2005 Season Preview (National League)

I've been online for almost five years now, and each year I've done a preseason preview to help keep things current. I wasn't planning on doing it this year, because it's a lot of work and last year was a struggle to get finished. But I gave it a shot, and actually enjoyed it quite a bit - I've even finished a month earlier than usual. It was just one of those years when it was fun to write about baseball; may there be more like them. Here's the National League; thanks for visiting!

I'm also making my preseason award predictions, and rankings for each position. Thanks!

Predictions:
National League Preview:
American League Preview:
2005 Player Rankings:
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2005 Predictions:

American League MVP: Manny Ramirez
American League Cy Young: Rich Harden
AL Playoffs: Red Sox, Twins, Angels, Athletics (WC)
American League Pennant: Minnesota Twins

National League MVP: Marcus Giles
National League Cy Young: Mark Prior
NL Playoffs: Braves, Cubs, Padres, Cardinals (WC)
National League Pennant: Chicago Cubs

NATIONAL LEAGUE PREVIEW

EAST

Atlanta Braves

      The Braves have, I believe, rendered impotent every "analyst" of every stripe. I don't like to think that I have a big ego or anything, but I'm tired of being wrong. From now on, I'm picking Atlanta to win their division until someone beats them.

CA - Johnny Estrada - Since joining the Braves he has done nothing but hit, first with Richmond in 2003 and then last year with Atlanta. He has turned the Millwood deal into a grand coup for John Schuerholz; there doesn't seem to be any reason why he won't continue to hit .300.

1B - Julio Franco/Adam Laroche - As he gets older, Franco's batting average keeps going up; after last year's performance, at age 45, he is once again a career .300 hitter. He now has 2457 career hits, even though his career is missing four full seasons, and parts of several others.

LaRoche is a young left-hander with an uppercut swing who wasn't much of a power prospect entering the season... but he hit 13 homers in a part-time role, then smashed a bomb in the postseason. I admit that I am intrigued.

2B - Marcus Giles - A season of ups and downs. Giles began the season on fire, batting .393 in April; in May he broke his collarbone in a collision with Andruw Jones, and missed two months. He slumped when he came back, caught fire again in September, then disappeared in the postseason.

Anyways, Giles is a brilliant player, 27 years old, capable of having an MVP season. His ability to avoid serious injuries is his only serious question mark.

3B - Chipper Jones - He had a disappointing season, saved only by a monster August in which he hit .337 with 11 home runs, but also marred by a useless postseason. His year broke a string of six straight seasons with a .300 batting average, and eight straight years with 100 RBI. His main problem was his poor performance against right-handed pitching... given that historically he has been a devastating hitter from the left side, I gotta think that it was a one-year blip.

Now 33 years old, is returning to third base, where apparently he is much happier. Will likely follow Rafael Palmeiro's career path, will keep hitting home runs while his batting averages gradually decline.

SS - Rafael Furcal - The most amusing subplot of the postseason was the "Furcal watch"; as we were reminded every day, Furcal had to serve a short jail sentence after the season ended, so he was extra motivated to keep the Braves alive. Of course, this was real life, not a W.P. Kinsella novel; the season had to end at some point, and thus Furcal's sentence was inevitable.

He reached double digits in home runs for the second straight year; his average was down but his walks were up, and he had a good year as a base stealer. He's a good player who does a little bit of everything, could still surprise us by rapidly developing one area of his game, i.e. stealing 60 bases, hitting 30 homers, drawing 100 walks, or something.

LF - Brian Jordan? - I don't imagine that Jordan will get many at bats this season, but I dunno, the Braves outfield is a real mystery right now.

CF - Andruw Jones - A can't think of a single player in baseball history who resembles Jones. Similarity Scores don't help; his list of comps aren't really comparable at all. Guys who hit .260 with 35 home runs every year just don't play centre field. He is also pretty much the same hitter that he was when he was 21 years old; his lack of growth has been disappointing but his consistency is remarkable.

At age 28, he's already lost a lot of speed. His instincts in the outfield are still amazing but he doesn't reach the huge amount of fly balls that he used to. Will have at least one season in which he busts loose and hits 45 home runs; I'm betting this year, if only because the Braves usually get unexpected contributions that they really need.

RF - Raul Mondesi - He began the year with the Pirates and had a decent start to the season, but quit on the team in mid-May. He then signed with Anaheim, tore a quad muscle, and was released after he failed to report to rehab.

Mondesi is now 34 and has been given a chance by the Braves. He appears to still have enough ability to be like Reggie Sanders, bat around .260 with 20 homers and a few stolen bases every year. But while Reggie is making an effort to keep his career going, Raul is not. I think that Mondesi is more trouble than he is worth, but John Schuerholz has a habit of making more good decisions than bad ones.

SP - Tim Hudson - After increasing his workload in every season of his career, Hudson was set back in 2004 by a strained oblique muscle that forced him to miss all of July. When healthy he was still among the better pitchers in the league, but like Mark Mulder he had a brutal September that cost the Athletics a playoff spot.

His strikeouts keep going down while he gets more ground balls behind him. Apparently, this was a deliberate change in strategy, to get hitters to put more balls in play. Whether or not it is a good idea has been debated quite a bit among fans; I guess we will let Masters Cox and Mazzone have the final word. My guess is, they encourage him to try and miss a few more bats.

SP - John Smoltz - He had another excellent season as the Braves' closer, but must have felt pretty useless in the playoffs while the Braves' starters were getting pounded. So, he's going back into the starting rotation. 38 years old, but if he's healthy, he's Curt Schilling.

SP - Mike Hampton - He survived the season, barely. At age 32, Hampton doesn't appear to have much going for him, except that he's pitching in Atlanta.

SP - John Thomson - He surprised nobody by having his best season with Atlanta. Thomson throws strikes, gives up a few too many home runs but will be OK for another couple of seasons.

SP - Horacio Ramirez - Ramirez had a decent start to the season, then went on the DL in June with "shoulder tendinitis"; no one really figured out the problem, and arthroscopic surgery in October didn't reveal anything, so I guess he's good to go. 25 years old, no real potential unless Mazzone teaches him to throw strikes.

RP - Danny Kolb - He changed his approach, with dramatic results. Kolb is an extreme groundball pitcher who decided to throw the ball over the plate and let people hit it. His control improved, while his strikeout rate fell from 8.49 K/9 to 3.30. And he was one of the best closers in baseball, saving 39 games for the Brewers.

The bad news is that almost no one can survive without striking out more batters. No matter how many pitchers try to prove otherwise, it almost never works out. The good news is, he's joined the Braves, so I'm sure that he will get sound guidance from Cox and Mazzone if he has any struggles.

Florida Marlins

They had a solid followup year to their championship season. Last spring, I predicted that the Marlins would be also-rans in 2004 but a serious contender in 2005; I felt that it would take a year for them to retool, and for some of their younger players to mature. They had a chance to repeat; they had a good start, struggled during the summer but were on a roll in August when the hurricane season struck and postponed a bunch of home games. They never recovered their momentum.

I'm still optimistic about the Marlins' chances in 2005; they've still got the core of veterans that won the championship two years ago, including Lowell, Castillo and Pierre. LoDuca and Mota should be solid contributors this season; Cabrera is quickly developing into an awesome player, while A.J. Burnett quickly regained his strength. And, oh yeah, they signed Carlos Delgado. Now the question is whether Josh Beckett can stay healthy.

On paper, I think they're the best team in the division, but I'm having a "show me" kind of day. They're in against some tough competition, and the bullpen is, admittedly, a real mess.

CA - Paul Lo Duca - Obviously, I need to read more L.A. papers. I was caught totally off guard by the reaction to the LoDuca deal; I had NO IDEA that he was so highly regarded by the local fans and media. I thought he was just, you know, a guy.

Anyways, the deal turned out to be, in the short term, a bust for both teams. Brad Penny made only two starts for the Dodgers, while LoDuca couldn't help the Marlins get into the playoffs. Infamous for swooning in the second half, LoDuca hit .337 in August while Florida made its run, but then had a disastrous September in which he hit only .189.

LoDuca's offensive skills are limited; he's slow, hits into a lot of double plays, doesn't walk much, has limited power and usually hits 50 points higher in the first half of the season than in the second. But he does have his hot streaks; entering 2005, the Marlins are still in good shape to win their division, and are hoping that their 33-year-old catcher can provide at least one more decent year.

1B - Carlos Delgado - He struggled in April and May, missed all of June with an injury, struggled in July, and then beat the crap out of opposing pitchers over the final two months of the season. Delgado's strong finish waylaid fears that his bat is slowing down. His new park will swallow up some of his power, but he's still an awesome hitter.

2B - Luis Castillo - He had another good year, putting aside fears about his bad hip. Castillo did everything he is supposed to, hitting .290 and drawing walks and improving his base stealing, while also sticking in the lineup for 150 games and playing good defence.

3B - Mike Lowell - He was tremendous the first two months of the season; the rest of the year was up-and-down, but overall it was his best season. He was overshadowed by the Rolen/Beltre show, but like Castillo, Lowell's a rock in the Marlins infield as they prepare to make another run in 2005.

SS - Alex Gonzalez - He doesn't make contact very often, though when he does, the ball tends to travel far (56 extra-base hits). Over the past five seasons, he's had one six-week span in which he was a good player; otherwise, he's ranged from mediocre to pitiful.

LF - Jeff Conine/Juan Encarnacion - Conine's career refuses to die. He was 38 last season, and had a decent year with that bat while playing on a regular basis. Over the past six years, his slugging percentages have ranged between .432 and .459, which is pretty freakishly consistent.

Encarnacion is a player for teams with low expectations. I mean, if you really must have that .260 batting average and 18 home runs, then go ahead and take him. Just remember that he swings at everything, strikes out a lot and hits into double plays.

CF - Juan Pierre - He had his best season with the bat, but had a terrible year stealing bases. Pierre has pushed up his on-base percentage three straight years, which is good, especially given that he's setting the table for Delgado. Of course, his caught stealings have also gone up three straight years; if he keeps getting thrown out, perhaps someone should advise him that Carlos can drive him in from first base just fine.

RF - Miguel Cabrera - He swooned in September, but otherwise had a very impressive sophomore season. Cabrera appears to be a .300 hitter with unlimited power potential. He hit 19 home runs on the road; like most Marlins, Joe Player Stadium swallows up his power.

SP - Josh Beckett - He entered the season with high expectations, following his brilliant performance at the end of the 2003 season. But he was limited to 26 starts; he made two trips to the DL with blister problems, and another with a back strain. When he was healthy he was inconsistent.

Beckett is only 25, and his peripherals are still outstanding. Blisters are frustrating, but as long as no one has sliced his arm open then you have to be optimistic about his future. He is obviously still a frontrunner to win the Cy Young Award.

SP - Dontrelle Willis - His sophomore season had its ups-and-downs, but he stayed healthy and pitched pretty decent overall. What was true of Willis last year is still true: if you didn't know that he was a goofy left-hander, you would probably like him a lot.

SP - A.J. Burnett - Oh yeah; that was some good stuff we saw from Burnett in 2004. Returning from Tommy John surgery on his elbow, A.J. started slowly, but became more and more dominating as the season wore on. Everything about him except his injury history is fantastic.

SP - Al Leiter He got good results for most of the year, though he seemed to be using smoke and mirrors. The wheels fell off of Leiter's season in August and September, plus he will be 39 years old this year. The Marlins will pay him $8 million this season, but I doubt that he will be in the rotation in September.

RP - Guillermo Mota - He was again pitching brilliantly for the Dodgers as their setup man, until a controversial deadline deal sent him to the Marlins. With Florida, he struggled badly, but now inherits the closer's job. He's a good pitcher and will be OK, but has neither the power nor the control to be one of the best.

New York Mets

The Mets in 2004 could have been a Shakespearean comedy, if only the author had been able to work a little sex into the storyline (though the acquisition of Anna Benson and her husband bodes well for the future).

ACT I began with the arrival of the star from Japan, whose contract stipulated that he must play shortstop. Jose Reyes began the year on the DL. The Mets were 9-14 in April. Jason Phillips hit .162 with zero homers in the first month. Matsui did not impress anybody with his bat or glove.

ACT II featured a better May. Tom Glavine was pitching great. Mike Piazza had his best month, as did Phillips. Reyes came back in June. David Wright, the team's best prospect, was promoted to Norfolk, and finally in July arrived in New York.

But Phillips hit under .200 for the rest of the summer; Piazza's defence at first base was awful, and he was moved back behind the plate. Matsui continue to disappoint. Mike Stanton began the year with five losses and five blown saves, before he finally picked up a win in August.

The team went over .500 on May 25, fell back, then again went over .500 on June 22. They had a winning record as late as July 18.

ACT III after their decent run during the summer, the Mets fancied themselves as contenders. At the trading deadline, they dealt superprospect Scott Kazmir to the Devil Rays for Victor Zambrano and also picked up Kris Benson. Said pitching coach Rick Peterson: "I feel very confident. I don't think this should embarrass me, or the organization, by any means."

After joining the Mets, Zambrano went on the DL with an elbow injury. Peterson: "Unfortunately, there were some things we didn't know at the time we made the trade."

ACT IV was an embarrassing finish to the season, a 21-35 record in August and September that ended with Art Howe's dismissal as manager. He was fired in mid-September, but continued on for the final two weeks. "The fact is, I'm not fired now. I'm leaving after the season."

The fallout from the Kazmir deal brought more intense criticism from fans. Tom Glavine lost some teeth after the taxi he was riding in had a minor accident.

ACT V featured the arrival of Omar Minaya, the hiring of Willie Randolph and Pedro Martinez' request to sign a multi-million dollar contract without having an MRI on his shoulder. The End.

The audience offered a few catcalls, but they're hooked and will come back for more. This year's show features the addition of Carlos Beltran, the marquee free agent of the winter. There will be no comedy this year; this is a team that is expected to win. And they might, but they're in tough. The Braves haven't finished lower than first in a long time, while the Marlins added A Carlos Of Their Own to their cast of former champions.

CA - Mike Piazza/Jason Phillips - At age 35, Piazza had his worst season with the bat, and was so bad defensively at first base that the Mets had to move him back behind the plate. He should be a DH, except that no one wants a 36-year-old DH making $15 million. The Mets will have to struggle on, and hope that his bat has some life left in it.

Phillips had a horrible, horrible, horrible season, including four months with a batting average under .200. He has been demoted from starting first baseman to backup catcher, and may not make the team at all. The good news is, he's capable of doing much better; Piazza has injuries and Mientkiewicz kinda sucks, so there's a chance for Phillips to contribute.

1B - Doug Mientkiewicz - He is a fine defensive first baseman who has had two good years with the bat and three stinkers. Last year stunk. Now 31 years old, he gets a chance to reclaim a regular job; the Mets will discover in mid-May that a World Series ring does not imbue mediocre players with magical powers of winning.

2B - Kazuo Matsui - His season was a disappointment, both at bat and in the field. It was also shortened by a series of injuries, including a lacerated finger, a strained wrist and a lower back strain.

He will begin the year at second base, and there is reason for optimism. The other Matsui, Hideki, had a tremendous sophomore season following a disappointing rookie year with the Yankees. Given a year of adjustment and better health, Kaz should be an improved player.

3B - David Wright - He spent two months beating the crap out of Eastern League pitching before the Mets promoted him to... the International League, where he continued to hit home runs. Finally, the Mets called him up in late July. 22 years old, hits for average and power, was perfect as a base stealer. Has plenty of time to improve everything else.

SS - Jose Reyes - He had a crappy season, but what the hell, he was only 21 years old, and his team is run by a bunch of boobs. Reyes is a great young player, and if the Mets can just put him at shortstop and leave alone then he will be OK.

LF - Cliff Floyd - His season was utterly predictable; a sore Achilles' tendon and a strained quad limited Floyd to only 113 games, while his batting average dropped 30 points. Now 32 years old; his batting performance has nosedived the past two seasons while he continues to struggle with injuries. Unless he becomes a DH, the trend isn't going to be reversed.

CF - Carlos Beltran - His season was quite an odyssey. Beltran's average dropped 40 points, but he set career highs in home runs, runs scored, walks and stolen bases, and overall it may have been his best season. He was also traded in midseason and sparked a dramatic second-half run by the Astros; in the playoffs, he was a monster, batting .435 with eight home runs over two series.

So, at age 28, he was the free agent who was highest in demand. and signed for $119 million with the Mets. He's way good, but he's also a tad overrated; he's not any better than, say, Bobby Abreu, who makes significantly less and doesn't generate the same kind of hype. He has only twice hit .300 in a season and only once hit 30 home runs.

RF - Mike Cameron - His season was as predictable as they come; he set a career high with 30 homers but hit only .231 after moving to the league's resident low-average, homer-friendly ballpark. His offence is going to continue to decline, at a steep rate; now that he is moving out of centre field, it will be hard to justify playing him on a regular basis.

IF - Miguel Cairo - Apparently, the Yankees' collapse against Boston was all Miguel Cairo's fault. Cairo had a real good year for the Yankees at second base, both with the bat and the glove; New York replaced him after the season with Tony Womack, and he ended up signing with the other New York team for less than a million to be their utility infielder.

Granted, he's 31, and last season was a career year. But in a winter in which Cristian Guzman was paid $16 million to do his thing, I thought that Cairo's market value would be at least a little higher.

SP - Pedro Martinez - He still ranks among the best pitchers in the game. Pedro threw over 200 innings for the first time in four years, and averaged more than a strikeout per inning. He had stretches during the season when he struggled, and others when he was untouchable; he also suffered in the first half, like his rotation mates, from Boston's crappy defence.

SP - Tom Glavine - He entered the All-Star break with a 2.66 ERA, and once again appeared to have cheated Father Time. He had a 2.92 ERA on August 6, before an accident in a taxi knocked out some teeth; his ERA was 5.71 after the accident. He can still help for at least one more season, but he will lean on his defenders for support. The Mets... may or may not be able to help.

SP - Kris Benson - After two years of uninspired pitching, Benson was pretty decent in 2004. For the Mets, "pretty decent" was enough for them to give him $22.5 million. He also pitched brilliantly for the Mets in September, which was probably worth an extra $5 million.

Well, it's their money, they can do what they want. But I'm not convinced that Benson will ever get better than what he is now. For the moment, he's pretty much Steve Trachsel, except that he's three years younger, has a history of reconstructive surgery, and has a famous wife.

SP - Victor Zambrano - Was traded in midseason to the Mets in the most controversial deal of the year. The Mets traded Scott Kazmir, arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball, for Zambrano, a 29-year-old pitcher who has (1) never won more than 12 games in a season; (2) never thrown 200 innings in a season; and (3) never started 30 games in a season. He also has the worst control in baseball, walking 102 batters last year while hitting 16 more.

It could turn out to be much ado about nothing, if Kazmir develops arm troubles. But after Zambrano joined the Mets, he was felled by elbow tendinitis. He has good stuff, and could give them 15 wins if everything broke right... but right now, Kazmir is a better pitcher, is healthier, and is eight years younger. It was a high-risk, meagre reward deal for the Mets.

SP - Steve Trachsel - I'm not exactly sure why the Steve Trachsel of the past three years has performed better than the Steve Trachsel of 1999 and 2000, but he's a survivor. The 83 walks, though, is a concern; the last time he started walking that many batters his career went into a three-year freefall, and now he's 34 years old. If I'm a Mets fan, his list of most similar pitchers (Dick Ruthven, Kevin Gross, Jaime Navarro, Jim Clancy, Mark Gubicza, Todd Stottlemyre, etc.) is bloody frightening.

RP - Braden Looper - He had a solid season for the Mets, throwing 83 quality innings while saving 29 games. He gives up more than a hit per inning, and isn't an elite closer, but the Mets have bigger worries.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies in 2004 could have been a Shakespearean tragedy if the author's poetry hadn't been so dull. On paper, they appeared to have the most talent in the division... but they started the year with a manager whom everyone expected to be fired before the end of the season - and was, in fact, fired before the end of the season. They acquired two proven closers, only to have both of them fail (while Jose Mesa, who cost them a playoff spot in 2003, had a great year with the Pirates.

A good tragedy should have a comic character to break the tension - jester, porter - and such was Larry Bowa's role with the Phillies. At any point during the season, you could have expected him to leap off the bench and cry "Knock, knock, knock! Who's there, in the name of Beezlebub?"

It was a disappointing opening performance at the new theatrical venue in Philadelphia. This year they have a few new performers and a new director. They are a talented, competitive club playing in a division with three other talented, competitive clubs - but while the Mets, Marlins and Braves all made bold moves over the winter, the Phillies seem to be stuck in neutral.

CA - Mike Lieberthal - He had a bit of an off-year, at age 32, though if you take out a wretched April (.174 average) he was still pretty good. Since his knee injury in 2001, Lieberthal has had three straight years with 130 games played. I think that he has another good year left.

1B - Jim Thome - He had 28 home runs at the All-Star break, but struggled in the second half. His two years in Philadelphia have been good, not great, which you would expect from a player who is turning 34 this year.

I think of Thome as a left-handed Harmon Killebrew - who had his last big year at age 34. The Phillies will be lucky if Thome remains productive for the remainder of his contract (Mark McGwire, who was also similar, peaked at age 34... but when Mark started to go, he went fast).

2B - Chase Utley/Placido Polanco - As Polanco goes, so do the Phillies. That sounds ridiculous, but the infield situation is a real litmus test for the new Phillies' management, to prove that they actually know what they are doing. Polanco is an everyday player, an above-average hitter and a brilliant defensive player at both second and third.

Pencilling him in the lineup should be a no-brainer, but the Phillies also want to give at bats to Utley, and they still have David Bell at third base. Polanco was a free agent during the winter, and it looked as if the situation would sort itself out... but he resigned with the Phillies.

There is nothing wrong, of course, with having lots of depth. Most teams would love to have a young second baseman with power like Utley, and two good veterans. But if they're all healthy, the Phillies have to figure out a way to make it work.

3B - David Bell - He followed the worst season of his career with his best. His raw numbers (.291 average, 18 homers, 33 doubles, 77 RBI, etc.) look like something that Buddy used to do every year. Bell committed 24 errors, which was surprising, but otherwise he appears to still be a good defensive third baseman. He enters 2005 with a regular job, but he's 32 years old, and the Phillies have an excess of infielders.

SS - Jimmy Rollins - After two years of drifting, Rollins had, at age 25, a season that demands respect. He hit .183 in April, which wrecked his first-half numbers and gave the impression that he wasn't making improvements. But he hit .320 with 11 home runs in the second half. A switch-hitter, he hit for both average and power from both sides of the plate. He had his best year as a base stealer since he was a rookie.

Rollins was one of the few bright spots in the Phillies' season. Obviously, if this is a real improvement (and I can't think of reason why not), he will be one of the best shortstops in the National League.

LF - Pat Burrell - Burrell had a tremendous May, but then fell into a funk during the summer; from June onwards, he struggled as badly as he did during his disastrous 2003 season (granted that he missed a month with a wrist injury). He's only 28, but after only one good month in the past two years, he's officially a reclamation project.

CF - Kenny Lofton/Jason Michaels - Lofton wasn't happy in 2004 about being a part-time player with the Yankees... but you know, that's what happens when you sign with a team that already has three outfielders. He was hampered during the season by quad and hamstring injuries, and stole only seven bases. Now 38 years old, is still a pesky hitter but not much else.

In four years, Michaels now has 519 at bats, and has done well, batting .293 with some walks and power. He is an ideal fourth outfielder; he was playing well enough at the end of last season that the Phillies should have given him the starting job, but he shouldn't worry too much about competing for playing time with Old Man Lofton or Burrell the Terrible.

RF - Bobby Abreu - A brilliant, underrated player who hits .300, is an extra-base hit machine, and who set career highs for walks (127) and stolen bases (40). So, of course, it's his fault that the Phillies don't win because (insert reason here).

SP - Jon Lieber - He missed a season after having Tommy John surgery, but came back and gave the Yankees everything they needed; he took his regular turn in the rotation, and threw nothing but strikes. Will be 35 years old, but if healthy will survive a few more years. The Phillies gave him $21 million, so obviously they are expecting him to do more than just "survive".

SP - Cory Lidle - After peaking at age 30, Lidle had his second straight disappointing season. He's not terrible, but he's no more than a decent 3-4 starter.

SP - Randy Wolf - A talented left-hander who just can't catch a break. Wolf began the year pitching very well, but went on the DL in June with tendinitis in his elbow. He came back, pitched poorly for two months, then was shut down in September. After the season, he had an inflamed nerve removed from his left foot.

It doesn't sound good, but any time a pitcher can make it through the winter without having his arm cut open, that's not bad. I have no idea what the implications are of having a nerve removed from your foot, but it might work out; he'll be brought along slowly, which might help the elbow.

SP - Vicente Padilla - Like Randy Wolf, he was disabled early in the summer by tendinitis. He did not have surgery, and is expected to be ready to start the year. A solid pitcher if healthy.

SP - Brett Myers - Early in the season, Larry Bowa expressed concern about his mechanics, though as it turned out Myers was one of the few Phillies hurlers who didn't suffer from tendinitis during the season. His season was no better, no worse than the year before. Myers is now 24 years old, and still has great stuff; he just needed an extra year to take the next step forward. Hopefully, Bowa is wrong about those mechanics.

RP - Tim Worrell - After saving 38 games for the Giants in 2003, Worrell signed with the Phillies to back up Billy Wagner. He ended up saving 19 games while Wagner was hurt, but he also blew eight saves. In many ways, he pitched better than he did in 2003, except that he developed a habit of giving up home runs at the bad time.

He's 36 years old, but still looks good for another season. Assuming that Wagner is healthier and his luck is a little better, then Worrell will have a better time of it in 2005.

RP - Billy Wagner - He was limited to only 45 games by a stroined groin, and then later tendinitis in his left shoulder. When he was available to pitch, the numbers were still pretty gaudy, including 59 strikeouts (and only six walks) in 48 innings. But he also blew four of 25 save opportunities, in what was basically a tough year. He's the hardest throwing pitcher in baseball when healthy, and a great closer.

Washington Meatheads

They had the worst offseason by any team in a long time, probably since the Seattle Pilots in 1969. G.M. Jim Bowden helped spark last year's spending spree by signing Cristian F. Guzman to a $16 million contract; a couple of weeks later, the team promptly shut down operations. Gee, thanks for nothing.

CA - Brian Schneider - He made some tangible improvements with the bat, and asserted himself as a premier defensive catcher. The power that he showed earlier in his career has gone strangely missing, but I'm optimisic; a lot of catchers seem to discover (or rediscover) their home run swing in their late 20's. He's similar to another Expos catcher, Darrin Fletcher, not as good a hitter but a better defensive player.

1B - Nick Johnson - He had another season ruined by injuries, this time a strained back and a ground ball that smashed his face and broke his cheekbone. Once an enormously talented young hitter, and still only 26 years old, but it doesn't appear that his body will ever let him reach his potential. His best bet is to become the new Earl Torgeson.

2B - Jose Vidro - Remarkably enough, he is still property of the Washingtons; early in the season, Vidro signed a four-year, $30 million contract extension, which seemed to indicate that he would be traded to a team looking to shore up their infield for the next few years. He an off-year by his own standards (though pretty good for most others) and had his season ended in August by knee surgery.

Now is a good time to trade him; he will turn 30, and his ability to play second base is in question after the surgery. The Yankees will probably come calling in midseason when they realize that Tony Womack can't play. But the Natalies will probably be reluctant to deal their best player in their first year.

3B - Vinny Castilla - He returned to Colorado, and led the league in RBI. As usual, he had a big home/road split, batting .321 with 14 homers, 80 RBI at Coors, .218 (but with 21 home runs) on the road.

He is returning to sea level in 2005 after signing a $6.2 million deal for two years with Washington. He remains what he is, a guy who can hit .240 with some power and good defence; he should be an upgrade over Tony Batista and won't cost too much.

But he will also be 37 years old. The second year of his contract will be a waste of cash.

SS - Cristian Guzman - His key assets are his ability to stay in the lineup, hit over .260, not make a lot of errors and pull off some baserunning stunts.

His negatives are his lack of power, his awful plate discipline, his lack of range and his declining speed (last year his triples (4) and stolen bases (10) were his lowest totals since his rookie year, while his GIDPs (15) were a career high). At age 27, Guzman is of limited value right now, and unless he rediscovers his legs will be useless when he's 28.

Nevertheless, he cashed in over the winter, signing for $16.8 million over four years with Washington.

LF - Terrmel Sledge - It took Sledge a long time to reach the majors, but after a big year at Edmonton in 2003, he Expos gave him his first shot at the majors, at age 27.

He hit .122 in April and .186 in July, but in the other four months wielded a pretty decent bat. Most teams would probaly shuffle Sledge into a platoon, which he would be good at; for lack of better options, the Nationals may give him another chance to be a regular. Capable of hitting 30 homers in a season.

CF - Endy Chavez - Another player who could be useful off the bench, but who is playing every day out of necessity. Chavez can hit .280, plus he has the speed to steal some bases and run down almost anything in the outfield. He doesn't get on base or hit for power, and is really stretched to bat 500 times in a season.

RF - Jose Guillen - He played better than I thought he would, and for five months was a good investment for the Angels. The good news is that he is a .300 hitter with decent power; the bad news is that he has poor plate discipline, and he is nuts.

OF - Brad Wilkerson - Batted leadoff for much of the year. As a result, Wilkerson belted 73 extra-base hits, including 32 home runs, but drove in only 67 runs. But with his walks he was able to score 112 runs.

He split the year between first base and the outfield; first is probably his best defensive position. And he also had his best year with the bat. Not a star, but every team needs a player like him.

SP - Livan Hernandez - A workhorse who again pitched very well for the Expos, despite the losing record. He has thrown a lot of pitches the past two seasons, and lost the strike zone a bit over the past two months; but no matter how hard he has been worked in the past, Hernandez has always bounced back.

SP - Tony Armas Jr. - An outstanding young pitcher who lost most of 2003 to shoulder surgery, and spent last season trying to come back. Only 26 years old, and still has a future, but not right now; he's always had control problems, and they will be another obstacle in his road back.

SP - Toma Ohka - He had a tough year. Ohka pitched well in the first half, but was stuck with a 3-7 record. His pitching arm was then broken by a line drive in June; he came back in September and struggled in three starts. He's a good pitcher, 29 years old, has gotten as good as he's going to get; the next couple of years will be tough for him to hang on to what he's got.

