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From December 6, 2004: ODDS AND BOGGS
The sequel to OPENING THE DOORS, written 11 months later. Once again, the players of the 80's try to boost their numbers in the Hall of Fame.
From November 25, 2004: SITE UPDATE
If you have visited the site before, you know that I have chosen my own MVP and Cy Young Award winners for every season from 1901-2003 (2004 will be added sometime next year, as will, hopefully, 1890-1900). Though I keep the site updated during the season, I consider those pages the heart of the site. Even if I stopped writing tomorrow, those pages would still be there.
From November 15, 2004: FREE AGENTS EVERYWHERE
Free agent season has arrived, and every team has an opportunity to make some dramatic changes to its roster. By the time it's over, we'll be too busy with Christmas to notice... but by mid-January, enough will be enough and we'll start getting impatient for spring.
From October 29, 2004: KEITH FOULKE VS CARL MAYS?
For one day, I will celebrate the grand baseball tradition that is Red Sox baseball, and its long-awaited triumph. Tomorrow, I will go back to being a curmudgeonly Blue Jays fan who is starting to feel that eleven years is WAY too long to go between championships.
From October 21, 2004: LCS FALLOUT
One of the problems, of course, with doing a post-mortem on a team that hasn't yet been eliminated, is that there is the chance that they will come back and win. Even if it has never been done before in the history of Major League Baseball, there is that chance.
From October 20, 2004: LCS SHOCKER
The past three days and God Knows how many hours of playoff baseball have left me a little groggy and at a loss for words. So I'll just say a few nice things...
From October 17, 2004: LCS UPDATE
What to do now in Boston? This series with the Yankees has been a huge disaster; they are now faced with the choice of blowing up a disappointing team, or tinkering with a team that won 98 games during the season.
From October 9, 2004: LDS UPDATE
Curiously, my LDS picks, (Boston, Minnesota, St. Louis and Atlanta), will all wake up tomorrow morning in different situations. The Red Sox have already won, while the Twins are done for the year. The Cardinals lead their series 2-1, while the Braves are down 2-1.
From October 4, 2004: SEASON ROUNDUP
The regular season is finally over, and today (Monday) nothing is happening, remarkable since it looked very much like we would have at least one extra playoff game, maybe two or three. Everyone has started handing out their postseason hardware; I'll quickly do the same.
From September 24, 2004: BEWARE THE THIN AIR
Jeff Francis of the Colorado Rockies was named Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year. The Rockies now face an important decision: what to do with him?
From September 4, 2004: MAKING A CASE FOR THE UNIT
It's time to start talking seriously about Randy Johnson winning the National League Cy Young Award. I know; his won-loss record is only 12-12. But this is 2004; we've mapped the human genome and put robots on Mars. It's time to move on to a new era in Cy Young voting.
From August 10, 2004: GOOD LUCK, FRIEND
Carlos Tosca, the Blue Jays' manager, was fired after Sunday's game. The firing came after months of speculation about his future, and five straight losses, including three humiliating defeats at the hands of the New York Yankees.
From July 16, 2004: ALL-STAR AFTERMATH
The Giants scored four runs in the 9th to come back and beat the Rockies. With the Giants leading 5-4, Barry Bonds came up to the plate with the bases loaded. He struck out - but not before two runs scored on a wild pitch and a throwing error. Earlier in the game, Bonds was intentionally walked three times.
From July 3, 2004: MIDSEASON UPDATE
The home team here in Toronto just played its 80th game last night, meaning we're almost at the midpoint of the season. For me, the ball season usually goes by too quickly - but this year has been an exception. This has been a long, frustrating season for Blue Jay fans, and it's hard to believe there are still 82 games left. Maybe some good things well happen.
From June 28, 2004: MC-GRIFF-EY AND 500 HOMERS
Last year I wrote an article about the Hall Of Fame prospects of Rafael Palmeiro and Fred McGriff. I've decided to print it again, with some updates and modifications.
From June 20, 2004: BEST IN THE BUSINESS
By the time I started listening to Blue Jays radio on a regular basis in 1985, Tom Cheek had already been going strong for eight years, and had been joined in the booth by Jerry Howarth. Cheek's original partner was a man named Early Wynn, who I understand once pitched in the majors though I don't know much about his career. But it's been Tom and Jerry ever since I can remember... and there have been many, many, many, many hours of my life spent listening to them.
From May 19, 2004: BANG THE DRUM LOUDLY
I usually sit in the 500 level at the SkyDome, which is a long way from the field but the seats are cheap and you can sit where you want. Some rabid fans have begun bringing a drum to the games, and it is amazing how one simple instrument can completely change the atmosphere of the stadium.
From April 29, 2004: TALE OF TWO MANAGERS
The White Sox blew a four-run lead in the 9th inning on Opening Day. After the game, manager Ozzie Guillen told his players to go out and get drunk and forget about it.
From April 23, 2004: HIT THE BALL, GOOD THINGS MIGHT HAPPEN
Schilling began the 7th with two strikeouts; not good. But sure enough, Orlando Hudson hit a single that Gabe Kapler played into a triple; that was followed by a Chris Gomez bloop single that barely eluded Mark Bellhorn, then a bloop single to left by Howie Clark and a line drive single by Frank Catalanotto to tie the game.
From April 17, 2004: WHAT'S THE NAME OF THIS WEBSITE?
I missed last night's Cubs/Reds game, the 11-10 affair that the Cubs won in the ninth with a pair of home runs. Ramon Martinez doubled in the 7th inning, but was called out for batting out of turn. Apparently, Dusty Baker pulled a double switch, but the umpire didn't know it; one or the other was asleep at the switch. Dusty went berzerk and was ejected.
From April 8, 2004: THE FIRST THREE DAYS
After going out to the SkyDome and watching the Jays' brutal opening game on Monday, I wrote that things could only get better for the home team. It was a stupid thing to write, because things have, of course, gotten much worse. Three awful games, and a sweep at the hands of the Tigers.
From April 6, 2004: OPENING DAY
Another opening day is in the books. Up here in Toronto, a blast of arctic wind struck the city after about three weeks of rain; the SkyDome was closed, and though 99% of the time I prefer the roof open, I have to admit that the wind chill was pretty raw today.
From February 17, 2004: WHO'S ON THIRD?
It has been a frosty week up here in Toronto. The temperature took a steep dive a couple of days ago, the government is embroiled in a scandal in which it can't extract itself, the Leafs' star goaltender is injured, and the Blue Jays... well, nothing much has changed for them, except that the Yankees have acquired Alex Rodriguez.
From February 1, 2004: TOUGH SAVES
The previous NL closer to win the Cy Young Award was Mark Davis in 1989. That year, Davis saved 44 games, including 22 Tough Saves. I have always thought that that was a mind-boggling number, when you consider that today's closers only face a handful of "tough save" situations all year.
From January 14, 2004: YANKEE SOUTHPAWS
There is something odd about a Yankee team without a strong presence from the left side. After all, Yankee Stadium is a park built for left-handed hitters and pitchers. A Yankee left-hander, Whitey Ford, holds the record for consecutive scoreless innings pitched in the World Series. I might suggest that building a Yankee team without left-handed pitching is not only reckless, but perhaps un-American.
From January 1, 2004: OPENING THE DOORS
If Eckersley and Molitor are elected, that means that 27 players who were active in 1980 will be in the Hall of Fame. The players from 1980 still have a long way to go before they match the illustrious class of 1928; 55 active players from that season were later inducted into the Hall of Fame.
From December 6, 2004:
ODDS AND BOGGS
The 1980's has an inferiority complex. I grew up and became a fan of the game in that decade, so I have a soft spot for its players. The game was an exciting mix of power and speed (including some of the greatest base stealers in baseball history); there were some great playoffs, and the playing field was as level as it has ever been.
But there was a striking lack of greatness. There were no dynasties; no team won consecutive championships. There were great players, but none of the stature of a Willie Mays, Ted Williams, Barry Bonds or Babe Ruth. No one hit 50 home runs in a season. The hits leader was Willie Wilson, the wins leader was Jack Morris, and neither is going into the Hall of Fame.
Speaking of Cooperstown, the eligible BBWAA members are mailing in their ballots. It appears likely that one 80's star, Wade Boggs, will be elected; Ryne Sandberg may also have a shot on his second year on the ballot, or a reliever, probably Bruce Sutter.
Currently, there are 27 players who were active in 1980 who are in the Hall of Fame. The players from that season still have a long way to go before they match the illustrious class of 1928; 55 active players from that season were later inducted into the Hall of Fame. Some were voted in by the writers, but most were inducted by the Veterans Committee. More players from 1928 are in the Hall of Fame than from any other year.
Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Ty Cobb, Mel Ott, Tris Speaker, Pete Alexander, Rogers Hornsby, Lefty Grove, Paul Waner, Frankie Frisch, Eddie Collins, Charlie Gehringer, Bill Dickey, Mickey Cochrane, Jimmie Foxx, Al Simmons, Heinie Manush, Sam Rice, Goose Goslin, Joe Cronin, George Sisler, Ray Schalk, Ted Lyons, Red Faber, Harry Heilmann, Joe Sewell, Red Ruffing, Jim Bottomley, Chick Hafey, Rabbit Maranville, Jesse Haines, Bill Terry, Fred Lindstrom, Travis Jackson, Edd Rousch, Carl Hubbell, Gabby Hartnett, Hack Wilson, Kiki Cuyler, Lloyd Waner, Pie Traynor, Burleigh Grimes, George Kelly, Eppa Rixey, Dave Bancroft, Max Carey, Al Lopez, Dazzy Vance, Chuck Klein, Tony Lazzeri, Earle Combs, Herb Pennock, Waite Hoyt and Stan Coveleski were all active in 1928, and all are in the Hall of Fame.
(And that's just the players in the American and National Leagues; eleven more Hall of Famers were active in the Negro Leagues.
Satchel Paige, Oscar Charleston, Willie Wells, Turkey Stearnes, Cool Papa Bell, Judy Johnson, Martin Dihigo, Pop Lloyd, Bullet Joe Rogan, Smokey Joe Williams and Bill Foster were all active in 1928, bringing the total to 66.)
If I had a ballot this year, I would vote for Boggs, Sandberg, Goose Gossage, Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Dave Parker and Alan Trammell. I'm well aware that Parker and Trammell have no shot at getting elected, and things are looking grim each year for Blyleven, the Hawk and the Goose. If this were 1928, those five players would all be guaranteed of induction by the Veterans Committee, but that route now appears to be cut off.
But this is 2004, and the 1980's, which ended only 15 years ago, aren't getting much respect from the electors. There are a few more to go; looking into the future, I expect that Boggs, Rickey Henderson, Cal Ripken, Tony Gwynn, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Greg Maddux, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire, Tom Glavine, Roberto Alomar, Craig Biggio, Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr. and Sammy Sosa will all go in. I will also go out on a limb, and say that Pete Rose will get in eventually as well.
Players who might get elected include Gossage, Sutter, Dawson, Sandberg, Tim Raines, Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez, Gary Sheffield, John Smoltz and Juan Gonzalez. I could also include Blyleven, Dale Murphy and Jim Rice... but does anyone really think they are going to be elected? I don't think so, not unless they are able to lead a Tony Perez-type campaign in their favour.
Here are the probable totals for each season from the 1980's:
1980
# Players Currently Inducted: 27
Likely to be Inducted: Rose, Henderson
Possible Inductees: Gossage, Dawson, Sutter, Raines
Final Total: 29-33
1981
# Players Currently Inducted: 26
Likely to be Inducted: Rose, Henderson, Ripken
Possible Inductees: Gossage, Dawson, Sutter, Raines, Sandberg
Final Total: 29-34
1982
# Players Currently Inducted: 26
Likely to be Inducted: Rose, Henderson, Ripken, Gwynn, Boggs
Possible Inductees: Gossage, Dawson, Sutter, Raines, Sandberg
Final Total: 31-36
1983
# Players Currently Inducted: 24
Likely to be Inducted: Rose, , Henderson, Ripken, Gwynn, Boggs
Possible Inductees: Gossage, Dawson, Sutter, Raines, Sandberg
Final Total: 29-34
1984
# Players Currently Inducted: 22
Likely to be Inducted: Rose, Henderson, Ripken, Gwynn, Boggs, Clemens
Possible Inductees: Gossage, Dawson, Sutter, Raines, Sandberg
Final Total: 28-33
1985
# Players Currently Inducted: 21
Likely to be Inducted: Rose, Henderson, Ripken, Gwynn, Boggs, Clemens
Possible Inductees: Gossage, Dawson, Sutter, Raines, Sandberg
Final Total: 27-32
1986
# Players Currently Inducted: 17
Likely to be Inducted: Rose, Henderson, Ripken, Gwynn, Boggs, Clemens, Bonds, Maddux, Palmeiro, McGwire
Possible Inductees: Gossage, Dawson, Sutter, Raines, Sandberg, McGriff
Final Total: 26-32
1987
# Players Currently Inducted: 15
Likely to be Inducted: Henderson, Ripken, Gwynn, Boggs, Clemens, Bonds, Maddux, Palmeiro, McGwire, Glavine
Possible Inductees: Gossage, Dawson, Raines, Sandberg, McGriff, Martinez
Final Total: 25-31
1988
# Players Currently Inducted: 13
Likely to be Inducted: Henderson, Ripken, Gwynn, Boggs, Clemens, Bonds, Maddux, Palmeiro, McGwire, Glavine, Alomar, Biggio, Johnson
Possible Inductees: Gossage, Dawson, Raines, Sandberg, McGriff, Martinez, Sutter, Sheffield, Smoltz
Final Total: 26-35
1989
# Players Currently Inducted: 11
Likely to be Inducted: Henderson, Ripken, Gwynn, Boggs, Clemens, Bonds, Maddux, Palmeiro, McGwire, Glavine, Alomar, Biggio, Johnson
Possible Inductees: Gossage, Dawson, Raines, Sandberg, McGriff, Martinez, Sheffield, Smoltz
Final Total: 24-32
There is no season from the 1980's that is guaranteed to have at least 30 representatives in the Hall of Fame, and it is extremely unlikely that any season will approach 35. Compare those numbers to decades past:
1900's High: 34 (1904-05, 1907) Low: 28 (1900)
1910's High: 39 (1915, 1916) Low: 27 (1911)
1920's High: 55 (1928) Low: 34 (1920-21)
1930's High: 54 (1930) Low: 37 (1938-39)
1940's High: 38 (1941) Low: 28 (1946, 1949) (not counting war years)
1950's High: 37 (1956) Low: 28 (1950)
1960's High: 38 (1965, 1968) Low: 32 (1960)
1970's High: 36 (1970-71) Low: 28 (1977)
1980's High: 27 (1980) Low: 11 (1989)
(These stats all came from Bill James' book Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame, updated where necessary)
As you can see, there are a huge number of players from the 1920's and 1930's in the Hall of Fame. It was a travesty that so many players from that era were elected, but what's done is done. I would be the last person to suggest that 66 players from 1980 should go into the Hall. But don't worry; so far, only 27 are in, and it doesn't look as if there will be many more.
Due to expansion, there are almost twice as many players in the game today as there were in 1960. There should be more great players in the game as well; baseball players are recruited from a far greater population base today than ever before. Yet, while the number of players goes up, the number who go into the Hall is going steadily downwards.
You might want to argue that the players in the 1980's weren't as great as in other decades. I will concede that there was no Willie Mays or Barry Bonds; but there were a lot of players whose skills were unique to that decade. There has never been another Ryne Sandberg, a Gold Glove second baseman who could steal 50 bases in one season, hit 40 homers in another.
No players in baseball history could dominate the basepaths like Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines. Ripken, Yount and Trammell redefined the shortstop position by hitting for power and playing good defense. Gossage and Sutter redefined the closer's role, as did Eckersley. When they retired, Nolan Ryan, Steve Carlton and Bert Blyleven were the three greatest strikeout pitchers ever.
Even if my imaginary ballot become reality, and eight players were elected this year, no season from the 1980's would have even 40 active players in the Hall; the most would probably be 38, from 1982. Only by opening the floodgates and letting in a large group of players, with the 1980's achieve equal representation in Cooperstown with past decades.
Of course, the Veterans Committee could always have its rules changed in the future, making it easier for the Dawson's and Blyleven's to get in. But why wait? There is no chance of the 1980's being overrepresented in the Hall of Fame, so let's let a few more guys in.
Anyways, here's how I would group this year's candidates:
THE CREAM OF THE CROP
- Wade Boggs - 3010 hits, lifetime .328 batting average, .415 on-base percentage.
- Bert Blyleven - fifth all-time in strikeouts, won 287 games. His career ERA and winning percentage aren't spectacular, but they're both better than Nolan Ryan's.
- Goose Gossage - the greatest relief pitcher ever. Have you checked out his 1977 season lately?
- Ryne Sandberg - apart from hitting more home runs than any other second baseman, winning nine Gold Gloves, winning an MVP Award, leading the Cubs to the playoffs for the first time in 40 years... he wasn't all that impressive.
THE BEST OF THE REST
- Dave Concepcion - a guy whose candidancy I have taken more seriously of late. A decent hitter, and a great defensive player. Revolutionized the position with his play on artificial turf.
- Andre Dawson - outstanding power and speed, and a great defensive player. A long career, and one of the most popular and admired players in the game.
- Keith Hernandez - borderline candidate, needed to last a little longer to give him a chance.
- Tommy John - won 288 games, had surgical procedure named after him.
- Dennis Martinez - the midsection of his career is missing, but the first part was good, and the last part was way good. 245 career wins.
- Don Mattingly - finished as a great player at age 28, but still an awesome personality.
- Dale Murphy - a great player from 1982-87; 398 homers, Gold Glove centre fielder. Didn't age well.
- Dave Parker - the best player in baseball 1977-79. 2712 hits, 339 homers. Won an MVP Award; five times finished among the Top Five in MVP voting. In 1977, had 26 outfield assists, including nine double plays. A drug problem killed his chances of election.
- Jim Rice - didn't do much except hit, but he could hit.
- Bruce Sutter - a great pitcher for seven years. Have you checked out his 1977 season lately?
- Alan Trammell - great player with both bat and glove. World Series MVP in 1984, the league's best player in 1987.
NOT GREAT, BUT YOU WERE PRETTY DARN GOOD
- Chili Davis - the DH gave him a second wind. Has impressive career totals, including 350 home runs.
- Steve Garvey - I have no idea why he didn't follow up on his political aspirations. He was perfectly qualified.
- Jack Morris - 80's win leader.
- Lee Smith - all-time saves leader.
- Darryl Strawberry - a great player whose career was ruined by drugs and alcohol.
THANKS FOR THE MEMORIES (from a Blue Jay fan)
- Otis Nixon - a guy who could run, and later in his career learned to hit a little
- Tom Candiotti - see you in 2005, Tom
WHY HAVEN'T YOU BEEN ELECTED ALREADY????
MISSING FROM THE BALLOT
- Ted Simmons - apparently, he played in an era when there was little appreciation for a player who hit for average, hit for power, drove in runs, and played 2000 games behind the plate.
- Lou Whitaker - Lou, what happened to the Tigers after you retired?
- Dwight Evans - at some point, it would be nice if the writers would recognize that Evans was a better player than Rice.
ONE YEAR ONLY
- Jim Abbott
- Mark Langston
- Jack McDowell
- Willie McGee
- Jeff Montgomery
- Tony Phillips
- Terry Steinbach
From November 25, 2004:
SITE UPDATE
Hi! Thanks for visiting my baseball site in the last week of November. I live in Toronto, where we have just had our first blast of winter weather. There is no hockey this year, of course, and the Canadian Football season just ended, so all we have is basketball, and news of the latest Kris Benson/Damian Miller signing.
I have nothing to add today except a site update. If you have visited the site before, you know that I have chosen my own MVP and Cy Young Award winners for every season from 1901-2003 (2004 will be added sometime next year, as will, hopefully, 1890-1900). Though I keep the site updated during the season, I consider those pages the heart of the site. Even if I stopped writing tomorrow, those pages would still be there.
They are a constant work in progress; I have just completed expanded biographical comments on Frank Robinson, Ken Singleton and Bob Elliott which, I hope, are much better than what existed before. I have also created my own awards; I've been online for 4 ½ years, so I figure it is time. I don't vote, of course, for the actual BBWAA Awards, plus my eligiblity rules for the MVP Award, and also my criteria for what an MVP is, differ a fair bit from those used by the BBWAA.
So I have created the Stargell Award, my version of baseball's MVP, and the Mathewson Award, my version of the Cy Young. I chose Willie Stargell and Christy Mathewson because they were great players and great baseball people; I hope no one minds that I gave the 1995 American League Stargell Award to Albert Belle, who as a person is nothing like Willie, but with the bat they were both bruisers.
From November 15, 2004:
FREE AGENTS EVERYWHERE
It is mid-November, a time when most baseball fans, I think, are still worn out from the long season and three rounds of playoffs. Right now, we're just going through the motions, mildly debating the Gold Glove choices or the future of instant reply but not really caring all that much. Two MVP Awards will be handed out this week, and I think that will be it for 2004.
But it's just about now that we start to get our batteries recharged. Free agent season has arrived, and every team has an opportunity to make some dramatic changes to its roster. By the time it's over, we'll be too busy with Christmas to notice... but by mid-January, enough will be enough and we'll start getting impatient for spring.
Especially here in Toronto, where in mid-January it's cold and there's no hockey and the Jays desperately need a new look from what they had last year.
(ADDENDUM: So far, in the early days of the free agent frenzy, a total of $47.25 million has been parcelled out to Omar Vizquel, Cristian Guzman, Vinny Castilla and Troy Percival. Apparently, the downward trend in player salaries is OVER.)
Once again, here's ESPN's annual list of the Top 50 Free Agents:
1. CARLOS BELTRAN - is the best player available, though I'm guessing that he will be overpaid. Vlad Guerrero signed for $70 million over five years last year; Bobby Abreu signed for $64 million over five years in 2002. Beltran isn't better than Vlad or Abreu, but he's going to make a lot more money.
2. ADRIAN BELTRE - could be a bargain or could be overpaid. His season was so unique that I can't even begin to put a dollar value on him. It's really hard to say in which direction his career will go.
3. ROGER CLEMENS - I'm not sure if he should even be on this list. Apart from his age, it seems likely that he will either (a) retire, or (b) sign one-year deals in perpetuity with the Astros.
4. EDGAR RENTERIA - is rated a little high for a guy coming off a bit of a crappy season (by his own standards). Still, he was great in 2003, and is only 29.
5. PEDRO MARTINEZ - The best pitcher on the market, still one of the top ten in baseball.
6. CARLOS DELGADO - just killed opposing pitchers over the last two months of the season, erasing fears that his bat might be slowing down. A great hitter and a terrific person, but he has... issues... that no other player has.
7. MAGGLIO ORDONEZ - played only 52 games last season, then had surgery on his knee. With Glaus and Sexson forms a trio of right-handed power hitters who missed much of the season with injury, and are question marks entering next season.
8. JASON VARITEK - has been terrific the past two seasons. He's also a 33-year-old catcher, which should give some pause but won't; he'll get what he asks for.
9. CARL PAVANO - had a fine season, but I don't think he will get better. He's pretty much where Brad Radke was five years ago, and Radke had to survive a rough transition to become the pitcher he is now.
10. RICHIE SEXSON - tore the labrum in his left shoulder and missed much of the season. Has tremendous power... but then, so did Shawn Green before he tore the labrum in his shoulder.
11. J.D. DREW - is the opposite of Magglio Ordonez, a guy with no history of consistency or durability, but who is coming off of the year of his life. Only 29 years old, has always been a great talent; should sign a 2-year deal with the Braves, stay in his comfort zone and then cash in in 2007.
12. NOMAR GARCIAPARRA - Given his injuries, his declining production and his sucky defence at short... there is certainly a place for him on a ballclub, but I'm not sure where. Or for how much money.
13. TROY GLAUS - had surgery on his throwing shoulder, missed most of the year but came back and was a factor in September. I'd like him to be my first baseman or DH, but if he insists on playing third base I'll take a pass.
14. ARMANDO BENITEZ - had the best season of his career - and also the first one in which he averaged less than a strikeout per inning. Carries some baggage with him, but he is by far the best closer on the market - and teams will remember the effect that Keith Foulke had on the Sox.
15. STEVE FINLEY - set a career high in home runs at age 39. Every other facet of his game is slowly declining... but he's a quality player, and he's in great shape. Turning 40 isn't as scary as it used to be for professional ballplayers... except for the whole prostate enlargement thing.
16. TROY PERCIVAL - had a good year, but can only throw one inning, is 35 years old, has had injuries, and can't blow his fastball by hitters anymore. So, how desperate are you for a closer?
17. MATT CLEMENT - had his best season, despite the losing record. Apart from Rocket and Pedro, the only starter on this list who has a chance, even if it's a small one, of winning a Cy Young Award.
18. ORLANDO CABRERA - hit two extremes last season. He can't play worse than he did for Montreal, nor can he play better than he did for Boston. He's riding high after the Sox' championship, but I'd much rather have Placido Polanco.
19. JEFF KENT - has his warts. He'll be 37, he's not a good defensive second baseman any more, he hits into a lot of double plays, and his on-base percentage has dropped in four straight seasons. But he has remained remarkably productive as he has aged, and his game-winning bomb in Game Five of the NLCS made a persuasive argument that there is still a place for him on a club.
20. MOISES ALOU - is a pain in the ass. He might give you 30 home runs and 100 RBI, but he's 38 years old, is a horrible baserunner and defensive player, and shouldn't open his mouth except to eat or breathe. I would pass.
21. ODALIS PEREZ - is getting old, fast. He hasn't come close to approaching his 2002 season; I'd be wary of him without the Dodgers' defenders backing him up.
22. JARET WRIGHT - had an amazing comeback season, the first time he had pitched well since 1998. He had, of course, catastrophic injuries to his shoulder, including a torn labrum and a frayed rotator cuff, so anyone paying for his services should be wary. But if there are any lingering weaknesses in his shoulder, they didn't show up in the stats; he got getter as the season wore on.
23. JERMAINE DYE - had a great year at age 26, but his prime years (27-30) have been pretty crappy. Still, he's only 31, he still has some power, and I presume that he won't be making $12 million again this year so he might be a decent pickup for someone.
24. BRAD RADKE - isn't getting much love. He is ridiculously better than the six guys ahead of him.
25. OMAR VIZQUEL - shrugged off a failed physical and had a nice season at age 37, the best of any shortstop on this list. Question is, how much do you want to pay for a player of his age and with his injury history... oh, never mind, the Giants gave him $12.25 million.
26. RUSS ORTIZ - struggled with his control more than usual; pitched badly in the last two months and was awful in his only postseason appearance. Pay him for the 12 wins he will give you in 2005, not for his 21 wins in 2003.
27. MATT MORRIS - pitched pretty badly for the first time in his career. Everyone is entitled to an off-year, but Morris bears a frightening resemblence to Pete Vuckovich at the same age.
28. VINNY CASTILLA - is #28? Well, he led the league in RBI... but I think that he is of no use to anyone except the Rockies. A GM would have to be on a powerful hallucinogen to take Castilla ahead of Corey Koskie.
29. PLACIDO POLANCO - is the best defensive second baseman and possibly the best defensive third baseman on this list. And he hits more than a little.
30. ERIC MILTON - ESPN predicts that he will sign with the Yankees. The theory being, I guess, that he is a proven winner when he receives 6.5 runs per game in support, and there is a good chance the Yankees will give him that. If you thought that Jarrod Washburn vs. David Ortiz was a mismatch...
31. JON LIEBER - missed a season after having Tommy John surgery, but came back and gave the Yankees everything they needed; he took his regular turn in the rotation, and threw nothing but strikes. Will be 35 years old, but if healthy will survive a few more years.
32. COREY KOSKIE - is a fine hitter and a good player, but his playing time has dropped three straight seasons. A strained sternum, an injured wrist and an ankle strain felled him in 2004. But if you need a third baseman, he's your guy; he's way better than Castilla or Batista, and less brittle than Glaus.
33. DAVID WELLS - Keep on truckin'.
34. DEREK LOWE - was hurt by his defence, as most people know. But he was also hurt by his own poor control. I might be interested in him, if I had confidence in my infield defence, but I wouldn't give him more than a one-year contract, to give him a chance to prove that he can throw strikes.
35. RICHARD HIDALGO - had a horrible season, the worst in a career that had already had a couple of stinkers. But he's also had a couple of great seasons, so... at worst, I guess he is a better option than Raul Mondesi.
36. KRIS BENSON - had his best season since before the surgery, and appears to be almost back to being a quality pitcher. He pitched brilliantly in his second month with the Mets (2.25 ERA, 25/2 K/BB ratio) so maybe they saw something and fixed it. Which would be real funny if he signed with another team.
37. JEROMY BURNITZ - can still hit a fastball. In the light air, he muscled up and hit 37 homers, along with the highest batting average of his career. 36 years old, obviously won't have the same success with another team.
38. KEVIN MILLWOOD - was rated #6 a year ago, too high, but here he's rated too low. He actually pitched about as well as he did in 2003, but his season was interrupted by elbow tendinitis. An above-average pitcher who should make 25-30 starts; will always have a wonky elbow, but definitely still capable of winning 15 games. Why would you rather have Eric Milton?
39. CRISTIAN GUZMAN - must be the oldest 27-year-old in the league. Can't hit or field, has no skills that make him attractive off of the bench. I'm not sure what his selling point is.
40. TONY BATISTA - "Quietly put together a great offensive season" according to the ESPN folks. Well, he was probably the worst player in baseball the first half of the season; he went on a power tear in the second half but overall his numbers were pretty crappy (and the less said, the better). I'm not sure how ESPN found 10 free agents with less value than Tony, but I guess we'll see...
41. JOSE VALENTIN - was the opposite of Batista. He was put up his usual numbers before the break (.254 average, 18 home runs) but was horrible in the second half (.167 average). Still can't hit left-handers at all. If used wisely, can be a valuable utiltiy player.
42. BOB WICKMAN - The Bull Moose returned after missing 1 ½ seasons and pitched decently. Will fill a minor role in someone's bullpen, or could still close for someone who's really desperate.
43. ESTEBAN LOAIZA - is an enigma. He had a wretched season, and at the end of September was perhaps the most detested man in New York. But during the catastrophic collapse against Boston, he was the only Yankee pitcher who could throw worth a damn, and perhaps won back some respect. In hindsight, Joe Torre should have pulled a Connie Mack and started Loaiza in Game Seven, and sat Kevin F. Brown's ass on the bench.
44. ORLANDO HERNANDEZ - pitched brilliantly for three months, then broke down at the end of the season and missed the playoffs. You can't count on him, but he's a real original, and a joy to watch.
45. JUAN GONZALEZ - suffered a lower back injury in May, was day-to-day... then went on the 15-day DL... then went on the 60-day DL and never came back. Will sign with somebody and hit some moonshots in batting practice... but like Jose Canseco, has an odour of "doneness" about him.
46. PAUL WILSON - is the most consistent pitcher in baseball. Every year, he's a little below average. Last year, he got lucky and began the season 7-0 before reality set in (but he still finished with his first winning season! Congrats). With normal luck, would post a 10-12 record every year.
47. TONY WOMACK - gave the Cardinals everything he had. He was inserted into the leadoff role at the beginning of the season, and gave LaRussa a nice Rudy Law-type season, which I guess is OK if Rickey Henderson isn't available.
48. JOSE LIMA - is an original, and had a fine comeback season, including a brilliant start in the playoffs. But no one wants to touch him except the Dodgers.
49. PAUL BYRD - Despite his low ranking from ESPN, Byrd is one of the few pitchers on this list whom I would actually want. Great control, may not be healthy but worth a risk.
50. STEVE KLINE - gives you 50 quality innings a season.
If you're curious, the top ten from ESPN's list last season were:
1. Vladimir Guerrero
2. Bartolo Colon
3. Miguel Tejada
4. Gary Sheffield
5. Ivan Rodriguez
6. Kevin Millwood
7. Keith Foulke
8. Andy Pettitte
9. Kaz Matsui
10. Javy Lopez
Obviously, the best ones were Vladdy, Tejada, Sheffield, Pudge and Foulke. Millwood and Pettitte were hurt, but Colon was a big disappointment. Little Matsui fell short of expectations... but I have no idea whether those expectations were realistic or not.
As for the bargains on last year's list... well, there weren't many. Jose Mesa (#50), David Wells (#37) and Tom Gordon (#27), I guess, but otherwise No's 25-50 didn't pan out too well. Juan Gonzalez, Jose Cruz Jr. Raul Mondesi, Rod Beck, Fernando Vina, Curt Leskanic, Roberto Alomar, etc. The only "What The Hell?" choice was Maels Rodriguez (#28).
From October 29, 2004:
KEITH FOULKE VS CARL MAYS?
For one day, I will celebrate the grand baseball tradition that is Red Sox baseball, and its long-awaited triumph. Tomorrow, I will go back to being a curmudgeonly Blue Jays fan who is starting to feel that eleven years is WAY too long to go between championships.
Some thoughts about this very brief and one-sided World Series:
* * * * *
I can't say that I was terribly impressed by Terry Francona as a manager during the season. But he obviously needs to be reassessed now that the Sox have won the championship. The doctors who stitched Curt Schilling's heel back together probably deserve as much credit as Francona, but to be fair, three things impressed me about Terry:
1) Publicly, he was loose and calm even after the disaster of Game Three against the Yankees. No one yelled at Dale Sveum in the dugout. From what we hear, the same was true privately.
2) Pinch running. He picked the right time to bring Dave Roberts into the game; he also resisted the temptation to take David Ortiz out of the game, a mistake that cost Ron Gardenhire dearly.
3) In Game Six, the umpires reversed two calls in his favour. Now, this may have nothing to do with Francona... but I watched around 140 baseball games this year and I don't remember a single call that was reversed in any of them. Whatever Francona was saying, it worked.
On the other hand, Francona overmanaged his bullpen, as he did all year. If Keith Foulke's arm doesn't fall off next season then he must be one hell of a durable pitcher.
* * * * *
With the Curse broken, many people have been quick to point out that there never was a curse. Of course there wasn't, in a mystical sense; the "Curse", as we know it, was a long series of misfortunes for the Sox organization, some of which they were responsible for, others they weren't.
The two general problems were:
1) Playing in the same league, and then the same division, as the Yankees, baseball's greatest kick-ass team
2) Playing in Fenway Park, which for 45 years badly distorted run scoring, and left Red Sox management unable to properly assess their needs and strengths. It's still a hitters' park, but structural changes in the 1970's have dampened the effect.
More specific problems were:
1) Ownership. Specifically, the Harry Frazee-Robert Quinn years. We all know that Frazee sold Babe Ruth to the Yankees so that he could finance a theatrical show, but the entire roster was gutted in the 1920's, leaving behind a pathetic team for 15 years. In addition to Ruth, ace pitchers Carl Mays and Herb Pennock also wound up with New York.
Frazee sold the team in 1923, purchased by a group of investors led by Robert Quinn. But things didn't improve. From 1925-32, they had five seasons with more than 100 losses. Quinn went broke. Finally, in 1933, Tom Yawkey bought the team, and they got back onto the road to respectability.
2) War. After their recovery in the late 1930's, the Sox assembled one of the greatest young teams in baseball history. In 1942, they won 93 games, their best total since the glory years. The core group of stars (Ted Williams, Bobby Doerr, Dom DiMaggio, Johnny Pesky) were all between 22 and 25 years old.
Williams, Pesky and DiMaggio spent the next three seasons in the military. Doerr joined them in 1945. They all came back and won the pennant in 1946, losing the World Series in seven games. They slipped a bit in '47, then in 1948 finished in a first-place tie with Cleveland, and lost a one-game playoff.
Then came the Casey Stengel juggernaut in New York. But the Sox were competitive; in 1949, they finished one game behind the Bombers. In 1950, Ted Williams broke his arm in the All-Star game, and missed the second half of the season; the Sox finished four games back. They began to fade, and in 1952 Williams left for Korea.
3) Racism. The Red Sox did not field their first black player until 1959; they were the last team to integrate. A year later, Ted Williams retired. They never finished higher than third after he returned from Korea.
The team went from bad to worse. They lost 100 games in 1965. In 1966, fans stopped showing up to Fenway Park; the only AL teams with worse attendance than the Sox that year were (gulp) the Kansas City Athletics and the Washington Senators.
Then, of course, came the Impossible Dream in 1967 that took them to the 7th game of the World Series, and laid the foundations for what is now known as Red Sox Nation (a story that's been covered in much more detail elsewhere). That team never repeated, but the fans have never left. On the field, the Sox were hurt by the horrific beaning of Tony Conigliaro, and a Jim Lonborg skiing accident; they also had to deal with the rise of Earl Weaver's awesome Orioles.
They returned to the Series in 1975, again falling in seven games to a superior Reds team. Then came the first two decades of the free agency era, the greatest era of parity in baseball history. The Yankees were great for a couple of years, as were the Orioles, and the Brewers, and the Tigers, and the Royals, and the Red Sox, and the Twins, and the Athletics, and the Blue Jays, and, well, you get the idea. The Sox did just about as well as anybody else, getting within one strike of winning the Series in 1986 before the roof fell in.
* * * * *
As I have written earlier, I can't stand the FOX television broadcasts of playoff baseball. I'm sure there was lots to complain about in this series, but I watched the MLB International feed instead. I'm not a great Rick Sutcliffe fan and it took them awhile to show some replays, but overall the trimmed-down production was still 1000% better than FOX. And there were no interviews with anybody named Leon.
* * * * *
Was this the greatest Red Sox team ever? That claim was tossed around on Wednesday night. Problem is, the other five Boston champions all played before 1920, and it's tough to compare eras. Anyways, here's a start. I've listed the lineups for eight outstanding Sox teams, with their respective OPS+ and ERA+. I'm not even going to pretend that this is an adequate statistical analysis, I'm just throwing some names out. A more thorough comparison will have to wait for another day.
| 2004 | 1986 |
| | PLAYER | OPS+ | | PLAYER | OPS+ |
| CA | Varitek/Mirabelli | 121/124 | CA | Gedman | 100 |
| 1B | Millar | 117 | 1B | Buckner | 98 |
| 2B | Bellhorn | 107 | 2B | Barrett | 100 |
| 3B | Mueller/Youkilis | 106/99 | 3B | Boggs | 157 |
| SS | Reese/Cabrera/Nomar | 46/97/118 | SS | Romero/Quinones/Owen | 51/79/44 |
| LF | Ramirez | 152 | LF | Rice | 137 |
| CF | Damon | 117 | CF | Armas/Henderson | 93/46 |
| RF | Kapler/Nixon | 77/123 | RF | Evans | 131 |
| DH | Cookie Monster | 145 | DH | Baylor | 112 |
| | PITCHER | ERA+ | | PITCHER | ERA+ |
| SP | Schilling | 150 | SP | Rocket | 169 |
| SP | Martinez | 125 | SP | Hurst | 140 |
| SP | Arroyo | 121 | SP | Oil Can | 111 |
| SP | Wakefield | 100 | SP | Nipper | 78 |
| SP | Lowe | 90 | SP | Seaver | 110 |
| RP | Foulke | 225 | RP | Schiraldi | 297 |
The 2004 team was better offensively than the 1986 team at every position except third base and right field. Defensively... neither team was blessed; Damon was almost certainly the best outfielder on either team.
Both teams tried out three different shortstops. The 2004 team eventually got things right.
The 1986 team had three top starters as good or better than the 2004 team, though Tim Wakefield outpitched fellow knuckler Al Nipper. Tom Seaver made the final 16 starts of his career for the Red Sox, and pitched well, but an ankle injury prevented him from pitching in the playoffs. Too bad he didn't have Curt Schilling's doctor.
Calvin Schiraldi pitched 50 magical innings during the regular season, and that's all I have to say about that.
| 1975 | 1967 |
| | PLAYER | OPS+ | | PLAYER | OPS+ |
| CA | Fisk/Blackwell/Montgomery | 150/53/52 | CA | Ryan/Gibson/Howard | 57/55/18 |
| 1B | Yaz | 112 | 1B | Scott | 139 |
| 2B | Griffin/Doyle | 54/109 | 2B | Andrews | 101 |
| 3B | Petrocelli/Heise | 76/33 | 3B | Foy | 114 |
| SS | Burleson | 73 | SS | Petrocelli | 114 |
| LF | Rice/Carbo | 128/143 | LF | Yaz | 195 |
| CF | Lynn | 162 | CF | Smith | 101 |
| RF | Evans | 120 | RF | Conigliaro/Tartabull | 143/53 |
| DH | Rice/Cooper | 128/143 | DH | None |
| | PITCHER | ERA+ | | PITCHER | ERA+ |
| SP | Tiant | 102 | SP | Lonborg | 110 |
| SP | Wise | 104 | SP | Bell | 111 |
| SP | Spaceman | 104 | SP | Stange | 126 |
| SP | Cleveland | 92 | SP | Brandon | 84 |
| SP | Moret | 114 | SP | Santiago | 97 |
| RP | Drago | 107 | RP | Wyatt | 134 |
1975:
Carlton Fisk broke his forearm in spring training; his replacements, Blackwell and Montgomery, were hopeless, but Pudge played like an MVP after he returned in June.
The Sox led the league in runs scored by a fairly wide margin, despite some weaknesses at third and short (where Rick Burleson was a very good defensive shortstop). Denny Doyle was a valuable midseason pickup.
Yastrzemski, Rice and Evans were all solid; Lynn was tremendous, and the Sox got outstanding production from a pair of lefties, Bernie Carbo and Cecil Cooper, in platoon roles.
The starting rotation was about average, which was all it needed to be.
1967:
The catchers could not hit at all, but the rest of the infield was solid.
Yastrzemski, the MVP and Triple Crown winner, was unbelievable. (.326 average, 44 homers, 121 RBI, 112 runs scored). Yastrzemski's statistics, at face value, are better than Manny Ramirez' 2004 numbers - and that's not even taking into account the difference between 1967 and 2004.
Reggie Smith was a solid rookie. Conigliaro was great before he was beaned in the head; his replacement, Jose Tartabull, struggled mightily.
The Sox led the league in runs scored, and also gave up a bunch of runs. Even accounting for Fenway Park, they won with their bats. Lonborg wasn't a great pitcher, but he was durable; his 273 innings led the staff by a wide margin.
John Wyatt and Sparky Lyle both provided very good bullpen support for a patchwork starting rotation.
| 1949 | 1946 |
| | PLAYER | OPS+ | | PLAYER | OPS+ |
| CA | Tebbetts/Batts | 84/85 | CA | Wagner/Partee | 85/114 |
| 1B | Goodman | 92 | 1B | York | 120 |
| 2B | Doerr | 128 | 2B | Doerr | 116 |
| 3B | Pesky | 104 | 3B | Russell/Higgins | 53/98 |
| SS | Stephens | 138 | SS | Pesky | 126 |
| LF | Williams | 192 | LF | Williams | 215 |
| CF | DiMaggio | 112 | CF | DiMaggio | 123 |
| RF | Zarilla/O'Brien | 99/73 | RF | Metkovich/Moses | 88/64 |
| | PITCHER | ERA+ | | PITCHER | ERA+ |
| SP | Parnell | 157 | SP | Ferriss | 113 |
| SP | Kinder | 130 | SP | Hughson | 134 |
| SP | Dobson | 113 | SP | Harris | 101 |
| SP | Stobbs | 108 | SP | Dobson | 114 |
| SP | Kramer | 85 | SP | Bagby | 99 |
| RP | Hughson | 82 | RP | Klinger | 155 |
1949:
The Sox had things backwards. Their first baseman, Billy Goodman, was a singles hitter who could hit .300 with some walks, but had no power. Their shortstop, Junior Stephens, had 39 home runs and 159 RBI.
Ted Williams hit .343 with 43 home runs, 159 RBI, 150 runs scored and 162 walks.
Tex Hughson, who won 20 games three years earlier, was in the bullpen. Their other 20-game winner from 1946, Boo Ferriss, was done. But after just three seasons, the Sox were able to find two new 20-game winners: Mel Parnell (25-7) and Ellis Kinder (23-6).
Joe Dobson was invaluable as the #3 man, as he had been in 1946.
1946:
More Ted Williams: a .342 average, 38 homers, 123 RBI, 142 runs scored, 156 walks.
Doug Mientkiewicz and Kevin Millar, meet Catfish Metkovich and Wally Moses.
| 1915 | 1912 |
| | PLAYER | OPS+ | | PLAYER | OPS+ |
| CA | Thomas/Cady | 76/109 | CA | Carrigan/Cady | 84/98 |
| 1B | Hoblitzel/Gainer | 127/138 | 1B | Stahl/Bradley | 124/63 |
| 2B | Wagner/Barry | 92/104 | 2B | Yerkes | 76 |
| 3B | Gardner | 98 | 3B | Gardner | 133 |
| SS | Scott/Janvrin | 42/88 | SS | Wagner | 101 |
| LF | Lewis | 121 | LF | Lewis | 111 |
| CF | Speaker | 151 | CF | Speaker | 188 |
| RF | Hooper | 103 | RF | Hooper | 83 |
| | PITCHER | ERA+ | | PITCHER | ERA+ |
| SP | Shore | 170 | SP | Smokey Joe | 180 |
| SP | Foster | 132 | SP | O'Brien | 133 |
| SP | Ruth | 114 | SP | Bedient | 118 |
| SP | Leonard | 118 | SP | Collins | 136 |
| SP | Wood | 187 | SP | Hall | 114 |
| RP | Mays | 107 | RP | Pape | 69 |
1915:
Harry Hooper, oddly, had two of his worst seasons in 1912 and 1915, when the team was at its best.
Four very good starters, including a 20-year-old Babe Ruth, AND Smokey Joe Wood as a great #5 guy who made 16 starts, AND rookie Carl Mays in the bullpen? This was a good staff.
The Babe batted 92 times; he hit .315 with 10 doubles, four homers, 21 RBI, and a .576 slugging percentage.
1912:
Speaker hit .383 with 222 hits, 53 doubles, 136 runs scored, 90 RBI, 56 stolen bases. Probably his best season in a Boston uniform, if not his career.
Any time you have "H Wagner" at shortstop, you have to smile... but this was Heinie, not Honus. Still, Heinie was a good player.
Freakin' Smokey Joe Wood was 34-5 with a 1.91 ERA in 344 innings. He had a 19-game win streak during the season. And oh yeah, the other four guys were pretty good as well. The bullpen didn't get much use.
So, was this year's team the best? Tough call; I sure as heck wouldn't want to face Smokey Joe Wood in a short series. And even though the 1949 team was beaten by the Yankees, it might have beaten all the others. And this year's team had as much depth as any of them.
If forced to choose, I would take the 1915 team. Tris Speaker AND Babe Ruth? Not to mention Dutch Leonard, Ernie Shore, Rube Foster, Smokey Joe Wood, Harry Hooper, Duffy Lewis, Carl Mays (and a very young Herb Pennock)? That was one heck of a talented team.
From October 21, 2004:
LCS FALLOUT
One of the problems, of course, with doing a post-mortem on a team that hasn't yet been eliminated, is that there is the chance that they will come back and win. Even if it has never been done before in the history of Major League Baseball, there is that chance.
I was thinking about reprinting the paragraphs I wrote on the 17th, word-for-word, but with "Alex Rodriguez" substituted for "Manny Ramirez". But that would be dishonest; A-Rod, despite the flaws he showed in this series, will be a Yankee for a long time. And though Ramirez also was unimpressive, the pressure to get rid of him is gone. Epstein's greatest task this offseason will be to resist the pressure to resign all of his free agents, and bring some new blood into the team.
Meanwhile, in the National League, there is still one game to go. The Rocket vs. Suppan matchup bodes well for Houston, but on the other hand, when the home team wins the first six games of a series, you have to respect the possibility that the trend will continue.
A few more thoughts:
1) Life imitates art: Curt Schilling set a new standard for "toughness" on the playing field, pitching a great game while his sutured tendon bled through his socks. It was, quite literally, a scene right out of The Natural.
2) Again, kudos to the fine ESPN Radio combos of Miller & Morgan and Schulman & Campbell. Dan still has another game to call tomorrow, I hope he didn't ruin his voice with his call of Edmonds' homer.
I hope someone at FOX will asks themselves why their announcers, working with a visual medium, feel the need to talk more often than the guys on the radio.
3a) As I write, about three hours have passed since the Sox won, and there is still no word from George Steinbrenner. At this point, we can only guess whether or not Torre and Cashman will be back, or whether one will be fired, or whether they both get canned. Strangely enough, I don't think George can go very wrong; the Yankees have a talented management team, but some changes might not be a bad thing.
But hopefuly, Yankee Nation now understands the reality of baseball's playoff system. It is unpredictable, and there is no magic formula for success. The Yankees were an all-time great team in 1998 and '99, but spoiled themselves with their wins in 1996 and 2000, which were just plain lucky. Now, the luck has evened out.
The Yankees will win again, and soon; they put a huge amount of resources into winning, and they'll get luck back on their side soon enough. Even Alex Rodriguez will redeem himself. But in any given postseason, the chances of even a great team winning is less than 50%, and no amount of Yankee intangibles can change those odds.
3b) Strangely, the interests of the Yankees and my Blue Jays now coincide. The Jays desperately need the playoffs expanded so they can have some hope of making the postseason; the most logical format, I believe, would be to add an extra wild card to each league. The two wild card teams then play a one-game playoff, with the winner moving on.
Using this system, Boston and Oakland would have played a one-game playoff; if Boston had won, then everything else would remain the same. The Sox would advance to face the Angels, while New York would still play Minnesota.
Thus, one extra team gets at least one playoff game, and the three division winners are rewarded as well. If the Yankees are going to win their division every year, it would surely be in their interest for the Red Sox to have to play a one-game playoff before moving on. Bud Selig seems determined to keep the status quo, and the Red Sox won't like the idea, but the Jays and Yankees need to start lobbying together.
4) Derek Jeter is a showboat. He's a master of physical exaggeration, can make any play look tougher than it is, or make any inside pitch look closer than it is.
Now, I don't really have too much of a problem with this. Jeter is entertaining in his own way, and I have no desire to turn baseball into the No Fun League. As Dizzy Dean said, "It ain't braggin' if you can do it." The Diz was a loudmouth who was unafraid to toot his own horn, both as player and broadcaster; he was perfectly suited for the new era of radio and sound film. Jeter is a throwback to the silent movie era, the Charlie Chaplin of baseball.
What I don't get is, why the media never call Jeter out for his antics. They don't have to be mean about it; just call a spade a spade. When Jeter runs halfway down the third base line to avoid an inside pitch, well, that's showboating. Blue-collar hockey commentator Don Cherry has made a career out of cutting down hotdogging on the ice; if Jeter were a hockey player, Cherry would be on his case very quickly, and would urge younger players not to follow the example.
The baseball media instead promotes Jeter's on-field behaviour as an example of how the game should be played, which is wrong. Jeter's skills and instincts are admirable; his penchant for grandstanding is something that a paid professional athlete, in the business of entertaining, can get away with, but is obviously not desirable at any other level of ball. A game in which everyone played like Derek Jeter would look less like baseball and more like the Cirque de Soleil.
From October 20, 2004:
LCS SHOCKER
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
(Obviously, the past three days and God Knows how many hours of playoff baseball have left me a little groggy and at a loss for words. So I'll just say a few nice things about...
(1) Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke, for being amazing acquisitions for the Sox.
(2) Tim Wakefield, for exorcising memories of Aaron Boone.
(3) Ray Boone, for a fine career and an amazing family dynasty.
(4) Jon Miller and Joe Morgan, who were better than I have ever heard them before on Sunday night. Thank God for ESPN radio.
From October 17, 2004:
LCS UPDATE
It is early Sunday afternoon; in a few hours, Game Four of both series will be either done or in progress. One series is done; the other is still in doubt, though the Astros need a big start from Oswalt, and then they need to figure out what to do when Oswalt and the Rocket aren't on the mound. This could be one of those years in which the series we've all been expecting since June - New York/St, Louis - may actually come to pass.
A few thoughts:
(1) What to do now in Boston? This series with the Yankees has been a huge disaster; they are now faced with the choice of blowing up a disappointing team, or tinkering with a team that won 98 games during the season.
Part of the decision has already been made for Theo Epstein. Nomar is gone, Pedro will be leaving, and so will a few other players. But they really can't overhaul this team as long as Manny Ramirez is a part of it. It wasn't much of a secret last winter, when the Sox put Manny on waivers and them attempted to trade him, that they don't think they could win with him on the roster. After this series, which has featured his less-than-stellar baserunning and fielding, my guess is that this feeling will persist.
(I still remember, from my youth, the Blue Jays' first playoff adventure in 1985, against the Royals. The Birds took a 3-1 lead, then lost three straight games. Bill James (currently employed by the Sox) dissected that series in his subsequent Abstract, calling the Jays "a superbly talented team, but a team which made exactly the kind of mistakes that lose playoffs, and plenty of them." The most celebrated mistake was George Bell getting thrown out at third base, just like Manny last night.)
I don't want to turn this into a character assassination of Ramirez, who is a superbly talented player, and can't be blamed for all of the failures of a team that hasn't won a championship since before my grandfather was born. But the Sox made a half-hearted effort last season to rid themselves of Ramirez, which fell through when they decided not to take on A-Rod's salary. Now, the team that was willing to take Rodriguez is kicking their butts.
Getting rid of Ramirez will cost the Sox either big money or a lot of players or both; no team is going to take him unless they get an additional incentive. It's the biggest decision that any GM will have to make this winter: with Manny, or without? I say without, but then, I'm not the one who owes him $80 million.
(2) MLB.com recently sent me an email promoting the Staples World Series Sweepstakes, offering a chance to win tickets to Game Four of the World Series. Hey, sounds great. Then I skipped down to the rules, and read the following:
"Open to legal residents of the 50 United States (except
Rhode Island) and the District of Columbia who are 21 years
of age or older at time of entry."
OK folks. I've registered with MLB.com; I've given you my home address here in Toronto, Canada. I have a .ca email address. Why the hell are you sending me details for a contest that I'm not eligible to enter? Worse than spam, if you ask me.
(3) Baseball's popularity has been on the rise the past few years, so much so that George Will, while defending his buddy Bud Selig, has called this a "golden age" for the game. That baseball has been able to do this is remarkable, given that [1] every game runs 20-40 minutes too long (or in the case of last night's game, 1-2 hours too long); [2] there is a leadership vacuum in the head office (sorry George); and [3] the most important games of the year are given horrifically awful coverage by Fox sports.
Up here in Canada, where hockey is king, there has been a running joke for several years about the glowing puck that Fox used on its broadcasts a few years ago, to help American viewers follow the action. Many Canadians consider it the worse innovation in the history of televised sports.
The puck has finally been trumped by Fox's very own Scooter, the annoying little ball who explains to us (often incorrectly) how different pitches work. For example, Scooter told us that a changeup "is the same thing as a slow-ball". What the hell is a slow-ball? Anyways, Scooter gets my vote for Worst. Idea. Ever. in the realm of sports broadcasting.
And to make things even worse, we've got the awful Buck-McCarver team for what, the 20th year in a row? It seems that way. Joe Buck is a decent talking head, but is not good enough to rise above his partners, in this case Tim McCarver and Scooter (and Al Leiter, who's decent but doesn't talk often enough).
McCarver jumped the shark about 15 years ago, but it still boggles the mind that he is doing all of these big games. Last night, when he wasn't talking about hairstyles, he was analyzing a different game than I was watching.
- After Brown threw a wild pitch, McCarver said that the ball was "normally one that Posada blocks". Posada, of course, is notorious for letting passed balls and wild pitches get by him, and while he may be better than he was five years ago, it's a real stretch to say that he "normally" blocks those pitches.
- McCarver has often been accused of being a cheerleader/apologist for Derek Jeter, which of course he is. It's something he can usually get away with, because Jeter does lots of good things most of the time.
Last night, of course, the Sox tied the game after Jeter booted a ball. It was an error; it was hit right at Jeter, and it hit him on the glove. There was a tricky hop, but it was still an ordinary play for a major league shortstop. If it had taken an easy hop, then you or I could have fielded it.
That's OK; everyone makes physical mistakes, even Jeter now and then. It wasn't a big deal, and there was no need to make excuses for him. But for Buck-McCarver to call the play a hit, and then criticize the scoring decision, is just terrible analysis. And also insulting to all of the other major league shortstops who earn millions of dollars because of their ability to catch balls hit right at them.
- After the Millar/Mueller debacle at home plate, the duo defended third base coach Dale Sveum, claiming that he had no choice but to send both runners because they were so close together.
One of the reasons that ex-ballplayers become analysts is that there is a widespread belief in the industry that they can see things on the field that us non-professionals cannot. I am often skeptical of this assertion, especially when Tim McCarver makes postseason baseball sound just like the recreational softball I used to play.
Surely to God, a major league third base coach has some way of communicating with his baserunners beyond just doing a giant pinwheel with his arm. If Sveum had no signal with which to communicate with the trailing runner, then perhaps incompetence would partly explain how the Sox had a runner thrown out at the plate last night.
And so it went on. Three innings of that was all I could take before I turned the radio on; I figured it wouldn't be long before Wakefield came into the game and Scooter would tell us how a knuckleball works. This may, as George Will claims, be a "golden age" for baseball, but as long as postseason games start too late, run too long and are butchered by the incompetence of Fox television, there is still room for improvement.
From October 9, 2004:
LDS UPDATE
Curiously, my LDS picks, (Boston, Minnesota, St. Louis and Atlanta), will all wake up tomorrow morning in different situations. The Red Sox have already won, while the Twins are done for the year. The Cardinals lead their series 2-1, while the Braves are down 2-1.
The Yankees and Red Sox spend 365 days a year preparing to face each other in the league championship series, and they do an awfully good job. I don't mean to offend anybody in Anaheim or Minnesota, but the truth is that neither the Twins nor the Angels had any business on the same field as either the Red Sox or the Yankees. Five days ago, I thought that the Twins would match up well with the Bombers, but after watching the first few innings of both series, I never had any doubt that New York and Boston would win.
Here's a fun Yankees fact: every National League team that has played in a World Series has faced the Yankees. Here are their most recent encounters:
Atlanta Braves (1999)
New York Mets (2000)
Florida Marlins (2003)
Philadelphia Phillies (1950)
Chicago Cubs (1938)
St. Louis Cardinals (1964)
Cincinnati Reds (1976)
Pittsburgh Pirates (1960)
Los Angeles Dodgers (1981)
San Francisco Giants (1962)
San Diego Padres (1998)
Arizona Diamondbacks (2001)
The only teams that the Yankees haven't played in a World Series are Montreal, Colorado, Houston and Milwaukee. The first three have never been to a World Series, while the Brewers were in the American League when they made their sole appearance. A New York-Houston matchup is a distinct possibility this season.
I'm also still licking my wounds, days after picking Ron Gardenhire as AL Manager of the Year, then watching him show off an uncanny ability to have the wrong pitcher on the mound at the wrong time. But then, Mike Scioscia was being fawned over by the ESPN crew before he pulled his own boneheaded pitching change. In the past, both Joe Torre and Bobby Cox (or God Knows, Bob Brenly) have been criticised for their bullpen management.
But it's too late to change my mind. Besides, how a manager uses his pitching staff in the postseason has virtually nothing to do with his performance during the regular season, and should not be used to judge his overall abilities. The "win-or-go-home" mentality of the postseason makes managers do - strange - things. So yeah, Grady, I still think you're a decent manager, despite everything.
NOTE TO SELF: Stop making jokes about Lima Time.
No matter how many autumns go by, baseball's playoffs still have the amazing ability to surprise. Jose Lima's shutout of the powerhouse Cardinals must rank among the most improbable and spectacular pitching performance in baseball postseason history.
However, unless the Incredible Lima can come back and pitch on one day's rest (and who knows, I'm sure he will volunteer), I don't think the Dodgers will prevail. And as for the Braves... I've come to the scientific conclusion that the Tomahawk Chop is responsible for all of the team's problems in the postseason. The negative energy produced by the Chop causes the hitters to slump and interferes with the manager's brainwaves and drives fans away from the park.
If I were Ted Turner, I would change the team name and ban foam tomahawks from the stadium. Atlanta Cougars sounds good; cats are famous for their positive energy. The team's fortunes will undoubtedly improve.
From October 4, 2004:
SEASON ROUNDUP
The regular season is finally over, and today (Monday) nothing is happening, remarkable since it looked very much like we would have at least one extra playoff game, maybe two or three. Everyone has started handing out their postseason hardware; I'll quickly do the same.
AL Most Valuable Player
1. Vladimir Guerrero
2. Miguel Tejada
3. Ichiro Suzuki
4. Manny Ramirez
The feeling seems to be that Guerrero locked up the MVP with his amazing final week of the season. That's not entirely fair; it wasn't the fault of the other guys that their teams weren't fighting for a playoff spot on the final weekend. I like to think that all 162 games are of equal value, and no extra cookies should be awarded for playing better in September than in, say, June.
But Vlad was a monster all season; I think he was better than either Ramirez or Sheffield, and may have been the best player in the league, depending on how you feel about Tejada's defense, or the peculiar talents of Ichiro Suzuki and Melvin Mora.
NL Most Valuable Player
1. Barry Bonds
2. Adrian Beltre
3. Albert Pujols
4. Jim Edmonds
Bonds, at age 39, was again the World's Greatest Hitter. Anyone who does not vote for Bonds apparently does not understand the freakishness of a .609 on-base percentage.
Pujols, once again, was the best hitter in the world not named Bonds. But it's impossible not to be swayed by Beltre's credentials; Adrian had a great year with the bat (if not quite at Pujols' level) and is a wonderful defensive third baseman. The Dodgers had to wait three years for him to get his career back on track, but I reckon that it was worth the wait.
AL Cy Young
1. Johan Santana
2. Curt Schilling
3. Mariano Rivera
4. Joe Nathan
Santana had a 5.40 ERA in April and a 5.79 ERA in May. What followed next must rank among the greatest four-month stretches by any pitcher in history (to be precise, Santana had a 1.51 ERA over the last four months).
Schilling appears to be headed for yet another runner-up finish in the Cy Young voting. That will be inconsequential if he brings a championship to ring to Boston. After that, I don't know how to choose from the remaining starters so instead I will take a couple of closers.
NL Cy Young
1. Randy Johnson
2. Roger Clemens
3. Ben Sheets
4. Jason Schmidt
Johnson and Sheets were the hard-luck hurlers; you can argue that they were the best two pitchers in the league, but both were sunk by crappy support from their teams. The Rocket had a great start to the year, scuffled a bit late in the summer but rounded back into form when the Astros made their run.
Schmidt was awesome the first five months of the year, but never recovered from an August hamstring injury that effectively ended the Giants' season. There are other guys, like Carlos Zambrano and Roy Oswalt, who also deserve a look,
It's close; I think Clemens will win, and he's got a good case. But The Unit was the best pitcher in the league.
AL Rookie of the Year
1. Bobby Crosby
2. Zack Greinke
A weak crop of rookies this season. I think Greinke performed at a higher level than Crosby, but it's tough to take a pitcher with 145 innings over a shortstop who plays every day. I doubt that the voters will give a Gold Glove to a rookie shortstop — but I can't think of an agreeable alternative in the AL this year.
NL Rookie of the Year
1. Jason Bay
2. Khalil Greene
A tough call between a slick shortstop who got hurt in the final month of the season, and a slugger who didn't get into the lineup until May. Greene's teammate, Akinori Otsuka, also has an interesting argument.
AL Manager of the Year
Ron Gardenhire
I know this award will go to Buck Showalter, and perhaps deservedly, but Gardenhire has now won three straight division titles. If the rumours are true, that it was Gardenhire who demanded that Justin Morneau be called up and forced Terry Ryan to deal Mientkiewicz, then I'm especially impressed.
NL Manager of the Year
Bobby Cox
After the Blue Jays' disastrous season, us Torontonians are perhaps a little more acutely aware over Cox's amazing ability to get the team into the playoffs year after year after year... sure, his postseason record ain't too hot, but you can't win the lottery if you don't buy a ticket.
AL All-Stars
CA Ivan Rodriguez (Jorge Posada)
1B Mark Teixeira (Paul Konerko)
2B Ron Belliard (Mark Bellhorn)
3B Alex Rodriguez (Melvin Mora)
SS Miguel Tejada (Derek Jeter)
OF Manny Ramirez (Hideki Matsui)
OF Ichiro Suzuki (Johnny Damon)
OF Vladimir Guerrero (Gary Sheffield)
DH David Ortiz (Travis Hafner)
SP Johan Santana (Curt Schilling)
RP Mariano Rivera (Joe Nathan)
Four catchers (Rodriguez, Posada, Martinez, Lopez) were almost interchangeable. Pudge had the best numbers, though he also played the fewest games behind the plate.
One of these does not belong, but it was some kind of weak season for second basemen in the American League, so we'll have to make do with Belliard.
Mora was fantastic with the bat, clearly better than A-Rod, but spent time on the DL, and he appeared to struggle on defense.
Sheffield will do very well in the MVP voting, and he certainly had some hot stretches during the summer when he carried the Yankees. But he also had three months (April, May, September) in which he wasn't very good. I don't see him as one of the top three outfielders in the league.
NL All-Stars
CA Jason Kendall (Johnny Estrada)
1B Albert Pujols (Todd Helton)
2B Mark Loretta (Jeff Kent)
3B Adrian Beltre (Scott Rolen)
SS Jack Wilson (Cesar Izturis)
OF Barry Bonds (Adam Dunn)
OF Jim Edmonds (Lance Berkman)
OF Bobby Abreu (JD Drew)
SP Randy Johnson (Roger Clemens)
RP Eric Gagne (Brad Lidge)
Mark Loretta was by far the best second baseman in baseball, and when some more advanced defensive stats get published, I might think more seriously about moving him up in my MVP rankings.
Wilson and Izturis are glove men who both had remarkable seasons with the bat. I think Wilson was a little better with both the bat and glove.
With the amount of press he gets, you might think that Bobby Abreu didn't exist. But he does, and he really had an amazing season.
Predictions:
Last year, I predicted a Boston-Atlanta World Series. That turned out to be a spectacularly bad prediction, so I'm trying it again.
Division Series
Boston over Anaheim
Minnesota over New York
Atlanta over Houston
St. Louis over Los Angeles
LCS
Boston over Minnesota
Atlanta over St. Louis
World Series
Atlanta over Boston
Boston's actually much better than Atlanta, but, well, you know... you could have made a lot of money over the years betting against the Red Sox.
JOHN CERUTTI: I watch and listen to a lot of baseball on television and radio over the course of the season. Up here in Toronto, I probably watched part of least 90 Jays games on the local Sportsnet channel, with the play-by-play duo of Rob Faulds and John Cerutti. I've never met either of them, but when you let someone into your home almost every day during the summer, you can't help but feel an attachment to them.
John Cerutti passed away, from natural causes, on Sunday, at age 44. When I was ten years old, John made his debut with the Jays in 1985, and pitched with the team until 1990. After he left baseball, he started his broadcasting career; he began doing a handful of Jays games a year on the CBC in the late 90's, then moved to cable and over the past three seasons became the "voice" of the team on television.
It is the peculiar nature of professional sports that I was able to follow John's career pretty closely for almost 20 years, both on the field and in the broadcast booth. Some stuff sticks out in my mind; I vaguely recall his first career start, which he lost to Phil Niekro in what was Niekro's 300th career win (the kid never had a chance; the Jays had already won the division, and had their B-lineup against the Old Man). I remember the first Jays win at the SkyDome; but I had forgotten the playoff game in 1989 when he picked Rickey Henderson off of first base, a play that has been replayed frequently the past couple of days.
Much has already been said and written here in Toronto by the people who knew John well, and at the moment I don't have the words to express what his loss means to his family and friends. All I will say is that I appreciate the work he did over many years for Toronto fans, and I will miss him.
From September 24, 2004:
BEWARE THE THIN AIR
Earlier this week, Jeff Francis of the Colorado Rockies was named Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year. Francis is a left-handed pitcher, 23 years old, who began the year as a good-not-great prospect. With Tulsa in the Double-A Texas League, he put up the following line:
W L GS CG SH IP HT BB SO ERA
Tulsa (AA) 13 1 17 1 1 113.2 73 22 147 1.99
He was then promoted to Colorado Springs in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, and did this:
W L GS CG SH IP HT BB SO ERA
Colorado Springs (AAA) 3 2 7 0 0 41.0 35 7 49 2.85
Overall, that's a 16-3 record in 24 starts, with 196 strikeouts in 144.2 innings, against 29 walks. Not bad. Late in August, he was ticketed to start in Athens for the Canadian baseball team, but the Rockies changed their minds and had him remain in Colorado. He has since made his major league debut, and has done OK, has had a couple of good starts and a couple of bad ones.
I have written in the past, and still believe, that the Rockies are the worst-run organization in baseball, not counting the Expos. The Mets, admittedly, are making a strong case for themselves, but I'm sticking with the Rockies for now.
What is most frustrating about the Rockies is that they stubbornly refuse to adapt their roster to their ballpark. To win in Coors Field, the Rockies must lead the league in runs scored; instead, every year the they run out Todd Helton and a bunch of stiffs onto the field, then complain afterwards about how hard it is to win in Colorado.
Here's my advice, then, for winning in Colorado. STEP ONE: If Vinny Castilla is your cleanup hitter, you are in trouble.
STEP TWO: Trade Jeff Francis.
The second step is unsavoury; fans, after all, love to get excited about young players, especially when they rank among the best prospects in the business. But the Rockies have to face two realities:
1) Francis is healthy and pitching brilliantly and is among the most hyped and coveted prospects in baseball, and
2) He has no chance of reaching his potential in Colorado
In recent seasons, run scoring in Colorado has been on the decline; the humidor experiment, presumably, has been a success. While Coors Field used to inflate run scoring over 50% each season, last year it was down to 30%. This year, however, the numbers have spiked back up to 43%. Despite the decline in scoring, the thin air is still a nightmare for pitchers of all ages and types.
The Rockies' record of developing young pitchers is atrocious. The only one of any note was Jason Jennings, who two years ago was Rookie of the Year, and was hyped as a guy who could survive in the thin air thanks his dynamite sinker. This season, Jennings has a 5.66 ERA, and has given up a .325 average at home, submitting to the reality that there is no magic formula for pitching at Coors Field.
You could argue that the Rockies have never had anyone as talented as Francis, but it's hard not to worry about his future. The Rockies, in the past, have spent a princely fortune on quality veteran pitchers (Denny Neagle, Darryl Kile, Mike Hampton) and have watched each one completely implode. These were pitchers with years of success in the big leagues under their belts; Francis may have great stuff, but he's just getting his feet wet.
Even worse, he won't get much breathing room to work with, because the Rockies have one of the weakest lineups in baseball. Though they are fourth in the league in runs scored, they are only 14th in scoring in road games.
If you are GM Dan O'Dowd, you have to face up to the fact that you are not playing your games in Dodger Stadium. You also have to assume that, starting next spring, Jeff Francis' trade value can only go in one direction, and that is down. Obviously, the trade has to bring a good return - something better than Victor Zambrano - but given Francis' credentials, somebody will surely step up to the plate with a couple of good hitting prospects.
I know that I would like to see my home team, the Blue Jays, at least make an offer. The Jays have some attracted young hitters, and could definitely use a Canadian-born pitcher with star potential.
Or, O'Dowd could get creative, and try to deal Helton and Francis together. Helton's contract is an albatross that no one wants to pick up - he'll be making $19 million in 2011 - but he is a great player, and someone might take him if they could get Francis as well. The Mets, for example, have some cash to spend, and they need a first baseman with a big bat and a great glove, and they could use an outstanding young left-hander in the aftermath of the Kazmir debacle.
Of course, they would have to part with David Wright, which might cause New York fans to burn down Shea Stadium but those are the risks you take. It ain't easy to upstage Steinbrenner.
I don't really think that the Rockies will trade Francis; they will more likely convince themselves that this is the guy who will beat the Coors Curse. If not him, then who else? They need somebody to pitch for them, right?
My opinion is that, if you are GM of the Rockies, you don't even worry about who your pitchers are because you have no control over their performance. You just collect as many great hitters as you can, spend as little money on the pitching staff as possible, and hope things work out. It's an inexact science, but there's no point in spending $121 million on Mike Hampton when you can get Steve Sparks to pitch just as badly for a fraction of the cost.
(As far as acquiring great hitters goes, Helton is a good start, and I would not advocate trading him unless I thought that his contract might bankrupt the team.)
Funny how I chose to write about a dreadful team while there are some playoff races going on. But what the hell... at this point in the season, there's not much "analysis" you can do on teams like Chicago, Los Angeles, Oakland, etc. Either they win, or they don't. I thought that Texas was dead in the water last week, which goes to show that past Labour Day, what I think doesn't account for much.
Currently, the most interesting debates are over postseason pitching rotations i.e. who gets dropped from the Cubs staff, who the hell is Boston's #3 guy going to be, Harden or Zito, etc. The correct answers, I believe, are Kerry Wood (who becomes the closer), Bronson Arroyo and Harden. I'm guessing that none of these teams gets the monkey off their back unless they take some chances.
(ADDENDUM: OK, I just watched Mark Mulder pitch against the Angels on Sunday night. I knew he had been struggling recently, but I didn't realize that he was throwing the ball like my grandmother. Perhaps he should be the odd man out.)
From September 4, 2004:
MAKING A CASE FOR THE UNIT
I haven't updated the front page of the site in almost a month. That is not to say that I haven't been doing any work; profiles of Sherm Lollar, Norm Cash, Eddie Stanky, Dolph Camilli and a few others have been rewritten. I haven't tuned out the current season, but I have also been spending a lot of time reading old copies of The Sporting News.
And I've also been working on adding the 1876-1900 pages to the historical section of the site, which, at the rate I'm going, should be finished around 2006. And when I say "finished", I mean they'll be in early rough draft form.
As for August, the Red Sox, Astros and Marlins are charging hard for a wild-card berth. The Sox may even challenge the Yankees for the division lead. Both Houston and Florida looked dead in the water until their recent surges; the trick, of course, will be sustaining their success. Winning streaks are like sex; once they're over, there's usually a refractory period, where a team that wins 10 games in a row then slumps and loses five or six.
That was the silliest analogy I've ever used. Moving on...
It's time to start talking seriously about Randy Johnson winning the National League Cy Young Award. I know; his won-loss record is only 12-12. But this is 2004; we've mapped the human genome and put robots on Mars. It's time to move on to a new era in Cy Young voting.
Before we get into The Big Unit's credentials, let's ponder what makes a good pitcher. Albert Spalding explains:
"Those of the pitching fraternity who read up on the subject of skill in pitching, were told that the primary elements of strategic work in the "box" included: "First, to deceive the eye of the batsman in regard to the character of the delivery of the ball, as to its being fast or slow. Second, to deceive his judgment in reference to the direction of the ball when pitched to him, as to its being high or low, or where he wants it. Third, to watch the batsman closely so as to know just when he is temporarily 'out of form' for making a good hit; and Fourth, to tempt him with a ball which will be likely to go high from his bat to the outfield and be caught." Then again they were told that "another very effective point in strategic pitching, is a thoroughly disguised change of pace in delivery. This is difficult of attainment, and as a general rule it can only be played with effect on the careless class of batsmen.
Let it be borne in mind that the pitcher who cannot control his temper is as unfit for his position as is a quick-tempered billiard player to excel as a winner in professional contests. Quick temper is the mortal foe of cool judgment, and it plays the mischief with that nervy condition so necessary in the development of skilful strategy. The pitcher must of necessity be subject to annoyances well calculated to try a man's temper, especially when his best efforts in pitching are rendered useless by the blunders of incompetent fielders, but under such trying circumstances his triumph is all the greater if he can pluck victory out of the fire of such opposition, by the thorough control of his temper. This is something only a minority of League pitchers did in 1894."
Randy Johnson has, of course, needed to control his temper at times when his best efforts in pitching have been rendered useless by the blunders of incompetent fielders, not to mention relievers and hitters. The Arizona Diamondbacks are an historically awful team, and have stuck the Unit with a 12-12 record, not exactly Cy Young material.
Johnson does lead the National League with a 2.71 ERA, however. He also leads with 242 strikeouts. He is second in innings pitched, with 202. Opponents are batting .189, the lowest mark in the league. Their opposing on-base and slugging percentages are also the lowest in the league (.235 and .309, respectively). Only three NL pitchers have received less run support (4.05 runs per start). Oh, and he also threw a perfect game, for good measure.
Looking at some sabermetric stats, he leads in DIPS ERA by a good margin (2.45), and also Component ERA by a very wide margin (1.71). He leads NL pitchers in VORP (59.2). He leads the NL with 10 Tough Losses. He has an average Game Score of 65.1, also the best in the league. On May 18, he had a Game Score of 100, which is, well, perfect.
There is still a month left to go, but the Unit is not slowing down. He had 15 strikeouts in his last start, 11 in the one before that, 14 before that, 14 more before that... you get the idea. Whether you prefer conventional stats or sabermetric ones, I think it is pretty obvious that RJ has been the best pitcher in the league. Everything except the wins is there.
I suspect that most everyone in the media knows that he has been the best pitcher in the league, yet leaves him out of the serious Cy Young discussions because... I dunno, they're afraid of being called names or something. And to be fair, Jason Schmidt has been a stud most of the year and would be a decent choice, though he has struggled recently.
If Schmidt finishes strong, I won't begrudge him winning. But if the Unit continues to broaden the gap between them... well, I'll be giving him my version of the Cy Young, for whatever that's worth. Whether the professionals do the same, that's up to them.
The Sox may even challenge the Yankees for the division lead.
Huh. I wrote that about an hour ago, and just learned that Kevin Brown broke his hand while punching a wall. Is this the year that the Curse of the Babe is finally broken, and is replaced by the Curse of Zell Miller?
From August 10, 2004:
GOOD LUCK, FRIEND
Carlos Tosca, the Blue Jays' manager, was fired after Sunday's game. The firing came after months of speculation about his future, and five straight losses, including three humiliating defeats at the hands of the New York Yankees.
Up here in Toronto, the response has been bitter and divisive; GM J.P. Ricciardi has come under attack from the media for his handling of Tosca's firing, and for the crappy performance of the team in general. Some fans think that Tosca got a raw deal, and others say good riddance; most, I think, liked the guy and wish things had turned out better, but acknowledge that the change had to be made.
As for myself... I have had trouble organizing my thoughts the past couple of days. But anyways, I'll make an attempt:
— Some have argued that Tosca is not to blame for the Jays' struggles this year. Of course not; it's not about blame. It's about accountability, and the manager is accountable for the performance of the team on the field. A wise man once said that "The buck stops here", a lesson that has unfortunately been lost on many of today's political, business and civic leaders.
Ricciardi is also accountable, of course, but it's not J.P.'s job to fire himself. At least, not at this stage of his tenure. There are others who have to make that decision.
— Tosca was brought to the organization by Ricciardi to replace Buck Martinez in 2002. The weird thing is, Tosca ended up managing the team almost the same way that Buck did. Martinez used to drive me nuts with his overmanaging of the pitching staff, making too many pitching changes and ordering too many intentional walks and pitchouts. But Tosca did the same thing.
When the Jays were flying high in 2003, Tosca was credited with changing the attitude in the clubhouse. And maybe he did, for awhile. But earlier this year, when the team was struggling badly in April, Tosca seemed to acquire the same confused, deer-in-the-headlights look that Buck had in his last few weeks, unable to explain what was going wrong.
I'm sure there were substantial differences behind the scenes between Martinez and Tosca. But you know... Ricciardi has been accused of putting Tosca in a straightjacket, and giving him orders about how to manage. Maybe there's some truth to that, but there's an awful lot of sameness among managers around the league, regardless of who they work for. Even the supposedly offbeat guys, like Ozzie Guillen, seem to make the same moves and mistakes as everyone else. The only really unique managers are the ones who have been around forever.
— How good, or bad, is this team?
1) The team has had its worst year for injuries in franchise history. They will presumably have better luck next year.
2) The team has sucked with runners in scoring position. Their batting average with RISP is only .247, worst in the league.
Clutch performance is unpredictable from year to the next; the Jays in 2003 batted .297 with RISP, second-best in the league. That was a fluke performance; preseason prognosticators should have expected that number to drop down to the league average, in the .270 range. Unfortunately, it has sunk much lower, the second fluke in a row.
The same rule applies for 2005; preseason prognosticators should expect the Jays to bat about 20-30 points higher with RISP next season. You never know, but that's what should be expected.
3) The Jays' home run rate has dropped 30% since 2003, the largest drop of any team in the league.
I have no explanation for this, and I can't write it off as a fluke. The loss of power is by far the greatest problem that Ricciardi needs to address.
4) The bullpen has been a major disappointment, particularly the veterans that Ricciardi brought in. On the good side, rookie Jason Frasor has done a nice job as the closer and has helped stop the bleeding. If Frasor learns to throw his curveball with consistency, he might make a decent closer; otherwise, he has no future in that role. Like this year, the Jays will have about two dozen inexpensive veteran relievers to choose from, and hopefully will make better choices.
5) The minor league system features a lot of quality depth, but not much star power. Alex Rios is a good player now and may be an All-Star, but probably not in 2005. Aaron Hill appears to have the most upside among kids on the farm, but probably won't be a key player until 2006. They've got some kids who can fill in some holes and contribute quality seasons, but they really need a return to All-Star form from Vernon Wells and Roy Halladay.
On the whole, I think this team still has to be considered the favourite to finish in third place in the East division next season, unless Tampa's Whiz Kids all develop at once. The Jays should finish either a few games above or below .500, depending on changes in luck; making the playoffs appears to be an unrealistic goal for 2005.
Of course, lots can happen between now and next March. Trades, injuries, free agent signings... maybe a small asteroid will strike the SkyDome and reduce it to smouldering rubble.
— This ongoing war between differing baseball ideologies has become tiresome. It's bad enough that fans are at each other's throats, and are often unpleasant about it; here in Toronto, Ricciardi and the local media have been feuding ever since the publication of Moneyball. And after the Tosca firing, well, let's just say that the venom was spewing.
(Not that I'm blaming Michael Lewis for all this; he just wrote a book, he can't control how people react to it. As James Earl Jones told Kevin Costner in Field of Dreams, "It's not my fault you wouldn't play catch with your father." )
What's worse, all this sniping doesn't seem to be helping to grow the fan base in the city. So here is my list of tips for fans, talk-show hosts, sportswriters and baseball executives who can't get along with each other:
* If you feel a need to vent your frustrations, create your own website. Newspapers, talk shows and other people's websites are bad places to vent.
* Keep your ego/vanity in check, or it will always come back and bite you. There is too much random chance in baseball to allow the smart guys to consistently beat the dopes; even the biggest dopes win now and then (see Loria, Jeffrey).
* If you can't say anything nice about somebody, change the subject to Pete Rose. Or the Brooklyn Dodgers. Or knuckleballs.
* Don't brag. If you think you're so good at predicting the future, try playing the stock market with your life savings. Otherwise, acknowledge that even the most educated predictions require some luck to come true.
* Don't assume that you know more about baseball than the other guy. There's always somebody out there who knows more than you.
* Despite 30 years of intense statistical research into baseball by a growing community of fans, what we don't know still outweighs what we do know.
* Much of what we do know is counter-intuitive. Just because a statistic doesn't make sense, doesn't make it untrue. For 15 years, Einstein refused to believe that the universe was expanding, before being forced to admit his error; don't make the same mistake.
* Intangibles are exactly that - intangible. Arguing about them is like arguing about what the world would be like if the Kennedy brothers had survived. An interesting exercise, but you'll never know if you're right or not.
* Baseball's record books are unforgiving. If you state something as fact, you better make sure you're right, because someone will check.
* You can't have good without bad. It's OK to be critical of poor performance if it helps you appreciate good performance.
* A team that loses 95 games is still better than a team that plays zero games.
Anyways... if it makes anyone happy, I suspect that Ricciardi has fired his last Blue Jay manager. If the next guy doesn't work out, I can't imagine that J.P. would be allowed to start over again with another manager. Of course, I would have said the same thing five years ago about Bobby Clarke and the Flyers, and...well, you know.
For those who think that Ricciardi should have been axed, I'll say one thing: that decision belongs to Paul Godfrey, and I have to believe that if he fired Ricciardi, Godrey would also have to resign. Since Godfrey became team President, the team has fired three managers and one general manager, failed to contend in September, suffered financial losses and declining attendance, and become increasingly irrelevant on the local scene. The only good thing you can say about Godfrey is that he hired Ricciardi to turn things around; he's got to keep the faith.
I wish Carlos Tosca well, and hope that he avoids the fate of the past five Blue Jay managers, none of whom has gotten another managing job in the majors (despite the fact that one of them won two World Series).
From July 16, 2004:
ALL-STAR AFTERMATH
Baseball returned with a bang last night after a lethargic All-Star break. Some examples:
- Shawn Green hit a two-out, two-strike grand slam in the 8th inning last nigt to give the Dodgers a 4-3 win over the DBacks, spoiling a terrific Randy Johnson start. Eric Gagne was also brilliant, entering the game in th 8th with the tying run on base, and striking out all four batters he faced. It may have been Johnson's last start with Arizona.
- The Giants scored four runs in the 9th to come back and beat the Rockies. With the Giants leading 5-4, Barry Bonds came up to the plate with the bases loaded. He struck out - but not before two runs scored on a wild pitch and a throwing error. Earlier in the game, Bonds was intentionally walked three times.
- Zack Greinke picked up his second win for the Royals. He pitched seven innings; for the final six outs, Tony Pena used five pitchers, and got five strikeouts.
I have written in the past that this kind of bullpen management is insane, and I still believe that to be true. But it's kind of funny when it works; I hope Pena doesn't expect it to work often.
- Oakland beat the White Sox, 4-2. Each team hit a home run - Eric Chavez for Oakland, Magglio Ordoñez for Chicago. The walking wounded are back.
- Speaking of the walking wounded, Marcus Giles had two doubles in his return for the Braves. I now believe that the Braves are going to win another division title.
As for the All-Star Game itself, it was pretty boring after the AL tattooed Roger Clemens. Some random notes:
1) What's the deal with Lance Berkman? He batted right-handed in the Home Run Derby, and hit some monster shots, including one that almost travelled 500 feet.
The thing is, over the past four years, Berkman has hit 11 home runs right-handed, compared to 106 from the left side. Where does all his right-handed power go during games?
2) I actually listened to the game more than I watched it. ESPN Radio featured the wonderful Dan Schulman partnered with Dave Campbell; it was a little annoying because the television broadcast was seven seconds ahead of the radio, and Dan was calling home runs a few seconds before I got to see them. But I had no choice; the Buck-McCarver combo makes my ears bleed.
3) It's over for God Bless America. Now, I'm Canadian, and I'm the first to admit that the song didn't mean a damned thing to me before 9/11. And for awhile, it made a lot of people feel good about themselves and their country, and I'm OK with that.
But when it's sung by an Americal Idol winner to promote Fox Television's lineup... you know it's become a form of self-parody. Sing it on Opening Day, on July 4, during the opening game of the World Series, and get a real singer to do it. But for all the other games, let's just stop.
Seriously, I say this as a friend; stop before its importance becomes devalued. Sing it three or four times a year; it will be so much more special.
4) Jimy Williams was fired. This was a good thing; I actually like Jimy, but he was the wrong fit in Houston from day one. The underachieved last year and was sputtering this year and needed to make a change.
Actually, the change should have come a month ago. And worse, Jimy was replaced with... Phil Garner??? The man with the career .469 winning percentage? Whose last winning season was in 1992?
I've heard some people say that it will be interesting to see what Garner can do with a talented team. Folks, the Astros don't have time to see what Garner can do. Roger Clemens is 41 years old; Craig Biggio is 38, while Jeff Bagwell and Jeff Kent are both 36. This is it. This is the end of Bagwell-Biggio era. After this season, it's over.
Oh well, maybe Garner will discover some magic. But geez, the Astros have been in the league since 1962, and have yet to win a single playoff series. You would think that, after 43 years, they would hire a manager with a history of success.
5) In his ESPN.com column, Joe Morgan weighs in on the current practice of giving home field advantage in the World Series to the league that wins the All-Star Game. He doesn't like it; as Joe explains:
"Yes, I'm in favor of returning to the time-honored alternating-years format that was employed before last year. I feel that the more we get away from tradition, the more the game suffers in the long run."
As usual, Joe is half right and half wrong. I agree that giving home field advantage to the All-Star winner is a silly idea; I also agree that keeping traditions is important - assuming that they are good traditions.
The alternating-years format, however, was a silly tradition that should stay on the scrap heap of history where it belongs. One of the better ideas I've heard, is to give home-field advantage to the league that wins the most games in interleague play; at least the games mean something.
I, however, propose a sabermetric solution that I think would be cool to try. When two teams meet in the Series, give home field advantage to the team with the best Pythagorean Won-Loss %.
In case you need a refresher, the Pythagorean winning percentage is derived from this formula:
P% = x^2 / (x^2 + y^2)
...where x = Runs Scored and y = Runs Allowed
For example, the Jays have scored 400 runs, and allowed 424. So their Pythogorean Won-Loss % is .471 (their actual winning % is .443).
Let's say that tomorrow, the Yankees beat the crap out of the Tigers, and have a 10-1 lead after five innings. Joe Torre will probably be inclined to take out some of his regulars, maybe take out his pitcher and bring in Tanyon Sturtze.
But by the end of the game, the score might be 10-6. The Yankees still win, but their Pythagorean record suffers. Yankee fans, who are a surly lot, moan and complain. Good teams will be under pressure to play their best players and pitchers for every inning.
Honestly, I have no idea whether this will make games more interesting or not. It's just an idea. Time to start the second half of the year.
From July 3, 2004:
MIDSEASON UPDATE
The home team here in Toronto just played its 80th game last night, meaning we're almost at the midpoint of the season. For me, the ball season usually goes by too quickly - but this year has been an exception. This has been a long, frustrating season for Blue Jay fans, and it's hard to believe there are still 82 games left. Maybe some good things well happen.
Meanwhile, there are still five very close division races going on, with only the Yankees seemingly in control. The Yanks and Red Sox played a truly great game two nights ago; I only wish that Tommy Lee Jones had been doing play-by-play: "That Derek Jeter, he just did a Peter Pan, right into the stands, right here. Yeah, boom!"
OK, I will take a look at some of my preseason predictions, see how they turned out:
AL MVP: Carlos Beltran
He won't win the award, but he's had an interesting season. Had a red hot start, then went into a slump, then was traded to Houston and has been hitting lots of home runs the past week.
Midpoint Choice: It's a three-horse race in the AL between Vladdy Guerrero, Manny Ramirez and Pudge Rodriguez. Guerrero and Ramirez are awesome hitters, and their teams are winning (though both the Angels and Red Sox have fallen on hard times of late).
GM AB HT DB TP HR RN RB BB SO AVG OBA SLG OPS SB CS
Ramirez 75 287 97 25 0 22 48 63 49 64 338 434 655 1089 1 4
Guerrero 77 312 107 24 0 19 67 69 25 38 343 391 603 993 6 0
Rodriguez 69 281 108 22 1 10 40 56 22 42 384 428 577 1005 7 0
The Tigers have a losing record, but this has been a pretty spectacular season compared to what they went through last year. The Tigers are 37-41; Pudge is batting .384 with power. He's my first half MVP.
NL MVP: Todd Helton
Helton is quietly hitting .350 (with a 1.000 OPS in road games), but this isn't the Rockies' year.
Midpoint Choice: Again, another three-horse race, with Jim Thome, Scott Rolen and some old guy in San Francisco the top candidates.
GM AB HT DB TP HR RN RB BB SO AVG OBA SLG OPS SB CS
Thome 69 259 78 18 1 27 53 58 49 68 301 415 691 1106 0 2
Rolen 76 275 94 16 3 18 51 77 34 49 342 417 618 1035 2 1
Bonds 69 172 61 11 0 22 63 45 117 16 355 620 802 1422 3 0
Thome and Rolen are having magnificent seasons, and their teams are leading their divisions. Too bad they are in competition with The Amazing One, whose team also happens to be in first place. Bonds is my pick.
AL CY YOUNG: Tim Hudson
Hudson was having a good year until he went on the DL. He probably has little chance of winning the award, though I'm honestly not sure who the favourite is right now. Maybe these guys:
W L SV G GS CG SH IP HT HR BB SO ERA
Schilling 10 4 0 16 16 1 0 111.0 108 8 20 100 3.24
Mulder 10 2 0 16 16 4 1 118.0 99 9 36 81 2.90
Rivera 0 0 29 39 0 0 0 41.2 31 1 14 35 0.86
My guess is that if the vote were held today, Rivera would win, though it would be kinda funny if he went the whole season without a win or loss. Mulder hasn't lost in a long while. If I had to choose, I would take Mulder.
NL CY YOUNG: Mark Prior
I guess he could still do a Rick Sutcliffe, go 15-1 in the second half or something, but this probably isn't Prior's year. At the moment, the Cy Young race in the National League is a tight one:
W L SV G GS CG SH IP HT HR BB SO ERA
Glavine 7 5 0 17 17 1 1 116.2 88 7 29 60 2.16
Schmidt 10 2 0 15 15 2 2 107.0 69 10 35 112 2.61
Clemens 10 2 0 16 16 0 0 102.2 82 8 43 107 2.63
Johnson 9 6 0 17 17 2 2 115.1 77 10 25 129 3.04
Sheets 7 5 0 16 16 1 0 108.1 82 10 17 113 2.58
Zambrano 9 3 0 15 15 1 1 108.1 84 8 43 99 2.41
Eric Gagne still hasn't blown a save, but I don't think a closer will win this year's NL Cy Young.
Clemens and Johnson have received most of the hype, thanks to Clemens' great start and Johnson's perfect game. Schmidt is an animal, Zambrano has been a rock in Chicago, and Sheets has turned the corner in Milwaukee.
Both Sheets and Glavine have received crappy run support, hence their unimpressive won-loss records. But I don't see how I can choose differently - Glavine is the man.
Top Rookies: Is Lew Ford a rookie? Not sure; anyways, it's probably either him or Bobby Crosby in the AL at this point, though Jason Frasor and Shingo Takatsu have some nice numbers too.
In the National League, it's probably a Padre, either shortstop Khalil Greene or reliever Akinori Otsuka. Pittsburgh's Jason Bay was slowed by injury the first half of the season, but with eight RBI in one game last night may be ready to make up for lost time.
Of course, we could just say "Damn the numbers!" and take Zack Greinke in the AL, who has a 1-5 record but certainly has the greatest "wow factor" of any rookie in the league. (addendum: I forgot Joe Mauer, who has been hurt but will obviously be the ROY if he stays healthy in the second half).
Managers of the Year: Not only is he manager of the year, Lou Piniella has pretty much iced his spot in the Hall of Fame. Alan Trammell will get some votes, too, and Buck Showalter.
The Yankees are dominating the league, but you know what, I wouldn't vote for Joe Torre, either. I have a lot of respect for Joe, but he doesn't seem to be doing any managing this year. He brought in both Felix Heredia and Tanyon Sturtze to pitch in a tie game against the Red Sox - and still won. Even if Joe wanted to sabotage this team, I don't think he could.
National League: I really, really don't want to evaluate the relative merits of LaRussa, Baker and Bowa, so without putting much thought into the topic I will just take Felipe Alou.
And a look at some of my team comments from before the season:
Yankees:
"The Yankees defied the odds by winning three straight championships, especially difficult in an era when teams must survive three short playoff series. But now we've had three straight surprise winners, and though I don't know how to calculate the odds, I suspect that it's a trend that won't continue any longer."
Translated into English, this means "Yankees will kick ass in 2004".
Devil Rays:
"I don't think I have ever seen or heard so much enthusiasm over such a sorry collection of players... their pitching is horrible. An excellent bet to lose at least 95 games again, despite what Lou says."
Gee, this was looking like a pretty wise comment when they were 18 games under .500.
White Sox:
"Williams has made some awful trades, most notably the Todd Ritchie and Billy Koch deals. The Colon deal worked out, though Williams' midseason trades fizzled. Getting Esteban Loaiza was more likely a stroke of luck than a stroke of genius. I think that the White Sox have the most talent in the Central, and I think they will win; if they don't, then it really will be time for the Ken Williams era to come to an end."
So this year, Williams makes the gamble of all gambles, trading Miguel Olivo, Jeremy Reed and prospect Michael Morse for Freddy Garcia.
If the Sox had acquired Randy Johnson in return, then maybe you could justify this deal. But Freddy Garcia? He's a good pitcher, but not an A-list guy... unless the White Sox win the pennant, this doesn't look like a good deal for Chicago.
Here's what I think happened. Jeremy Reed hit .409 in half a season at AA last year; Kenny Williams went into negative thinking mode, refusing to believe that he was really that good. This year, Reed hit .273 in half a season at Charlotte; Williams congratulated himself for not buying into the hype, and started shopping him around.
Well, Reed isn't a .400 hitter, but he isn't a .273 hitter, either. He's gonna hit .300 with some power, walks and speed, with a chance to be a special George Brett-type hitter. And the Mariners also upgrade their catching situation right away, and they get a shortstop prospect. With any luck, this trade makes up for the Carlos Guillen debacle.
Rangers:
"The inability of the Rangers to acquire any good pitchers, or to even get lucky, as the White Sox did with Loaiza and the Expos did with Hernandez, is startling."
The Rangers, finally, get a break with their pitching staff, with Kenny Rogers to the rescue. And in case you hadn't noticed, Francisco Cordero is awesome.
Marlins:
"A repeat of a championship is unlikely, if only because last year's championship was so unlikely. I think that they will contend in 2004, but 2005 is the season that they should be building for. Give Choi and Miguel Cabrera a full year to develop, give A.J. Burnett a year to get his strength back. See if Beckett can finally throw 200 innings in a season."
I think this was a solid assessment of the Marlins' chances this year. They may still make the playoffs, if only because the Phillies are underachievers, and the Mets and Braves are uninspiring.
Astros:
"They were fourth in the league in runs scored last year, playing in a hitter's park. They enter this season with the exact same lineup; three players (Bagwell, Biggio, Kent) are all on the downswing of their career, and another (Ausmus) is cooked. There isn't a lot of potential for improvement, except maybe at third base."
The Astros had three options this summer:
1) Improve the roster
2) Fire the manager
3) All of the above
They chose (1), acquiring Carlos Beltran, but should have chosen (3). I like Jimy Williams and I think he did a solid job in Boston, but he's been the wrong fit in Houston since Day One. If this team isn't in first place by August 1, they've got to get a new manager.
And why is Brad Ausmus still playing regularly? I'm sure he's a good guy and all, but whatever intangibles he brings to the game, they aren't showing up in the win-loss column.
Brewers:
"Things are looking good in Milwaukee. Not for this year, and probably not for next year, but down the road. They will be getting new owners, which is good because no city deserves to be associated with the Selig family for more than 30 years. They have competent management, they have a few decent players, and they have a great farm system. Prince Fielder and Richie Weeks rank among the best prospects in baseball, and should be playing within two years. And they're not alone; the Brewers have many fine prospects."
Man, this has been a great year for the Brew Crew. They are playing above-.500 ball in a tough division, they have developed both a stud ace (Sheets) and a pretty good (if weird) closer, Danny Kolb. They have some solid players, with Weeks and Fielder still on the way.
Hopefully, the team gets sold before the Seligs screw it up.
Pirates:
"The Pirates don't produce good young players; instead, they like to fill their roster with veteran players whom no one else wants. They have done a decent job of trading those veterans and acquiring good young players (Craig Wilson, Kip Wells, Oliver Perez, Jason Bay, Freddy Sanchez), but are reluctant to actually give them a chance to grow and develop."
In his last six starts, Oliver Perez has 57 strikeouts in 39 1/3 innings (13.04 per game). Also, last night Jason Bay had 8 RBI in one game, and has a slugging percentage over .600. Brian Giles is a great player, but that deal is looking awfully good for the Pirates.
Diamondbacks:
"That said, I think they will win the division."
Or not; Bob Brenly was fired yesterday. The pitching staff just melted down, and their bench has been awful; this is a team that always was able to find a Dave Dellucci or Greg Colbrunn or Quinton McCracken or Carlos Baerga to deliver for them, but it didn't happen this year.
Padres:
"Of course, they lost 98 games last year, so even if they were to improve by, say, 20 games, they would probably still fall well short of a playoff spot. The good news is that the Giants and Diamondbacks are getting old fast, the Dodgers didn't do a damn thing during the winter and the Rockies are just hopeless. There is hope in San Diego."
And there is still hope. The Diamondbacks and Rockies are mincemeat, the Dodgers are floundering; the Padres are three games back of the Giants, who are heavily dependent on two players.
Rockies:
"If the Rockies were to ever acquire a good player, Colorado fans might hold a ticker-tape parade. Todd Helton is great, and they have one or two decent pitchers, but the rest of the roster just sucks."
How true.
Of course, I said the same thing about the Devil Rays. But I will go out on a limb and say that there will be no magic in Colorado this summer.
From June 28, 2004:
MC-GRIFF-EY AND 500 HOMERS
Last year I wrote an article about the Hall Of Fame prospects of Rafael Palmeiro and Fred McGriff. I've decided to print it again, with some updates and modifications, because
1) The site needs updating
2) The topic is still relevant, as McGriff nears 500 home runs, and
3) It's easier to reuse old material then to come up with new stuff
* * * * * *
Baseball fans and media and philosophers have milestones on the mind these days. The first is 500 home runs. Ken Griffey Jr. reached the 500 home run mark a few nights ago; it is possible that Fred McGriff will reach 500 home runs as well later this year. Rafael Palmeiro reached the milestone last season, and has now moved past Mickey Mantle on the all-time list, with Mike Schmidt in his sights.
The 500-homer mark has remained an important milestone over the years. Every player with 500 home runs is in the Hall Of Fame, or is going in someday; the same can also be said about the 3000-hit mark and 300 wins. However, with home run totals escalating in recent years, it is likely that there are players who are active who will reach 500 home runs, but will not be elected into the Hall. Though Palmeiro is not yet a lock for the Hall, it is more likely that McGriff will be the first to be excluded.
Just for the record, here are the lifetime numbers of Palmeiro and McGriff, entering this season:
GM AB HT DB TP HR RN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLG SB CS
Palmeiro 2567 9553 2780 543 38 528 1548 1687 1224 1244 291 373 522 93 39
McGriff 2433 8685 2477 438 24 491 1342 1543 1296 1863 285 378 511 72 38
Their rate stats are similar, but Palmeiro is aging much better and is piling up more impressive counting stats. It appears that Palmeiro has been a better player than McGriff, but it's not a clear-cut case.
The argument against Palmeiro is that he has been a star but not a superstar. He has never been the best player at his position; only three times has he been in the Top-10 in the MVP vote, finishing as high as 5th in 1999; he has been selected to only four All-Star teams. Likewise, the main argument against McGriff is that he is just a good slugger who has hung around too long, piling up the career numbers.
Alan Schwarz of ESPN.com states that "Proving why McGriff should buy his own ticket to Cooperstown is easier than keeping Franklin Pierce off Mount Rushmore." To illustrate this point, Schwarz states that, "McGriff has been a very good ballplayer for most of the past 18 years. For seven of them, 1988-94, he was one of the top five offensive forces in baseball... McGriff's combined .935 OPS was the third-best in baseball, behind only Frank Thomas (1.040) and Barry Bonds (.967)." Gee, we wouldn't want a guy like that in the Hall of Fame.
Anyways, it is true that McGriff has been a pretty ordinary player since 1995, with the exception of a fine season in 1999 with Tampa Bay. That's nine years of decline and counting, which you might think was a lot for a Hall Of Famer. Surprisingly, it's not.
From 1971-1980, Willie McCovey had four seasons with 20+ homers, topping out with 29 in 1973. In that ten-year span he never hit higher than .280; five times he batted under .250, including a .213 average in 1972, a .204 average in 1976, a .228 average in 1978 and another .204 average in his final year.
From 1971-1983, Carl Yastrzemski's career was mostly a sustained decline, with the exception of fine seasons in 1974 and 1977. Only once, in that thirteen-year span, did Yaz hit over .300; in that same span, he had three 20-homer seasons.
From 1976-1986, Tony Perez hit .300 only once, that in 183 at bats in 1985. Only once in that eleven-year span did he hit have over 20 home runs and 100 RBI.
There have been others, notably Ernie Banks, who also spent the last decade of their career as an ordinary player. Even the last decade of Eddie Murray's career was short on All-Star calibre seasons. But time is friendly to old ballplayers; the final decade of Carl Yastzremski's career has faded from memory, and Fred McGriff's will too.
But what happens when we compare McGriff's best seasons with Palmeiro's? Raffy still comes out on top, right? Maybe; in a perfect world, McGriff and Palmeiro would be easy to compare. They were born less than a year apart, and both made their debut in 1986.
The problem is that McGriff peaked in his 20's, while Palmeiro has peaked in his 30's. Around 1994-95, home run totals began to explode all around baseball; McGriff turned 30 in 1994, marking the end of his most productive phase. Palmeiro turned 30 in 1995, marking the beginning of his most productive phase.
Palmeiro has a streak of nine consecutive seasons with 38 or more home runs, and he has topped 40 in four seasons. McGriff's career-high in home runs is 37. On the other hand, McGriff has twice led the league in home runs, with Toronto in 1989 and San Diego in 1992. Palmeiro has hit many more home runs over the past decade, but has never led the league. McGriff had his own streak of seven straight seasons of 30 home runs from 1988-94; it doesn't sound like much today, but at the time it was a big deal; he was only the ninth player in baseball history to do it.
My belief is that Palmeiro and McGriff were equals in their prime years; Palmeiro has had an exceptional decline period, which perhaps gives him a better argument for the Hall Of Fame. From 1987-1994, McGriff was the better player. Since 1995, it has been Palmeiro. If McGriff's reputation is suffering, it is because of the failings of human memory; we've simply forgotten what the game was like in 1990. And it's hard for people to accept that McGriff's 35 home runs in 1990 are equally as impressive as Palmeiro's 47 homers in 1999.
As for whether they belong in the Hall Of Fame... I think they both have a case. But if you're going to seriously debate the topic, here's my advice: put aside the 500 home runs for just a moment. From what I have read and heard on the topic, many people have fallen into the trap of believing that 500 home runs is a minimum requirement for a Hall Of Fame first baseman. The reality is that there are 18 first basemen in the Hall; four of them hit 500 home runs, the other 14 didn't, for various reasons. Everyone is so focused on the 500 home runs, you would think that nothing else mattered.
In my opinion, the list of Hall Of Fame first basemen can be split into five groups:
1. The Best
Lou Gehrig
Jimmie Foxx
Willie McCovey
Eddie Murray
Harmon Killebrew
Johnny Mize
Hank Greenberg
2. Borderline Candidates
Tony Perez
Orlando Cepeda
3. The Rest
Bill Terry
George Sisler
Jim Bottomley
Frank Chance
4. 19th Century Dudes
Cap Anson
Jake Beckley
Roger Connor
Dan Brouthers
5. George Kelly
George Kelly
Mark McGwire will be inducted into the Hall, and will take his place along with The Best; so will Jeff Bagwell and, I think, Frank Thomas. Palmeiro and McGriff are, I believe, borderline candidates, along with Perez and Cepeda (and Keith Hernandez and Don Mattingly and maybe a couple of others).
The Rest were all terrific players, but none of them were truly great like Gehrig or Foxx, and all four had short careers. Bill Terry was a Keith Hernandez-type hitter who didn't start to play regularly until he was 28 years old. Sisler and Bottomley both played in Sportsman's Park, a nirvana for left-handed hitters in the 1920's; both stopped hitting at age 30. Chance only had four full seasons, spending more time on managing than on playing.
George Kelly is by far the weakest first baseman in the Hall, and really can't be put in any group except his own.
If you think that only the very best should be in the Hall, then Palmeiro and McGriff probably fall short. I tend to be conservative when it comes to voting for the Hall, and I wasn't in favour of either Perez or Cepeda being inducted. But the reality is that they are now in, and I believe that Palmeiro and McGriff are no less qualified.
Franklin Pierce? With all due respect to Mr. Schwarz, that was a low blow. Eisenhower or Woodrow Wilson, at the very least.
From June 20, 2004:
BEST IN THE BUSINESS
When the Blue Jays were blown out on Opening Day by the Tigers, it was just one bad game. When they were swept by the Tigers, it was just a crappy start to the season; things could only get better. When they were swept by the Orioles and fell to 3-10, the consensus opinion remained optimistic: it could only get better.
But it has never gotten better. It is now the third week of July, and the Jays are now in last place in the division, tied with Baltimore and trailing the Devil Rays. Their three best players, Roy Halladay, Carlos Delgado and Vernon Wells, have all made trips to the disabled list. So have Orlando Hudson, Frank Catalanatto, Chris Woodward and others. Just when you can't think that things can get worse, they do.
But as frustrating as this season has been for Toronto fans, it was made worse by the announcement last week that broadcaster Tom Cheek underwent surgery for a brain tumour.
Even if you don't live in Toronto, you probably have heard Cheek. Moments after Joe Carter hit his Series-winning home run in 1993, Cheek cried, "Touch 'em all, Joe, you'll never hit a bigger home run in your life!" It's tough to be objective in this case, but Cheek's call still ranks as the best I have ever heard by any baseball broadcaster.
The news came a couple of weeks after Cheek's father died. That day, Cheek went to be with his family, bringing to an end his streak of 4306 consecutive regular-season games (and also 41 playoff games). He did the radio broadcast for the Jays' first game in 1977, and hadn't missed one until a few days ago. And then he gets checked out by a doctor, and discovers that he has a brain tumour.
The official press release was a little sketchy on the details. Cheek had surgery, but not all of the tumour could be removed. Initial reports were optimistic, that he might return to the booth this season, but an article in yesterday's Toronto Star was less so.
There are few pairs of words in the English language scarier than "brain tumour". My grandfather died of one a few years ago, and the time between the first symptoms and his death was startlingly short. And once the diagnosis was made... well, there was just a feeling of helplessness, that no amount of treatment or care could do any good. Cheek, at least, has had surgery, with hopefully more to come.
I actually wrote an article about Cheek when the story first broke, then rejected it; there was just too little information, and I felt too uncomfortable about the comparisons to my grandfather. After all, Cheek sounded fine in the booth before he the surgery. But the Star article hit home; Cheek's description of his erratic behaviour and inability to sort out information mirrored my grandfather's early symptoms. Simple tasks just suddenly became a confusing muddle.
By the time I started listening to Blue Jays radio on a regular basis in 1985, Cheek had already been going strong for eight years, and had been joined in the booth by Jerry Howarth. Cheek's original partner was a man named Early Wynn, who I understand once pitched in the majors though I don't know much about his career. But it's been Tom and Jerry ever since I can remember... and there have been many, many, many, many hours of my life spent listening to them.
When non-Torontonians listen to Tom and Jerry for the first time, they are usually a little confused. There really is no "Tom and Jerry"; it's Tom, then Jerry, then Tom, then Jerry again, then Tom again. When one guy is working, the other usually takes off his headset and relaxes. They don't exchange too many words over the course of the broadcast. Both subscribe to the Ernie Harwell school of broadcasting, that one voice can do the job better than the typical play-by-play/colour-man combination.
Tom Cheek has never had a signature call, has apparently never felt the need for one. Perhaps that is why the "Touch 'em all, Joe" call was so great, that he didn't feel the need to regurgitate some catch-phrase and could come up with something totally spontaneous and unique.
Well, as I write this, the Jays have blown a lead in the 8th inning and lost another game. It's just one of those seasons, surely to remembered (by those of us paying attention) as the Season From Hell. I choose to believe, however, that the Baseball Gods are fair and merciful, that for all the bad luck the Jays have encountered this year, they will receive a proportional amount of good luck next season. Hopefully, Tom will be calling the games in the booth.
From May 19, 2004:
BANG THE DRUM LOUDLY
This is the first May update to the site, and somehow it is already the 19th. But this has been an interesting week; the Jays are playing an important homestand, and I've been to three games in the past four nights. I've then come home to watch highlights of both an 18-strikeout game and a perfect game.
The home team continues to play frustrating baseball. They had a chance to dramatically change their fortunes with a four-game sweep of the Red Sox; they beat Curt Schilling on Thursday and Pedro Martinez on Sunday but unfortunately were shut down by Abbott and Costello on Friday and Saturday and had to settle for a series split.
Saturday's game was depressing, a shutout under a closed roof; Sunday was better, with Halladay beating Martinez under a clear sky. I had to keep moving around the stadium, though, to remain in the shade provided by the light standards; it never occurred to me that I would need to bring sunscreen to the SkyDome!
Last night, they beat the Twins. I usually sit in the 500 level, which is a long way from the field but the seats are cheap and you can sit where you want. Some rabid fans have begun bringing a drum to the games, and it is amazing how one simple instrument can completely change the atmosphere of the stadium. I hope it remains a regular fixture at the games.
The drum is loud; I guess I should have known this already, having played in a high school band, but I think our drummer was a little limp. In any case, this is a real thumper that manages to fill up the vast space of the Dome, but doesn't induce headaches. It's fun; when the drum is in action, the atmosphere is better than I have ever seen it at the dome.
(I don't know any of the drummers personally, though given that we all come from a small town like Toronto, I'm sure we must have gone to the same high school or are related by marriage or something.)
It might be hard for non-Torontonians to understand this, but watching the game on television is often preferable to actually going to the dome. One big reason is the food, which is really expensive and really awful. I no longer eat or drink when I go out to the SkyDome, which can be a little trying during a 3+ hour game. But I don't like getting ripped off, and I also don't enjoy the week of fasting required to clean the toxins out of my body.
My other major complaint is that the SkyDome experience has become a 3-hour sales pitch; the ballgame often seems like an afterthought. The Jumbotron is used primarily for commercials and movie trailers, and they're not very particular about what they show (I still have nightmares about the dozens of Pokemon 2000 trailers I witnessed one year). There is also a "host" - whom I would describe as the Bob Saget of baseball - whose job it is to conduct an annoying contest between every inning, giving away crap that no one could possibly want.
(To be fair, he did give away a new car on Opening Day, though he gave it to the wrong guy).
The SkyDome is a pop culture junkyard. In addition to all of the product pitches, a steady streem of cheesy sound effects and sound bites are pumped out of the stadium speakers, creating the same kind of "atmosphere" you might find at a used car lot. The funny thing is, attendance continues to suck - there was hardly anyone there Monday night - and the Jays' response is always to do more of what they are doing, more contests and more product pitches and more soundbites and the like.
Myself, I don't want any product pitches and I don't want a free slice of pizza or a free ice cream bar or anything like that; I just want to watch a ballgame. I'll be very happy if I never hear another peep out of the SkyDome speakers; crowd noise and a drum will do just fine.
* * * * *
OK, that's my SkyDome rant; now, a little more about the game itself.
There is one drawback to the drum: it is a constant reminder for fans that the game on the field is not played with any rhythm. Countless times, the drummer would slowly build to a crescendo, with the fans clapping or shouting in unison, and then... the pitcher steps off of the rubber to pick his nose or make a soft toss to first, or the batter decides he needs to step out and read the label on his bat. The crowd is repeatedly deflated without a pitch being thrown.
There are some people who think that baseball needs a clock to speed up the games. I might suggest that a drummer would do the job; once the drummer hits a specific rhythm, nobody can call time and the pitcher must throw home, and if the drummer ends the drum roll before the pitch is thrown it's an automatic ball.
I'm partially kidding, of course; the point is, I'm much more aware now of how important the rhythm of the game is. Like many fans, I think the games are too long, but I don't know if shortening the games will also improve the rhythm and flow of the action. When a noisy crowd anticipates a pitch and builds to a crescendo, something should happen; there's no excuse for all the players to just stand around not doing anything.
* * * * *
"It's early."
Here in Toronto, we've been hearing that since the disastrous opening day. And every time the team strands runners on base or Carlos Delgado has another rough day at the plate, the same, reassuring mantra is repeated.
Unfortunately, it's not that early; a quarter of the season is done. All-Star ballots are out. Which means that it is time to select an All-Star team, and separate the true stars from the six-week wonders.
American League
CA - Ivan Rodriguez (Tigers are 4th in the league in runs scored!)
1B - Jason Giambi (Best of a weak field)
2B - Alfonso Soriano (By virtue of past performance, gets the edge over on-base machine Belliard)
3B - Melvin Mora (Master Melvin is doing it again! Leads league in OBA)
SS - Michael Young (Outslugging the man he replaced)
OF - Manny Ramirez (Say what you will about Manny, nothing distracts him from his hitting)
OF - Carlos Beltran (Great offense, defense)
OF - Vladimir Guerrero (GREAT free agent signing)
National League
CA - Paul Lo Duca (Good bat, better glove than Piazza)
1B - Jim Thome (Best of a very strong field)
2B - Mark Loretta (Marcus Giles is the best but broke his collarbone)
3B - Mike Lowell (So much for a career year in 2003)
SS - Jack Wilson (A true six-week wonder, but there's just no one close to him)
OF - Barry Bonds (Mired in a slump; OPS has dropped to 1.439)
OF - Adam Dunn (Having the season we all expected him to have)
OF - Bobby Abreu (Still looking for his first All-Star appearance)
All Apologies: Lance Berkman, Jorge Posada, Mike Piazza, Scott Rolen, Adrian Beltre, Todd Helton, Ronnie Belliard, Orlando Hudson, Johnny Estrada, Lyle Overbay, Craig Wilson, Sean Casey, Miguel Tejada
From April 29, 2004:
TALE OF TWO MANAGERS
A tale of two managers...
The White Sox blew a four-run lead in the 9th inning on Opening Day. After the game, manager Ozzie Guillen told his players to go out and get drunk and forget about it.
If they took his advice, then some of the Sox may need to attend a group session of Alcoholics Anonymous soon. Three nights ago, they entered the 9th inning trailing Tampa Bay by two runs, and came back and won. The next night, they blew a two-run lead late in the game and lost in 10 innings. Yesterday afternoon, they entered the 9th trailing by four runs, and scored five runs to win.
They've been doing this on a regular basis, it seems. For exmaple, on April 14 they blew an 8-5 lead in the 9th inning, then scored two runs in the bottom of the inning to beat KC 10-9. They have played in eight one-run games, which leads the American League, and have won seven of them.
They have been exciting to watch on the field, and have also been great fun off the field, thanks to the incomparable Guillen. And they are winning more than they are losing, so far.
I hope someone in Chicago is keeping a compendium of Ozzie Guillen quotes; it should be an impressive collection by the end of the season. I fear that I've already let it get away from me, and my attempts at doing some back research have been stunted by every damn news site demanding that I register with them. Anyways, here's a start:
"If we win, I'll own this town. Believe me. People here expect to win. They don't care about what you did in the past."
"My closer is Billy Koch. But if the matchup is better for Marte, I'll use him."
"I go with my gut feeling. Today, I feel better with Marte because of all the left-handed hitters in the lineup. You guys would be critical if I didn't bring him in and we didn't get the job done. I go by my gut feeling so I can sleep."
"Oh, am I going to get this every night? Whoever I pitch in the ninth inning, he will be the closer."
"Bad thing about it, when I pull the trigger, I have to make sure I hit it right in the eyeballs. If not, I'll be wrong. I know I will be second-guessed by somebody. That's part of my job. Especially in Chicago, especially with the White Sox."
"You guys ask me about my closer again, and I'm going to be the closer."
"I'm not the type who will say what you want to hear."
"When you win the game with a walk by Uribe, it's like winning a game with a walk by Ozzie."
"For a ballclub, these wins are very emotional. For me, I might die before this thing is over."
"A lot of people don't give Frank the credit he should get. A lot of people forgot quick in this town that he was the MVP two times. A lot of people talk about Moises Alou more than Frank. You know, Moises is over here for two days. Now Prior... they talk about Kerry Wood.
"They don't talk about Thomas. Frank Thomas is Michael Jordan... because Sammy was here after he was. I was looking in the paper this morning and saw the `Prior Watch.' You know, it's nothing against the kid, but come on...
"When he was hurt for (three) days, they did not have the `Frank Thomas Watch' in the paper. Frank is way better than Prior. Frank has done more things for this town than Prior. I give all the respect to Mark, don't take me wrong. But, my God..."
"You can lose 100 games with guys who stick together, but your chances of winning 100 are much better."
"I asked Danny Wright if he had tried to hit their guy on purpose, and he said no."
"My English is broke. My best friend is Baines, and he never talks."
"I can manage, I guess."
And speaking of managers... here in Toronto, I think a dark cloud has descended upon the Blue Jay clubhouse. I may be overreacting to a pair of losses, but it seems that within the past 30 hours, Carlos Tosca's chances of lasting until the All-Star Break have dropped dramatically.
Tuesday night, the Jays had a 4-1 lead going into the 8th, with Miguel Batista throwing a solid game. Batista looked winded in the 7th inning, but Tosca had him start the 8th. Batista walked the leadoff batter, and was pulled; the Twins scored two runs that inning and two more in the 9th for the win.
After the game, GM J.P. Ricciardi went on a local radio station and questiond why Batista started the 8th. Today, he clarified his comments, saying that he was't criticizing his manager, but was merely wondering aloud. Whatever. J.P. is a bit of a poker player, and it's always hard to know what he is thinking, but I suspect he thought about that at bat for the rest of the evening.
Of course, anyone paying attention to the Jays knows why Batista started the 8th. Tosca is obsessed with matchups. He wanted to bring Kerry Ligtenberg into the game, but Ligtenberg has a large platoon differential and left-hander Corey Koskie was leading off. Tosca left Batista in to face the one left-handed hitter.
Yesterday afternoon, Tosca announced that Terry Adams was his closer. At night, the Jays played just a horrible game against the Twins, losing 9-5. The two highlights were a Jays comeback in the 8th, in which they scored four runs and tied the game 5-5, and a collapse in the bottom of the inning. The Twins scored four runs of their own, two of them on wild pitches by the new closer, Adams.
(It should also be noted that the Twins played a horrible game as well, yet still won. The Twinkies played lousy defense the entire series, and the pitching was mediocre, and they were just sloppy all around. But holy smokes, their bats are booming. Did Ron Gardenhire read Moneyball?)
Getting outplayed is bad enough, but it can be infuriating when the manager messes up too. With the game tied, a runner on second and one out, Tosca elected to intentionally walk Cristian Guzman. The Jays walked the worst hitter in the Twins' lineup; the next batter, pinch-hitter Mike Ryan (who is currently hitting .435) singled, and then it was back to Shannon Stewart and the top of the order. And then all hell broke loose.
OK, so the Jays' bullpen has stunk the past two games; Tosca can't throw the ball for them. He also can't swing the bats; the Jays hit into three double plays last night, and haven't hit a home run since Saturday. But we still need to evaluate managers on the decisions they make, and Tosca consistently and repeatedly makes the same mistakes.
Tosca doesn't want my advice, but he's going to get it anyways. Here is Brett's Guide to Managing a Bullpen:
Ockham's Razor, also called the Rule of Parsimony, says that you should never make more assumptions than necessary. Managing a bullpen is similar; you should never make more pitching changes than are necessary. Because he is obsessed with matchups, however, Tosca will often use four or five relievers in a game when he really doesn't have to.
The matchup game is a losing proposition. The slight advantage you might gain from matching up pitchers and hitters is easily offset by the danger that the guy you are bringing into the game won't have his good stuff. That said, I propose three simple rules for Tosca to follow:
1) Never take out a pitcher who is strong and throwing strikes, just for the sake of a better matchup. Tosca likes to do this.
2) Never leave in a pitcher who is tried or struggling with his control, just for the sake of a better matchup. Tosca did it with Batista.
3) Never, ever give an intentional walk to the worst hitter on the other team, in any situation.
Of course, Tosca doesn't have to follow my rules; he can manage however he wants. Problem is, it's not working. It didn't work last year, when the Jays' staff struggled, and it hasn't worked this year with a revamped bullpen. Right now, Tosca is about the only person in Toronto who thinks he knows how to manage a pitching staff; even the General Manager is confused.
Tosca does do good things; he has assembled a good group of coaches, and the offense thrived under his management last year. I admired the way he got tossed out of last Thursday's game, for no particular reason except that he couldn't stand to watch the team play any more. Seriously, read his lips; he was telling the umpire "Throw me out of the goddamned game because my team sucks and I need to get them fired up". And it worked, for a couple of days.
And things will get better, once Vernon Wells stops swinging at sliders a foot outside, and Josh Phelps stops guessing fastball on every pitch. If Tosca would stop mucking around with his bullpen, he might have a long-term future.
But my suspicion is that Tosca was just an interim guy in J.P. Ricciardi's plans. He didn't arrive in Toronto with J.P.; he was Buck Martinez' third base coach, and took over after Buck was fired. Ricciardi has pegged 2005 as the year he wants this team to seriously contend, and my guess is that he will bring in his guy to manage the team. I don't know if Tosca has a chance to lead the team next year, but if he does, it is likely dwindling.
From April 23, 2004:
HIT THE BALL, GOOD THINGS MIGHT HAPPEN
There is a curious divide among baseball fans these days. Those who love statistical analysis think that it is the best objective measure of what happens on the field. Others insist that there are too many human intangibles that statistics cannot measure. Both arguments, of course, have some truth to them, as was the case in Toronto's first home win of the season. Down 3-1 with Curt Schilling on the mound, the Jays were saved by some good old fashioned sabermetrics, and also a conflict between a pitcher and his manager.
The Jays have the worst offence in the league, and didn't figure to mount a comeback against Schilling. But all was not lost. Looking at the box score, I noticed that Schilling only had three strikeouts through six innings; in a rare moment of clarity, I realized that the Jays had a chance to benefit from some DIPS magic. In other words, if they could just keep making contact, they were bound to find some holes in the porous Boston defense.
Schilling began the 7th with two strikeouts; not good. But sure enough, Orlando Hudson hit a single that Gabe Kapler played into a triple; that was followed by a Chris Gomez bloop single that barely eluded Mark Bellhorn, then a bloop single to left by Howie Clark and a line drive single by Frank Catalanotto to tie the game.
In the 8th, Schilling was back out on the mound, despite having thrown 104 pitches; Francona apparently decided to leave him in the game, after Curt threw a tantrum in his last start when he was taken out. Carlos Delgado beat the shift with a hard single, then Hinske found a hole with a ground ball single, Hudson worked a walk, and with two out, Gomez(!) knocked Schilling's 123rd pitch out of the park for a grand slam.
Most of the hits that Schilling surrendered in the 7th and 8th innings could have been fielded had they been a couple of feet or a couple of inches to the left or right. But research into DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics) suggests that pitchers have very little control over balls in play, that luck and defence decide whether a batted ball is turned into an out.
Sure enough, Schilling was fine when he was getting the strikeouts - but he didn't get as many as he usually does, and his luck turned against him late in the game. And then he ran out of gas, walking Hudson and serving up the home run while his fielders stood helpless and watched.
So the Jays won the game and now have a 1-8 record at home. Woo-hoo. As for the Red Sox... wasn't Grady Little fired because he left his ace pitcher in the game too long? Is this supposed to be an improvement?
Elsewhere in the league, the Detroit Tigers still have a winning record after 16 games. What is even more amazing is that they are second in the league in runs scored, with 95. Last year, they did not score their 95th run until May 7, in their 36th game of the season. The Tigers gambled on four veteran, injury prone players during the offseason - Pudge Rodriguez, Rondell White, Carlos Guillen and Fernando Vina. Vina has struggled, but the other three have been fantastic.
They are also getting great performances from guys like Alex Sanchez and Brandon Inge. I expect that it won't be long before the veterans start getting hurt, and Inge turns back into a pumpkin. On the other hand, their best hitter, Dmitri Young, has batted only four times this season, and may return just in time to pick up the slack. However the season ends, the Tiger renaissance has been a great story.
The league leaders in runs scored are, predictably, the Minnesota Twins. The Twins over the past few years have collected an interesting collection of young outfielders with decent sticks, including Bobby Kielty, Mike Cuddyer, Mike Restovich, Lew Ford, Mike Ryan, Dustan Mohr and others. But they haven't made room for them in the lineup; Kielty and Mohr were able to escape, while the others are now entering their mid-to-late 20's, and are stuck on either the bench or in Triple-A.
This year, Restovich is still in the minors, hitting home runs; Ryan has barely played, though Cuddyer has had a few at bats. They have all lost playing time to Jose Offerman, of all people. But there is one great story in the Twin Cities: Torii Hunter got hurt, and his replacement, Lew Ford, is batting .450 with three homers and 15 RBI in ten games. Ford is 27 years old, has done nothing but hit in the minor leagues but has never gotten a chance; Hunter will get his job back, but hopefully, this hot streak will guarantee Ford a future somewhere.
Meanwhile, the Twins are leading the league in runs scored because of Ford, and also because of ridiculous performances from guys like Offerman and Doug Mientkiewicz and Henry Blanco. Those guys will cool off, but even if they do, the Twins are still in solid shape; super-prospect Justin Morneau is pounding the snot out of AAA pitchers and will be more than ready to step in once Offerman bites the dust. And the other super-prospect, Joe Mauer, looked great before he got hurt, and will be back soon.
The White Sox have also been good, not to mention extremely entertaining. Watching Billy Koch pitch in the 9th inning is like watching a trapeze artist who isn't using a net. Maybe, just maybe, the AL Central won't suck as bad as we thought it would.
From April 17, 2004:
WHAT'S THE NAME OF THIS WEBSITE?
The first ten games of the 2004 season are in the books. and fans up here in Toronto are going crazy over their hockey team. They don't seem to be paying much attention to the baseball team, and that's a good thing, because the Jays have sucked huge. Last night they got waxed 11-2 by the Orioles.
Elsewhere around the league, some neat stuff is going on. The Royals and White Sox played a couple of crazy series... no, they played a couple of insane series... no, they played a pair of certifiably psychotic series. But they were great fun, I caught quite a few innings over the web; it is also fun to compare the great Denny Matthews on the Royals broadcasts with the unbelievably awful Hawk Harrelson on the Sox broadcasts.
I admit that I am pretty happy with MLB.TV, it seems to work pretty well although the picture quality still needs improvements. What I can't figure out is why GameDay is so terrible; I would think that it would be the easier of the two services to deliver. But the pitch-by-pitch accounts of what is happening on the field are frequently delayed and are often incorrect. Unfortunately, similar services offered by ESPN and SI don't work on my Mac at work.
I missed last night's Cubs/Reds game, the 11-10 affair that the Cubs won in the ninth with a pair of home runs. Ramon Martinez doubled in the 7th inning, but was called out for batting out of turn. Apparently, Dusty Baker pulled a double switch, but the umpire didn't know it; one or the other was asleep at the switch. Dusty went berzerk and was ejected. Like I said, I missed the game but watched the final three innings on MLB's archived webcast, good fun.
Last night, the Mets had a 2-0 lead through seven innings, with Tom Glavine throwing a one-hit shutout. Glavine was taken out of the game after 78 pitches, and the Mets' bullpen coughed up seven runs to the powerhouse Pirates. Is Art Howe saving Glavine for September? Does he think he will be managing this team in September?
Almost everything has gone right for the defending World Champions. The young pitchers have been healthy and great; they shut out the Expos in four straight games. The kids, Cabrera and Choi, have been the pounding the ball. With the Braves scuffling and the Phillies tanking, the Marlins have had a dreamy start to the year. [48 hours later: OK, so the Marlins just went out and got swept by the Braves, while the Phillies swept the Expos. The Expos have scored 19 runs this year, while Scott Rolen has 23 RBI.]
The Red Sox won their first meeting with the Yankees last night, with Tim Wakefield getting revenge against the Bombers. I've mentioned this before, but I think MLB is doing its best to destroy this great rivalry; 19 games every season is just far too many. Eventually, fans on both sides are going to get sick of all these games and become less passionate about them; then the Red Sox will have to move to the National League to perk up interest again.
The Jays are trying to play themselves out of contention in the East, but fortunately neither the Red Sox nor the Yankees has had a strong start. These three teams will play a boatload of games against each other this year, treating fans to some of the worst defense in baseball:
1) The Yankees have to choose between Giambi at first and Lofton in centre, or Travis Lee at first and Bernie Williams in centre. I would be worried about the latter scenario; Williams can barely play the outfield anymore, while Matsui and Sheffield are pretty much stationary pylons.
And, oh yeah, Derek Jeter is still playing shortstop. Badly. He made a key error in last night's game against the Sox; my local paper called it a miscue by the "normally reliable Jeter", as in, "reliably lets ground balls go through him".
2) Of course, as bad as the Yankees' outfield might be, nothing is worse than the Ramirez-Kapler-Millar outfield that the Red Sox had to field against the Blue Jays after Johnny Damon hurt his foot. The dormant Blue Jay offense started pounding one double after another with that trio in the field.
On the plus side, Pokey Reese has improved Boston's infield defense, though he is batting a Pokish .192.
3) Before the season, I thought the Blue Jays made the right decision by giving Chris Woodward another chance at shortstop, but now I think I was wrong. In last night's game, he was playing short like he had lead weights in his feet.
With the score 1-0, Luis Matos bounced an RBI single up the middle. Woodward, who was shaded near second base, dove for the ball but came up short by about two feet. I can't believe that a major league shortstop could not stop that ball, let alone miss it so badly. Woodward is also batting .170; a couple more weeks of this, and they will have to make Chris Gomez the regular.
To make things worse, Eric Hinske appears to have made no improvements defensively at third base. The left side of the Jays' infield is a disaster.
From April 8, 2004:
THE FIRST THREE DAYS
After going out to the SkyDome and watching the Jays' brutal opening game on Monday, I wrote that things could only get better for the home team. It was a stupid thing to write, because things have, of course, gotten much worse. Three awful games, and a sweep at the hands of the Tigers. Now, fans in Detroit and Toronto are scratching their heads, wondering whether the Tigers were that good or the Jays were that awful.
(No, fans in Toronto and Detroit are really wondering about the possibility of the Leafs and Red Wings in the Stanley Cup, but that's another story)
In the bottom of the 5th inning of Wednesday's game, the Jays were down 6-3, and Chris Woodward drew a leadoff walk. For some reason, the first thing that popped into my head was that the next hitter, Kevin Cash, should drop a bunt. I'm not usually not a big fan of the sacrifice bunt, especially when trailing by three runs, but a leadoff walk to the #8 hitter seemed like a Godsend and I desperately wanted to avoid the double play.
Unfortunately, my instincts were right: Cash grounded into a double play about 30 seconds later. I usually avoid nitpicking over managerial decisions (or non-decisions), but jeez, I think Carlos Tosca needs to wake up and realize that the season has started and that his team is drowning. It was the worst possible outcome, and the most predictable, too; a manager can't sit on his hands and watch it happen.
Yes, the Jays were trailing by three runs. And when you drop a sacrifice bunt, you're basically playing for one run. But given the early struggles of the Jays' lineup, and given that Cash is a career .142 hitter, one run is probably all you can reasonably expect in that situation. He's also a slowwwww moving vehicle and a prime double play candidate. Tosca had to try something in that situation, a bunt or hit-and-run or whatever. I prefer a bunt down the third base line, because Eric Munson is a terrible third baseman and might mess it up.
Tonight, the Leafs begin their playoff run; the Jays have already been banished to the back of the sports section, and only 13,000 fans showed up for last night's game. Such is the reality of baseball in Toronto.
(Last season, the Jays got whupped in their opening series by the Yankees, though the Bombers lost Derek Jeter in a baserunning accident. This year, some thing; the Tigers gave the Jays a whupping, but Dmitri Young broke his fibula while trying to break up a double play (which the Jays turned). I know fans put a lot of stock in aggressive baserunning, but it's a long, 162-game season; sometimes, it's better just to slow down and avoid putting your body at risk.)
Elsewhere... well, fortunately, the Devil Rays took a couple of games from the Yankees. The Bombers won today, though; I watched a bit of the game, and I still can't believe that anybody could ever hit Kevin Brown when he's on his game, his stuff was nastier than hell.
The Indians and Twins played two great extra-inning games, the Twins winning both. The second one went 15 innings, after Jacques Jones tied it with two outs in the ninth with a two-run homer. Indians reliever Jake Westbrook spent four innings pitching himself into tight jams and then pitching out of them until the Twinkies finally got him in the 15th. The Twins, however, suffered three injuries to key players, a rough price to pay for a win.
One more thing about Wednesday's game: Jays' starter Pat Hentgen gave up six runs, only two earned. Yeah, the Jays' fielders were almost as bad as their hitters. But in the second inning, Hentgen hit a batter, walked a batter, and served up a three run homer - yet was charged with zero earned runs. Sure, Delgado's error extended the inning, but there's no defense against walks or home runs; Hentgen is still partly responsible for what happened in that inning.
The way in which we allocate earned and unearned runs simply does not reflect what goes on on the field. The defense was bad, but Hentgen was leaving no room for error.
From April 6, 2004:
OPENING DAY
Another opening day is in the books. Up here in Toronto, a blast of arctic wind struck the city after about three weeks of rain; the SkyDome was closed, and though 99% of the time I prefer the roof open, I have to admit that the wind chill was pretty raw today. A nice crowd came out and watched the home team play just a horrible game against the revamped Tigers; the pitching was mediocre, the defense was weak, and the hitters were the worst of the lot. Round One for Detroit.
(Off the field, the Jays didn't do so well, either. They gave away a car to a lucky fan, which is fine except they gave it to the wrong guy, then after realizing the mistake gave it so someone else. It's not fun watching grown men cry.)
So anyways, the best thing you can say about the Jays' first game is that it can only get better. If you need a silver lining, I might argue that the manner in which the Jays lost - a 7-0 blowout - is the best way to go. Psychologically, it has to be better than blowing a four-run lead in the ninth (hello White Sox!). If Halladay had to make a bad start and the hitters and fielders had to suck then they may as well all do it in the same game.
(OK, I just got my copy of today's Toronto Star, and Richard Griffin argues that we saw "most of the predicted team deficiencies coming to the surface", which I guess shouldn't be surprising since teams rarely lose when they keep their deficiencies hidden. Griffin also claims that the Jays are going to have problems because the Tigers, Devil Rays, Orioles, Angels and Rangers have all made improvments, the implication being, I guess, that they have improved enough to beat Toronto but not Boston or New York or each other.)
It's always an added bonus when you are with a good crowd. There was a Tigers fan sitting nearby who could be loud and obnoxious when he wanted to be, but carried the kind of humility required when your team loses 119 games. He and some sharp-witted Blue Jay fans traded zingers for most of the game, and it was all good natured fun. And I have to admit that the Tigers' lineup is a lot scarier with the additions of Pudge Rodriguez and Rondell White, among others. I just wonder what they are going to do when they all get hurt.
On the weekend, I broke down and bought MLB's web TV & radio package. I hate giving more money to MLB than they deserve, but what the hell; I have always been fascinated by the internet, I work the internet, so I want to see where MLB is with its web offerings. I watched the Red Sox get whupped by the Orioles on Sunday night, then watched part of the Astros-Giants game on Monday, including Barry Bonds' monster three-run, game-tying homer, which I guess makes it worth the money.
(All through spring training, I heard and read stories that Barry Bonds had showed up to camp a lot smaller, the insinuation being that he had stopped taking steroids. