullpen with seven right-handers, then why do other managers still insist on carrying two or three crappy southpaws in their pen?

And more to the point, why the hell after 165 games did Mike Scioscia suddenly think that he needed a left-hander to face David Ortiz?!?

CA - Ben Molina - He was plagued all year by hamstring and calf problems, and only played in 97 games. As usual, he had a decent average and drove in some runs when he played. But Molina is impossibly slow and is getting slower; he hardly ever scores any runs and he hits into a huge number of double plays. His defensive skills, once among the best in the league, have been eroded by his lack of mobility. Only 30 years old, but it's hard to see how he can remain a regular for much longer.

1B - Darin Erstad - He hit a little better, but still not enough for a regular first baseman. And it's doubtful that his defence and baserunning are enough to compensate for his weak bat. If he were still a great defensive outfielder, as he was two years ago, then he would be a quality player... but the Angels signed Steve Finley to play centre field, so Erstad isn't moving anywhere.

2B - Adam Kennedy/Chone Figgins - A real good player, Kennedy hits for a decent average, has a bit of power, a bit of speed, and posted the best on-base percentage of his career. And he's a Gold Glove-calibre second baseman. A knee injury ended his season in late September; the Angels weren't going to beat the Red Sox, but he was missed.

Figgins is fast and exciting and had a super year as a utility player. He never had a regular position, but batted 600 times playing all over the place. He may start at second if Kennedy isn't healthy, will also play third if McPherson struggles or anywhere else he is needed.

3B - Dallas McPherson - He hit 43 home runs last season, 20 with Arkansas, 20 with Salt Lake City, and three with Anaheim. McPherson is huge and very powerful and strikes out a lot; these are the same qualities of Eric Munson and Adam Dunn, and it's hard to say who McPherson more closely resembles. He is facing big expectations entering this season, but don't expect a smooth transition into the big leagues; big guys with big swings get messed up pretty easily.

SS - Orlando Cabrera - What a remarkable nine-month odyssey. Cabrera played about as bad as he can possibly play the first half of the season with