SP - Esteban Loaiza - He came back to Earth quite a bit, but Loaiza wasn't too bad. He had a league-average ERA with the White Sox, and was even selected to the All-Star team, thanks to a 9-5 record. Then he was traded to New York, and I would just ignore everything that happened after that. He will give the Nationals some quality innings in 2005.

SP - Zach Day/Jon Rauch - Day has tantalizing potential, a hard sinking fastball that could make him a Kevin Brown-type pitcher. But he's had injury problems; last year it was shoulder tendinitis and a broken finger. Also, his strikeout rate is dangerously low, while he has been getting fewer ground balls - two trends that quickly need to be reversed.

A former superprospect with the White Sox, Rauch was dealt to Montreal for Carl Everett; with the Expos, he pitched as well as you can possibly pitch for 23 innings. It's not much, but it's a start. Rauch is huge, and is only 26, but has had a long history of injuries. The worst was a torn labrum in 2001, except that no one seems to agree whether or not it was the labrum that was actually torn. Anyways, he should be the swingman in 2005, is a long shot to stay healthy for a full year.

RP - Luis Ayala - He had his second straight outstanding year in middle relief. His record fell from 10-3 as a rookie to 6-12 last year... must avert eyes... do not pay attention to misleading won-loss record... Ayala is an exceptional setup man; that he didn't become the closer last year is a little quirky, but he can move into that role if Cordero falters.

RP - Chad Cordero - He grabbed the closer's job at age 22, taking advantage of Biddle's meltdown and Ayala's poor April. Though the Nationals are clearly the weaklings of their division, you definitely don't want to be trailing them after seven innings.

CENTRAL

Chicago Cubs

Though their fans were disappointed in the end, it's hard to say anything bad about the Cubs' season. Their two aces, Wood and Prior, combined to win only 14 games, due to injuries beyond anyone's control. And yet the team won 89 games, one more than in the previous season. Remarkably, they didn't have a single weak spot in the lineup; only the shortstops were a serious problem, solved by the acquisitions of Nomar and The Man Who Would Be Neifi Perez.

The Borowski meltdown hurt, as did Sammy's decline and a few other problems here and there. But if either Prior or Wood stays healthy, this team makes the playoffs pretty easily.

The negatives entering this season include the loss of over 70 homers from Alou and Sosa; also, the bullpen is just the same guys they had last year, minus Kyle Farnsworth. You also have to worry of Mad Dog's age, Barrett's past inconsistency and Glendon Rusch's past awfulness. The defence doesn't look too hot, with an infield of Garciaparra, Ramirez, Walker.... the Cubs staff will need to get some strikeouts.

On the other, you've got potential full years from Nomar, Wood... Prior. A healthy Prior pretty much makes up for any negatives, and makes this team the favourite to win the division in 2005.

CA - Michael Barrett - Was the Cubs' starting catcher, and damned if he didn't do the job. By far the best season of his career, which to this point has been totally unpredictable and mostly disappointing. I've always rooted for him, but I doubt that he will ever put two good seasons together back-to-back.

1B - Derrek Lee - He started cold and finished cold but was super-hot during the summer. Lee didn't play as well as he had in Florida, but it was still a solid season. A durable, consistent player, a good hitter and a remarkable defensive player; Lee is only 30, and has better seasons ahead.

2B - Todd Walker - What a strange season. He was supposed to platoon at second base with Mark Grudzielanek, but played regularly while the latter was on the DL. Walker had 11 homers at the All-Star break, and had his best month in June, then was shuffled into a platoon in the second half when Grudzielanek was healthy.

Apparently, the Cubs don't care much for his defence. But Grudzielanek is gone and Walker is back, so... I dunno, I guess he'll share playing time with Hairston. Or Neifi Perez. Walker is a good hitter for a second baseman, and can hit lefties well enough that he doesn't really need to be platooned.

3B - Aramis Ramirez - He rediscovered his power stroke and had an extremely impressive season; he might have gotten more notice if Scott Rolen and Adrian Beltre hadn't done even better. His strikeouts were way down, while his walks were slightly up; he hits the ball hard, and often. Ramirez is not a good defensive third baseman, but at least he cut his errors from 33 to 10. Should be entering his prime years.

SS - Nomar Garciaparra - He had a rough year. Nomar began the season on the DL with a sore Achilles' tendon, and didn't play his first game until June 9. He struggled defensively, and was accused of being a clubhouse cancer, a claim fuelled by images of him sitting in the dugout with a sour face while the Sox lost to the Yankees.

He was dealt to the Cubs, but didn't hit as well as he can, and sat out a week in September with a groin injury. The Cubbies missed the playoffs, and of course the Sox were World Champions.

Now 31 years old, he'll be back in Chicago in 2005. We will never see the Nomar of 2000 again, with a little motivation and some better health, he can still be a very good hitter.

LF - Todd Hollandsworth/Jason DuBois - Hollandsworth revitalized his career with two super-hot months, before he went on the DL with a shin injury and never returned. But with Alou gone, there is a chance for him to get some at bats.

Hollandsworth has had two months that suggest that he can play everyday, as opposed to seven years that suggest that he can't. So he will have to compete with Dubois, who had a monster season at Iowa. Dubois is 26, too old to be considered a prospect with high upside, but someone who can easily hit .260 with 25 homers if given the chance.

CF - Corey Patterson - He stayed healthy and hit 24 home runs; that was the good news. The bad news was everything else. A .266 average, combined with 168 strikeouts and 485 outs, is not going to produce a lot of runs; Patterson scored only 91 runs, despite going up to the plate 687 times. Only 25 years old; over the next few years, he will hit for a better average and will draw a few more walks, and that will make him a decent player. His chance of being a star doesn't look so good now.

RF - Jeromy Burnitz - Well, we know that in 2002, at age 32, he had a terrible season. In 2003, he was great in half a season for the Mets, but terrible in half a season with the Dodgers. Last season with Colorado, he was great at Coors Field, not so good anywhere else.

So now he's 36, and it's hard to say whether he has another 30-homer season in him or whether he's completely washed up. Such are the perils of dealing with ex-Rockies.

IF/OF - Jerry Hairston - He began the year on the disabled list, and lost the second base job to Brian Roberts. He came back, was moved to the outfield, hit real well... and broke his ankle while trying to make a catch.

Hairston doesn't hit well enough to play in the outfield, but he does hit .300 and will take a walk, making him a solid second baseman. Staying healthy is the key, and so far he's been unable to do it.

SP - Mark Prior - He began the year on the disabled list with an inflamed Achilles' tendon, then during the summer was bothered by a sore elbow, sparking rumours that he would need surgery.

As it turned out, the elbow was merely "irritated" and he finished the season. In September, he threw 37 innings with a 2.17 ERA, struck out 43 batters while walking only seven. He struck out 16 in his final start of the year.

With the ascension of both Ben Sheets and Jake Peavy, Prior is no longer necessarily the league's premier right-handed power pitcher. But he's still the leading bet to be the NL's top pitcher for the next ten years.

SP - Kerry Wood - Sigh. You have your good, and you have your bad. The good is that Wood is steadily improving his control while remaining a dominant power pitcher. With his combination of great stuff, and his growing knowledge of what to do with it, he seems as close as ever to becoming a great pitcher.

But he also spent two months on the DL with triceps tendinitis. I can see his career going either way, either a series of constant trips to the disabled list, or a breakthrough like what Jason Schmidt has done. He's similar to where Schmidt was four years ago.

SP - Carlos Zambrano - Big, strong, nasty right-hander who gets large numbers of strikeouts and ground balls, and who also likes to hit people. 24 years old, everything about him is wonderful.

SP - Greg Maddux - Won 16 games for the third straight year, and has won at least 15 games every year since 1988. Both his strikeout rate and strikeout/walk ratio were his highest in three years. He will be 39 years old next year, and that's the only concern I have about him.

RP - LaTroy Hawkins - He signed on to be the setup man, but was forced to take over the closer's role after Borowski's meltdown. He had his struggles but survived and did a decent job; of his nine blown saves, the Cubs came back and won five of those games.

Entering this season, Hawkins is competing for the closer's role with Ryan Dempster, Mike Remlinger and Borowski. He's the best pitcher of that group.

St. Louis Cardinals

On the surface of things, there was no obvious reason why the Cardinals were so improved in 2004. They had three MVP candidates, Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds, but those guys are always real good, while Edgar Renteria had an off year. The defence was terrific, but it wasn't better than in 2003. The pitching staff was exceptional - but none of their pitchers received a single vote in either the MVP or Cy Young voting.

But they were healthy. I don't think you can stress often enough the importance of having a healthy pitching staff; Matt Morris, Chris Carpenter and Jason Isringhausen have all had chronic arm troubles in the past, but were exceptionally healthy and effective all year, until Carpenter was hurt at the end of the season. The Cardinals used five regular starters and seven relievers; no one else threw more than 20 innings.

It was a stunning reversal of fortune for a team that had been plagued by injury troubles. From 1997 to 2001, a brilliant core of young pitchers was almost wiped out by injury; Morris was the only one to come back, although Rick Ankiel is still trying.

If you're a Cardinals fan, you have to be worried that their luck with injuries won't continue for a second season.

CA - Yadier Molina - The Cards' new starting catcher, 23 years old, appeared to take a significant step forward as a hitter last season. Molina hasn't developed much power yet, but has good plate discipline. It helps that the team has tremendous confidence in his defence.

1B - Albert Pujols - He was again the best hitter in baseball not named Bonds, and also played excellent defence at first base, despite playing at least three months with plantar fasciitis in his left foot. After the season, he elected for therapy instead of surgery; assuming that he can still walk, Pujols obviously enters the season as the #1 MVP candidate in the league.

2B - Mark Grudzielanek - The Cubs-Cardinals rivalry had some fuel added to the fire when Grudzielanek crossed sides. Well... maybe a little bit. He missed the first three months after partially tearing his ACL. When he came back he hit .300 and did everything that he usually does. This year, he will partner with David Eckstein in the Cardinals' new, "scrappy" middle infield.

3B - Scott Rolen - He was bothered by a sore knee in July, but played through it and played great. Then came a sore calf in September that knocked him out of the lineup for three weeks, and hampered him in the postseason.

With Barry Bonds doing his thing, Rolen needed a perfect season to win the MVP. He came pretty damn close, and minus the injury would have had an interesting argument. He had a great year as a hitter, though obviously not in Bonds' class; with the glove, he is probably the best defensive player in baseball right now, at any position. I didn't see the Cardinals play often last season, but I must have seen Rolen make about a half-dozen plays that I've never seen another third baseman make.

SS - David Eckstein - A marginal shortstop who shouldn't be playing every day - and is terribly miscast as a leadoff hitter. Since his breakthrough season two years ago, Eckstein hasn't hit with any power, hasn't come close to hitting .300, hasn't drawn a lot of walks, and only gets hit by half as many pitches as he used to. His range and throwing arm at short are both limited.

LF - Reggie Sanders - His streak of thriving in odd-numbered seasons now goes back to 1995; he was OK last year with the Cardinals but nothing special. Now 37 years old, still has some speed, can still turn on a pitch.

CF - Jim Edmonds - An outstanding hitter who just had the best season of his career with the bat. Defensively, he can still make the dazzling over-the-shoulder catches when he gets close to the ball, but he's not getting any faster.

RF - Larry Walker - A great player who didn't miss a beat after he was traded to sea level. A graceful, powerful player at both the bat and the field. Too bad he is 38 years old; he will be missed.

SP - Mark Mulder - It is hard to remember that Mulder was the Cy Young favourite at the All-Star break. He was leading the league with 12 wins, while Santana didn't find his groove until mid-May.

Then came a 5.11 ERA in July, a 5.14 ERA in August, then a horrific 8.10 ERA in September. Oh, and an 18.00 ERA in October - just one start, in which he was pounded by the Angels, ending the Athletics' playoff hopes.

Mulder insists that he did not have an injury. Which is really frustrating, because at least if he had an injury it would help explain why a pitcher who has been so good for so long would suddenly turn into horsepoop.

The Athletics traded him for some younger arms; the Cardinals expect him to be their staff ace. There's no point in trying to analyze the stats; either he's hurt, or he's not. And I don't know the answer.

SP - Matt Morris - He was pretty lousy, and won't be pitching in another three years, but I think that Morris has a mild comeback season in him. He's in decline but isn't going to go away that fast.

SP - Jeff Suppan - Won 16 games in 2004, but everything else in his record screams "STAY AWAY!" Will turn 30 in January, then will turn 40 in May.

SP - Jason Marquis- He gave the Cardinals what they needed, 200 innings and 15 wins. He's not overpowering but gets ground balls; he also walks too many batters. Expect his ERA to jump unless he starts throwing more strikes.

SP - Chris Carpenter - That he came back after losing two seasons to injury was a major surprise; that he was throwing the ball like Tim Hudson was an even bigger surprise. The only non-surprise of the season was when he strained his biceps in late September, and missed the postseason.

The control that Carpenter displayed last year was a revelation; even in his best days with Toronto, he didn't show that kind of command. Maybe he's matured, or maybe he was just never sound to begin with when he was with the Jays.

RP - Julian Tavarez - His epic career took a few more twists and turns. Tavarez posted his best ERA since 1995, working within Tony LaRussa's one-batter-and-you're-gone bullpen. In Game Four of the NLCS he surrendered a home run to Carlos Beltran, then responded by throwing a pitch at Jeff Bagwell's head, and then breaking his left hand by punching a phone. Remarkably, he picked up the win in Game Six with two shutout innings, then a Hold in Game Seven with another shutout inning.

He's obviously not someone you can count on, but Tavarez has had some good years, and appears to have rediscovered his control after losing it during a mid-career crisis.

RP - Ray King - Not much to say about King. He's fat, he's left-handed, and he gets people out. He's in a comfortable niche, and there's no reason to expect a change in performance.

RP - Jason Isringhausen - Had an outstanding season, saving 47 games while setting career highs in games pitched and relief innings. As with fellow curveballers Gregg Olson and Flash Gordon, health has always been, and will continue to be, his biggest question mark.

Houston Astros

As most people know, the Astros had an astounding winter, during which they lost two key players (Carlos Beltran and Jeff Kent) and added nobody. Their G.M. resigned shortly after the end of the season; his replacement gave $18 million to Roger Clemens and won the John Franco sweepstakes, but little else. He even failed to re-sign his second-best reliever (Dan Miceli), who instead opted to pitch in Japan. To make things worse, their best player tore his ACL and will be out for a couple of months.

Now, they are coming off of the most successful season in franchise history; they had an amazing finish to the season and clinched a wild card berth, then won their first playoff series and came within a game of going to the World Series. They still have, potentially, a very good starting rotation if the Rocket can do it again at age 42. I have been Googling for a little bit, making a pit stop at the Houston Chronicle and some Astros blogs, and from what I've read, everyone is keeping their spirits up.

But they're an old team, they're not a very healthy team, and they don't have much in terms of promising young players. Every time I look at the glass, it's half empty.

CA - Brad Ausmus - Ausmus is a terrible hitter and is now 36 years old. But the Astros are convinced that he is vital for the success of their pitching staff. I don't know if this is true, but given that the past four seasons have been a crushing disappointment for the Astros, you might think that they would try something new.

1B - Jeff Bagwell - He had the worst season of his career, redeemed by a strong September and his first good postseason performance. And with 27 home runs and 96 walks, he still puts runs on the board. He has an arthritic shoulder that isn't getting better. At age 37, he's just trying to hang on for another year as an average first baseman.

2B - Chris Burke - I have no idea who is going to play where for the Astros; Biggio may return to second base this year. But Burke had a nice year at New Orleans, cracking 16 homers after not hitting more than three in any previous professional season. 25 years old, has an excellent defensive reputation; time to step up and win a job, son.

3B - Morgan Ensberg - He had a stinky season, to put it mildly; Ensberg managed to play the first three months of the season without hitting a home run. He then hit 10 in the second half, too little too late. The Astros will give Mike Lamb a long look, but Ensberg may get a second chance if Lamb is needed in the outfield.

SS - Adam Everett - OK shortstop, a good glove with a weak bat but not one of the worst. Everett broke his left wrist during the summer and missed the final two months, and didn't start in the playoffs. Not likely to get better, unless he's the new Kevin Elster.

LF - Craig Biggio/Mike Lamb - Biggio reinvented himself at age 38, dropping his scrappy, tenacious approach and swinging from the heels more often. The result was 71 extra-base hits, including a career-high 24 home runs, but an on-base percentage 35 points below his career average.

It was still his best season with the bat in three years. Problem is, he no longer has a defensive position. Biggio doesn't hit enough to be a good corner outfielder, and can't play centre field well enough. This year, he might return to second base, where he hasn't played since 2002. Now 39 years old; if he's playing second, my guess is that he gets hurt.

Lamb reinvigorated his career with a very hot start to the season; he tailed off as he got more playing time later in the year, though he hit five homers in September. He's always been able to hit for a good average, but is otherwise limited offensively; if his power surge is for real, then he can easily win some at bats in the outfield or at third.

CF - Jason Lane - For the record, Terry Puhl is only two years older than Julio Franco, in case the Astros need some outfield help. But they're hoping that they can depend on Lane, who has had a frustrating time the past three years after looking like he might be real good in 2001. Now 28 years old; Berkman's injury and Beltran's departure and Biggio's age have opened up a huge opportunity. Can hit 25 homers if things break right.

RF - Lance Berkman - A great hitter and the Astros' best player, Berkman had one of his best years and was a force over the last two months when the Stros made their playoff charge.

Unfortunately, he tore his right ACL while playing flag football after the season. He will miss a couple of months, with Mike Lamb or Orlando Palmeiro or Jim Wynn or somebody filling in.

SP - Roy Oswalt - He wasn't the best pitcher in the league but he was real good. A healthy Oswalt is obviously a top candidate to win the Cy Young award.

SP - Roger Clemens - Clemens will be 42 years old this season, and is still one of the top five starters in baseball. If he lets up even 2% on his workout regimen his career will be ended by injury in early May, but there is no obvious reason why a healthy Rocket cannot continue to kick ass.

SP - Andy Pettitte - Incredibly, he is boosting his strikeout rate as he gets older; Pettitte last season barely missed averaging a strikeout per inning. This despite spending half the season on the DL, then having surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon. He is a better pitcher now than he has been since 1997; if he can just stay healthy, I would expect that some of his best years are still in his future.

SP - Brandon Backe - Another reason why no trade can be considered "insignificant". Backe was a minor league veteran who was drafted by Tampa Bay as a position player, then converted to the mound. At age 26, he had had a couple of short cups of coffee with the Devil Rays, then was traded to the Astros for Geoff Blum. He strained his hamstring in the spring, then was demoted to New Orleans.

You know the rest. He was called up during the summer, moved into the rotation when needed, and pitched brilliantly in the playoffs. He enters 2005 in the Astros' rotation, and should be a solid #4-5 starter. Even when he doesn't pitch well, he's a guy who can help himself out with his bat.

SP - Pete Munro - He began the season deeply buried on the Astros' depth chart, but ended up starting in the playoffs, thanks to injuries to Pettitte and Miller, and the implosions of Tim Redding and Brandon Duckworth.

SP - Carlos Hernandez - He was the Astros' best prospect two years ago, when he made 22 starts with the big club at age 22. He lost 2003 after having surgery for a torn labrum; last year, he came back, but did next to nothing to indicate that he can pitch in the majors. Only 25 years old, and the Astros are still hoping for good things from him, but it's a long road back.

RP - Tim Redding - He had a horrible season. Redding will likely get an opportunity to re-establish himself in long relief; otherwise, I'm having difficulty thinking of something nice to say about him.

RP - John Franco - 44 years old; I don't expect him to throw any pitches in an Astros uniform.

RP - Chad Harville/Chad Qualls - With Miceli overseas, the Astros will be looking at the Chads to help carry the bullpen burden. Harville has kicked around awhile, a former top prospect who has been hampered by injuries and control problems. Qualls is big and tall and a little younger; his season got off to a disastrous start at New Orleans, but got better after he was moved to the bullpen.

Neither is an idea setup man. They are both high-risk pitchers whose upside is what they did last year. They both have OK arms and have had a few weeks of success, and that's about the best you can say about them.

RP - Brad Lidge - He pitched brilliantly, and took over the closer's role after Dotel was traded. His performance during both the regular season and the playoffs was astonishing. The heavy workload is a bit of a concern, but Lidge looks like he's going to be way good.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Every year, baseball pundits like to pick a "surprise" team that can jump up and win something. Like, say, Anaheim in 2002 or Florida in 2003. This season, the pretty obvious choice is Pittsburgh. The Central Division likely won't have a runaway winner like the Cardinals in 2004. And the Pirates... well, they've got Jason Bay and Oliver Perez; that's a pretty damned good nucleus. The supporting cast kinda sucks, but... with some luck and some tweaks, it could work out.

The Brewers are rebuilding; the Reds are... well, doing something. The Cards are due for a letdown, and the Astros are ancient. The Cubbies still have health concerns. It's not likely to happen; there are still lots of holes in the roster, and their ownership is pretty cheap. But there is promise down the road, and the future could arrive sooner than expected.

CA - Benito Santiago/Humberto Cota - Admittedly, replacing Jason Kendall with Santiago was not a step in the right direction. Benito was having a decent season with the Royals until he was hit in the hand by a pitch in June, and never came back. Will be 40 years old, and will share time with youngster Humberto Cota; Cota was a good prospect when he was 22, but is now 25 and has gone backwards.

The Pirates will need some luck for this position to shake itself out OK. No one in Pittsburgh seems to be talking about J.R. House, a young player who can hit and who made a solid comeback last year at Nashville after losing two seasons to injury.

1B - Craig Wilson - The Pirates gave him a chance to play every day, and he did pretty good. Wilson was awesome the first two months of the season, but also suffered terrible slumps in June and September. He led the team in home runs, runs scored and RBI, and the Pirates weren't going to get that production from Randall Simon or Raul Mondesi. Was also hit by 30 pitches, which led the league; he should be good for another few years.

2B - Jose Castillo - He jumped from AA to the majors, then won the second base job with the Pirates. His season wasn't good, but also wasn't bad for a guy who skipped a level. Castillo has limited upside, but he should do a little more of everything in 2005, plus he has a chance to double his home run output.

3B - Ty Wigginton/Rob Mackowiak - Wigginton had an OK season; he played well with the Mets but struggled after he was traded to Pittsburgh. He will get his at bats; he is slated to play third but can also handle second if needed. Mackowiak plays several positions; he had a terrific May but otherwise had a disappointing year. Both of these guys can help.

SS - Jack Wilson - Entering 2004, Wilson was a catch-and-throw guy, a fine defensive shortstop who couldn't hit. But his bat caught fire the first three months of the season; he regressed during the summer, but finished on a hot streak in September. Right now, he's Rick Burleson; most years he will be a below-average hitter but will have the occasional one like last season.

LF - Jason Bay - As a Canadian, I feel bad that I didn't see more of Bay in the year that he became the first Canadian to win the Rookie of the Year. But, you know, Pittsburgh just didn't come across the schedule too often... anyways, I'll watch him more in 2005. He should continue to hit for a good average; he also appears to be an excellent defensive outfielder. The question is whether his power potential is "Good", "Very Good" or "Freakin' Awesome".

CF - Tike Redman - Played every day for the Pirates in centre field, but didn't make the most out of the opportunity. Redman hit .280, which isn't bad but he needs to hit .300 to be useful; and though patience has never been one of his virtues, 23 walks was still a disappointment. His ability to hit .300 and play centre field should make him a valuable fourth outfielder.

RF - Matt Lawton - After struggling for two years with injuries, Lawton rebounded with one of the best seasons of his career. He was terrific the first half of the year before he tailed off in the second half; now 33 years old, his secondary skills (74 walks, 20 homers, 23 stolen bases) make him an ideal hitter at the top of the order.

SP - Oliver Perez - In the year in which Johan Santana took the league by storm, Perez toiled in relative obscurity. But he had 240 strikeouts at age 22. He has the talent of a Santana or a Koufax, and is a much better pitcher than they were at the same age. He just needs to stay healthy, and keep doing what he's doing.

SP - Kip Wells - He had a crappy season, one that was hindered by repeated elbow inflammation. But I would still rather have Wells than Pavano, Benson, Milton, Perez and most of the other overpaid free agents from this winter.

SP - Mark Redman - His season wasn't terrible, but that's the only good thing you can say about it. More walks, many more home runs and a sharp decline in strikeouts is not a good sign for a pitcher whose stuff isn't the best to begin with. The Pirates are hoping that moving back to the National League will help, but it's not as if Oakland is a terrible place to pitch. Redman needs to make an adjustment, fast... quite possibly the worst hitting pitcher of this or any other generation.

SP - Josh Fogg - I've been rooting for Fogg, but it's time to admit that he kinda sucks. I don't see much of a future anymore.

SP - Ryan Vogelsong - A hard-throwing pitcher who got the snot beat out of him last year. If he has the ability to pitch in the majors, then he's done an excellent job of keeping it well hidden.

RP - Salomon Torres - Fourteen years ago, he was Zack Greinke; the stardom thing didn't work out, and for four years (1998-2001) he wasn't pitching professional ball in the United States. But his return has been spectacular; last year was the first time he had been used exclusively in the bullpen, and he was one of the best, hardest-working relievers in the league.

RP - Mike Gonzalez - His performance in 2004 was astonishing. Gonzalez has been winding his way through the Pirates' system since 1997, failing to make progress as a starting pitcher and also set back by injuries. In 2003 he was traded to Boston, and then back to Pittsburgh, one of Theo Epstein's few missteps. Last year, he was called up, sent down, then called up again for good in June; a pitcher with a reputation for control problems, he struck out 55 batters in 43 innings while walking only six. 27 years old, throws the ball in the upper 90's; his health is a concern, but everything else looks great.

RP - Jose Mesa - His roller-coaster career took another unexpected swing upwards; now he's at the top of the loop, and the only direction left is down. Fortunately, the Pirates have other options if the 2003 Mesa Model resurfaces this season.

Milwaukee Brewers

The first half of the season was way good. The Brewers, at the end of June, were 40-34. Unfortunately, they were 27-60 the rest of the way. Still, it was a season of baby steps; Ben Sheets developed into an awesome ace, the superkids on the farm are a year closer to reaching the majors, and the Selig's have sold the team.

Prince Fielder is one of the top power prospects in the game. Rickie Weeks had a disappointing year at Huntsville but remains a good prospect. They have some other quality young players, plus they had a pretty decent winter, picking up Carlos Lee for not much. I would like to be a Brewers fan in 2007; as for this year, well, it's about baby steps.

CA - Damian Miller/Chad Moeller - Miller rebounded from a poor 2003 season and posted his usual numbers. He is now 35, but has been amazingly consistent in five of the past six seasons. Assuming that his workload stays the same, I'm not going to get worried about his age for another year or two.

The backup, Moeller, had the starting job last season and really stunk it up, but is capable of much better.

1B - Lyle Overbay - Like Travis Hafner, he did his best to prove that there is no such as a Triple-A hitter. Overbay consistently hit well over .300 in the minors but never got any respect, nor much of an opportunity with the DBacks. The Brewers let him play, and he was great for four months. He struggled in August in September but still had good numbers.

I'm not surprised that Overbay hit .300; the 70 extra-base hits and 81 walks were a surprise, though. He will keep hitting singles, but the test will be whether he can keep up the walks and power.

2B - Junior Spivey - He did what he does best, hitting .270 with some walks and some power. A nice little player, will do the job at second base for the Brewers until Rickie Weeks is ready to step in.

3B - Wes Helms/Russell Branyan - Helms opened the season with the third base job, but his power completely disappeared, and his defence was troublesome. Enter Branyan, whose numbers, when projected over a full season, always add up to over 30 homers and over 200 strikeouts. Neither should play every day; the Brewers will hoping to find a comfortable niche for both of them.

SS - J.J. Hardy - Very young Brewers shortstop, 22 years old, has yet to play in the major leagues. He's got the glove, and his bat is improving; he had a good start to last season at Indianapolis, but tore the labrum in his left shoulder in May and missed the rest of the season.

He should spend at least a half season more at Indianapolis, but what the heck, it's not like the Brewers have any better options. But if they're going to start the year with him, they should be prepared to be patient through some bumpy stretches .

LF - Carlos Lee - He had his best season, and the White Sox didn't win, so obviously he wasn't good enough to help them win, or something like that. That the White Sox traded him was no surprise; that the Brewers actually went out and acquired a quality player in his prime, making $8 million a year, was unexpected. Perhaps Ebenezer Selig felt that before selling the team, he actually needed to spend some money on some quality players.

CF - Brady Clark/Dave Krynzel - Clark did himself a favour last year by showing some patience at the plate and getting on base; after the Podsednik trade, he is now ticketed to be the Brewers' centre fielder. 32 years old, a minor league journeyman with no upside. He needs to work very, very hard to use his limited skills to his advantage.

The competition will come from Krynzel, who is 23 years old and still a couple of years away. He is not a major leaguer hitter yet, nor really all that close; he's fast but has been a poor basestealer in the minors. My guess is that Krynzel will play the first half of the season at Indianapolis, and we'll what progress he makes.

RF - Geoff Jenkins - He had a disappointing year. His batting average was down, his walks were way down, while he set career highs in strikeouts and GIDP. He still hasn't hit 30 home runs in a season since 2000. But he did play in 157 games, easily the best total in a career that has been plagued by injuries. And he CAN be a great player, if he hits near .300 (which he has done three times) and hits 30 home runs and plays his usually outstanding defence. He's 30 years old and can be a frustrating player but you can't ignore his upside.

SP - Ben Sheets - The bad news was his run support. The Brewers scored 3.53 runs per game in Sheets' starts, the third-worst total in baseball, and stuck him with a losing record.

The good news is, well, everything else. At age 25, Sheets established himself as a dominant power pitcher, striking out 264 batters while walking only 32. He struck out 18 batters in one game. He set a career high in innings pitched, but didn't seem to mind the extra work; in September he had a 1.84 ERA while striking out 50 batters in 44 innings. He's the pitcher that every team dreams about.

SP - Doug Davis - Where the hell did that come from? Davis' strikeout rate and K/BB ratio were by far the best of his career. It was a fine season from a pitcher whose career had been a major disappointment.

Looking ahead... well, he's still Doug F. Davis, but there's nothing in the numbers not to like.

SP - Victor Santos - He survived almost a full year in the starting rotation, pitching real well for three months before he faded badly in August and September. Santos has a limited upside but is capable of doing a little better.

SP - Wes Obermueller - While the Brewers scramble to find four starting pitchers to complement Sheets, Obermueller gets to fill in for a bit. Like Santos, he's not very good but can do a little better than what he did last year.

SP - Chris Capuano - He was having a nice little year before he blew up in August and was disabled with a sore elbow. He also spent a month on the DL with a quad injury. He appears to be a decent young lefthander who may be ticketed for the bullpen.

RP - Ricky Bottalico - After almost two years on the sidelines, Bottalico returned and had a solid year as setup man for the Mets. The Brewers acquired him to replace Vizcaino, and as insurance if Adams falters; he's a good pitcher, but his weak control and his injury history obviously limit his role on a team.

RP - Mike Adams - He was dominating at Indianapolis, then joined the Brewers and continued to pitch very well. 25 years old, throws hard; the Brewers traded both their closer and their setup man, which doesn't leave much doubt over what Adams' future role is.

Cincinnati Reds

Holy crap, I wouldn't want to be a Reds fan in 2005. This team lost 86 games last year, and their Pythagorean record indicates that they should have lost 95. The only other team to outperform their Pythagorean record by that margin was the Yankees; at least, in New York's case, you can argue that their bullpen and their Yankeeness helped them to overachieve. In the case of the Reds... I gotta think it was pretty much good luck and nothing else.

That's all theoretical, of course; but the actual roster also doesn't inspire much confidence. The pitching staff is wretched; defensively, they're shaky at shortstop, and they still have Griffey Jr. in the outfield. They could score some runs if Dunn, Kearns, Pena and Casey stay healthy and produce (a fairly weighty IF), but how are they going to stop other teams from scoring?

CA - Jason LaRue - He had his best season with the plate, batting over .250 for the first time. He has not improved his plate discipline at all since he broke into the league, but he has learned how to turn his shoulder into pitches. He has increased his HBP total every year since he was a rookie, from two in 1999 to 24 last year.

1B - Sean Casey - He had a great season after three years of injuries and career drift. He almost never strikes out, and when he hit the ball last year he usually hit it hard. Now 30 years old; his career to this point has mirrored Mike Greenwell's closely, and Greenwell didn't have much left after his age 29 comeback year.

2B - D'Angelo Jimenez - The Reds put him in the lineup every day, and he had a real good year. Jimenez has terrific secondary skills - he draws walks, has decent power for a second baseman, and can run a bit. Now with his fourth team, at age 27; two of his previous teams (Yankees, White Sox) wish they had him back.

3B - Joe Randa - A remarkably consistent hitter, his OPS in 2004 was three points off his career average... as he ages, his performance stays the same but his durability is declining. Last year he missed time after tearing some cartilage in his knee. A decent player, will be 35 years old but finished the year strong.

SS - Felipe Lopez/Rich Aurilia - Barry Larkin gave the Reds one last good season before he retired; now Lopez gets another chance. He was, in 2001, a hot prospect with the Jays, but they didn't like his attitude and he struggled with the bat in 2002, so they dumped him on the Reds. He justified Toronto's decision by playing horribly for Cincy in 2003, then had his season ended by torn ligaments in his knee.

He came back and earned a starting job with the Reds last year. Lopez is still only 25 years old; his plate discipline is poor and he strikes out a tonne, but he has rare power potential for a shortstop. He will have to fight for the job with Aurilia; and honestly, if he can't win that battle then he doesn't deserve the job. At this point in his career, Aurilia is versatile and nothing more.

LF - Adam Dunn - Dunn is still prone to the occassional deep slump, but also had some blazing hot streaks and had a great year. He has tremendous power, and also drew over 100 walks; he set a season record with 195 strikeouts but who cares. Only 25 years old.

CF - Wily Mo Pena - He had an eye-popping season, mashing 26 home runs at age 22 while grabbing an everyday job in a crowded Reds outfield. His lack of plate discipline is a concern but he has lots of time to work on it; most of the players who had his power at his age turned out to be really good.

CF - Ken Griffey Jr. - In his first game of the year, Griffey made a nice diving catch in the outfield - though the air was sucked out of Great American Ballpark until he got back on his feet. He managed to play 83 games, and showed that he still has good power, until a torn right hamstring ended his season.

It seems obvious to everyone but Griffey that he can't play the outfield anymore. If he's going to stay in Cincinnati, he needs to play left field and follow two simple rules: (1) never leave your feet, and (2) don't run hard after anything. Given that the Reds also have Pena, it would be crazy if Griffey is back in centre this year.

RF - Austin Kearns - The good news is that he is still only 25 years old, and is a young hitter with remarkable talent. The bad news is that three of the past four seasons have been ruined by injury. and there is no room for him to play. I remain optimistic about Kearns; last year we saw two Reds (Dunn, Casey) recover from a career nadir, and if he gets his at bats, Kearns should do the same. I don't want to jinx Griffey Jr., but I'm guessing that an injury will give him the opportunity to play.

IF/OF - Ryan Freel - He had significant playing time at five different positions, and received over 500 at bats. Freel is a nice utility player, plays all over the field, runs well, hits for a decent average and will draw a walk. The addition of Randa, and possible return of Kearns and Griffey, should move him back into a more appropriate bench role.

SP - Jose Acevedo - His game plan for 2004 (throws strikes, get people out) was a good one, but had ugly results, thanks to 30 home runs allowed. Acevedo is a pitcher of modest ability, but will do better if he sticks with the plan.

SP - Eric Milton - He is an OK left-handed starter, usually good for 200 innings and an ERA around league average. The Reds signed him to a $25.5 million contract, which was about $19.25 million too much; when I say "OK", I don't mean that he's Mark Mulder.

He was hurt last year by giving up 43 home runs; his 14-6 record was mostly the result of tremendous run support from his teammates.

SP - Paul Wilson - The most consistent pitcher in baseball. With normal luck, he would go 10-12 every year. In 2004, Wilson won his first seven decisions before reality hit home; he still finished with his first winning season. The Reds should be realistic about his abilities.

SP - Ramon Ortiz - After winning 16 games in 2003 (but not pitching well), Ortiz had a horrible April (9.28 ERA) and was banished to the bullpen. From then on he was excellent, except for August when he had to make five starts. His ERA as a reliever was 2.76; as a starter, 5.47.

He was traded to Cincy after the season. According to the Reds' website, Ortiz is ticketed for the starting rotation in 2005. This makes no sense to me, given his record last year, and given that Graves and Mercker aren't exactly Dibble and Myers. Sometimes, you just have to roll with what's working.

SP - Aaron Harang - He had a disappointing season. Harang should have been the Reds' best starting pitcher, but was hurt by 26 gopher balls. He also went on the DL in June with a sprained elbow, then complained of a dead arm in September.

I still think he will be better than Milton or Wilson, but the dead arm thing is disconcerting.

RP - Danny Graves - After a failed attempt to move into the starting rotation, he returned to the bullpen. He had a crazy May in which he pitched almost every day, and by the end of the month had 24 saves, a record pace. He didn't do so well the rest of the year, and had a disastrous August during which he was disabled with back spasms.

Graves is a good pitcher when healthy, not an elite closer but a guy who can rip off a bunch of saves when he gets on a roll. Last year, he worked only 68 innings in 68 games; earlier in his career when he was at his best he was averaging 90 innings a season, and I don't know why the Reds cut back on his workload.

WEST

San Diego Padres

By choosing the Padres to win the West, I am ignoring a fundamental rule of baseball, that a team that takes a big step forward one year usually takes a step back the next. The Padres improved from 98 losses in 2003 to 87 wins last year, so you might think that they are due for a letdown. Maybe, but there are exceptions to every rule; given the dilapidated state of the Giants, Diamondbacks and Rockies, I like San Diego's chances.

The Dodgers deserve to be the favourites, but I think the Padres will win. They have wonderful young talent and some quality veterans; they have a very solid pitching staff, and some good defenders to back them up. If Trevor Hoffman fails, then they have two good setup men who can step in and be the closer. I like their chances.

CA - Ramon Hernandez - Hernandez had his best year with the bat, and had the pleasure of handling a Padre pitching staff that made a stunning improvement from a year before. The only downside to his season was a knee injury that put him on the disabled list. 29 years old; will be watching what Jason Varitek signs for this winter, because in a couple of years the media may be slobbering all over him the same way they are with Tek.

1B - Phil Nevin - The Nevinator came back from two injury-plagued seasons to have a good year with the Padres. Now 34 years old; with luck, he might have one more good year left, assuming that he can stay healthy. I really wouldn't want to depend on him in 2005.

2B - Mark Loretta - At age 32, he quietly had an MVP-calibre season. In mid-career, he has developed into both an outstanding hitter and defensive player, and right now is the best second baseman in baseball. Age is the only thing working against him.

3B - Sean Burroughs - See Alex Rios... Burroughs is still young (24) and has almost developed into a .300 hitter. He hit only two home runs last year, which is kinda pathetic.... but he will hit for more power in the future, because, well, everybody does.

SS - Khalil Greene - Greene's rookie season was way good. He showed off a lot of range at shortstop, and moving to the big leagues had no effect on the steady progress he has been making with the bat the past three seasons. 25 years old, has time to take the one step he needs to become an All-Star.

LF - Ryan Klesko - He hit only three home runs at The Pet, raising concerns that his new home park was swallowing his power. Of course, he hit only six on the road, which isn't exactly a Ruthian total. Even without the home runs, he is still an awfully good hitter who doesn't give away many easy outs.

CF - Dave Roberts - When a team wins a championship, the other 29 teams tend to overvalue the contributions made by each player. Such is the case with Roberts, whom the Padres HAD to have, and they even sent three players and some cash to Boston to get him. As a pinch-runner, he pulled off some brilliant baserunning in the playoffs; of course, someone else had to get on base beforehand.

Roberts is a decent player, a great baserunner who will take some walks. But he's also 33 years old, has never played a full season, and really isn't as good as the guy he's replacing (Payton).

RF - Brian Giles - OK, we all know the bad news. The Padres traded Jason Bay and Oliver Perez to get Giles in 2003... and you know, it's not a totally farfetched idea that Bay and Perez could be the MVP/Cy Young winners this year or next. I'm not sure what's more remarkable, that the Padres traded away two young players of such quality, or that they still have a half dozen more who may be almost as good.

Anyways, Giles had a good year in 2004, and is now 33 years old. I'm going to go out on a short limb, and say that Giles will partially redeem the trade by having a monster season in 2005. If guys like Edmonds and Finley can age well, I don't see why Giles can't.

SP - Woody Williams - Now 38 years old, but is replacing David Wells, so the Padres' rotation is getting younger. Williams is aging gracefully, and should give the Padres more good starts than bad ones. Beyond that, their expectations should be limited.

SP - Brian Lawrence - He has established himself as an average pitcher who can throw 200 innings. He's not going to get better, but he's a guy that every staff needs.

SP - Adam Eaton - Had his second full season in the rotation following elbow reconstructive surgery. It was a bit of a disappointment, but he appears to be getting stronger. The Padres have their ace in Peavy, and their 3-4-5 guys in Lawrence, Williams and May. The question is whether Eaton can step up and be a solid #2 pitcher. Given the strength of his strikeout/walk data, I'm going to say "Yes".

SP - Jake Peavy - He quietly led the National League in ERA. Peavy had a sore oblique in March, a tight forearm in May and then missed all of June after he was disabled with an inflamed elbow. He still managed to make 27 starts, and was brilliant in almost every one of them. 24 years old; if he's healthy, he's a Cy Young favourite.

SP - Darrell May - He pitched over his head in 2003, but is better than he looked last year. Despite the 18 losses and ugly ERA, his strikeout rate and K/W ratio were both good; May should give the Padres a solid #5 starter.

RP - Scott Linebrink - Since coming to San Diego, he has quietly done an exceptional job of getting people out. Throws hard and throws strikes; is third in line for the closer's job, behind Hoffman and Otsuka, but is pretty damn good insurance.

RP - Akinori Otsuka - A 32-year-old rookie from Japan, Otsuka arrived with impressive credentials, and had a brilliant season. Like many non-North American hurlers, he has a funky delivery; some people think that, with runners on base, he should be charged with a balk, yet one more reason why the balk rule should be eliminated.

RP - Trevor Hoffman - He had a wonderful comeback season, saving 41 games while posting his best ERA since the glory years. He threw nothing but strikes and missed a lot of bats. Hoffman is now 37 and is strictly a one-inning pitcher.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Before last season, the Dodgers hired a new GM, Paul DePodesta, who previously had worked with Billy Beane in Oakland, and whose name is almost as synonymous with Moneyball. The Dodgers' new owner is a little short on cash, so... the idea was that DePodesta could cut some salary while still improving team. The mission was pretty much accomplished, as DePodesta was able to dump Kevin Brown while the Dodgers made the postseason for the first time in eight seasons.

Over the past nine months, DePodesta has demonstrated pretty clearly that he marches to the beat of a different drummer - perhaps Neil Peart, who has often been accused of drumming with technical precision but no emotion. DePodesta sent the greater Los Angeles area in to apoplexy when he traded to key regulars at the deadline, and then further provoked the critics by letting Adrian Beltre walk, signing Jeff Kent and giving a wagonload of cash to Derek Lowe.

He has thrown down the gauntlet. He thinks that J.D. Drew is a better bet than Beltre. He thinks that Derek Lowe can be a premier pitcher with outstanding infield defence behind him, and that Jeff Kent and Jose Valentin can provide that defence (and yes, there are sophisticated defensive stats that suggest that Kent is an elite second baseman, despite the drubbing his reputation took last year).

I don't claim to know whether or not he will be right. When Bill James coined the term sabermetrics years ago, he meant it to apply to the "science of baseball". All sciences need theories, to be either proven true or disproven. Whether or not Beane and DePodesta are right or wrong, they do come up with new ideas, and actually test them on the field. We can't help but learn more about how the game works, or doesn't work.

CA - David Ross - Ross served as Paul LoDuca's backup early in the season, then got extended playing time after the trade. He hit .170, which isn't getting it done. He's a second-string catcher in the Rod Barajas mold, will hit some home runs but won't do much else. He'll share time with another career second-stringer, Paul Bako.

The catcher of the near-future is Dioner Navarro, a fine young prospect who was traded twice during the winter, once for Randy Johnson and then again for Shawn Green.

1B - Hee Seop Choi - For four months, Choi did everything he is supposed to; he hit .270, drew a bunch of walks, and showed good power while playing in a tough home run park. Then he was traded to Los Angeles, and fell off of the face of the Earth. The Dodgers made some major changes during the winter but left Choi in place, showing confidence that he can still be the next Mike Epstein.

2B - Jeff Kent - When the season started, he had gotten off the bus at Cooperstown and was wandering around the neighbourhood. After a .289 average, 27 homers, 107 RBI and a game-winning shot in the NLCS, he's on the front lawn of the Hall of Fame; another good year, and he'll be knocking at the door.

3B - Jose Valentin/Norihiro Nakamura - At age 34, Valentin decided to stop switch-hitting, and bat only from the left side. The bad news is that the results were dismal; only a .191 average vs. southpaws. The good news is, his OPS against left-handers was still 300 points better than in 2003, so there was a tangible improvement.

Speaking of extreme splits, Valentin hit .254 with 18 homers before the break, only .167 with 12 homers in the second half. With the Dodgers, he will platoon at third base with Nakamura; the latter has been a star in Japan, but has struggled the past two years with injuries.

SS - Cesar Izturis - In his first three seasons, he was a catch-and-throw guy who was among the worst hitters in the league. Last year, at age 24, Izturis broke through with a solid year at the plate, and won his first Gold Glove.

He's either Omar Vizquel or Alfredo Griffin. The Dodgers are hoping for the former, but the latter is still a stronger possibility.

CF - Jayson Werth - I'm still not sure what to make of him. It was a breakthrough year, obviously, for Werth; in Toronto, his impressive athletic skills were very apparent, but he was never a good hitting prospect, and he really struggled in 2003 with both Toronto and Syracuse. The Jays traded him for bullpen depth. With the Dodgers, he hit for good power and kept his average over .260, giving hope that he can be something more than just a useful fourth outfielder.

But it was also a tough season for injuries. He suffered from a strained oblique muscle and then later a cracked rib, and late in the season a torn ligament in his throwing elbow was discovered. Werth is tall, strong, powerful and can run a bit. He has a very good throwing arm, which may be affected by the elbow injury. His plate discipline is weak but was improved. He's a good player, but with limited upside; Werth can hit 30 homers in a season, but I don't see him developing the areas of his game.

CF - Milton Bradley - His 2004 season didn't have too many positives; one was relative good health, and career highs in games played and at bats. The bad included four ejections and two suspensions, once for throwing a bad of balls onto the field, the second for throwing a plastic bottle at some fans. After the season, he was arrested for disorderly conduct over Thanksgiving.

His performance on the field was also disappointing. He was OK, but not good enough to justify keeping him on the roster if his behaviour becomes a distraction. The Dodgers have brought him back for his age 27 season, while Bradley has apparently sought help for anger management.

Truthfully, the bag of balls thing was really funny. It was a display of emotion that we rarely see on a ball diamond, and was not entirely unjustified. Unfortunately with Bradley, there is too much other stuff that is NOT funny to really applaud him.

RF - J.D. Drew - After a checkered career in St. Louis, Drew was dealt to the Braves, and reminded us why he was such a hot prospect in the late 90's. When in top form, as he was last season, Drew hits for average and power, has excellent plate discipline, is a good baserunner and a very good defensive outfielder.

Paul DePodesta drew some criticism when he chose to sign Drew rather than Adrian Beltre... but then, DePodesta draws criticism if he mixes dark shoes with light clothes. I see both players as even bets to win an MVP Award in 2005; both have been enigmas in the past, but both could be bargains if they stay in the lineup and play their best. I doubt that Drew's injuries will go away; he'll average 120 games a year, but can easily have one season where the stars align and he hits 45 home runs or something.

SP - Brad Penny - With the Marlins, he pitched the best ball of his career, and was among the better pitchers in the league, despite an 8-8 record. His strikeout rate was the best of his career, and for the first time he seemed to have really harnessed the potential of his formidable stuff.

Penny was dealt to the Dodgers in a controversial deal, and quickly suffered a biceps injury that turned out to be a bruised nerve. Apparently, the injury is so rare that no one really knows when or if he will be back to full strength; the prescribed treatment was rest and stretching.

Given that a healthy Penny is the Dodgers' best starting pitcher, that's a whole lotta' uncertainty entering the season.

SP - Odalis Perez - As is well-known, Perez had an incredible 18 no-decisions among his 31 starts. But he pitched quite well. His top ten list of Similarity Scores includes Tom Browning, Denny Neagle and Bobby Ojeda, three left-handers who had their best season at age 28. Perez will turn 28 this season.

SP - Jeff Weaver - He's a good pitcher and is healthy, but gets killed by left-handed hitters. He'll continue to be a solid #2-3 pitcher, needs to learn a changeup or screwball or something to get the southpaws out.

SP - Derek Lowe - A sinkerball who put lots of runners on base last year with walks, then didn't get the infield defence that he needed behind him with the Red Sox. The Dodgers signed him for four years, $36 million, which is an awful lot of money for a pitcher who is 32 years old and is coming off of a poor season. Still, it was his first real off year since his rookie season in 1997, plus he has Dodger Stadium and the Dodger defence working for him. I expect that Lowe will pitch well in 2005, but not like he did two years ago, and he is a poor bet to still be effective in the final year of his contract.

SP - Kaz Ishii - He's a terrible pitcher, with no hope of getting better. I'm sure that the Dodgers would love to give his innings to someone else - like, say, Edwin Jackson - but Penny's health troubles likely ensure that Ishii will get some innings.

SP - Edwin Jackson - Entering the season, he was considered by some to be the best pitching prospect in baseball. But he pitched poorly with the Dodgers, and fared no better at Las Vegas. Only 21 years old, was plagued last season by a forearm injury but hasn't gone under the knife. The Dodgers would love him to earn a spot in the rotation sometime during the summer.

RP - Wilson Alvarez - His second season with the Dodgers was solid, not as spectacular as the first. He was forced to carry a heavier workload, including 15 starts; he's much better out of the bullpen, but sometimes duty calls. Alvarez had a reverse platoon last season, hold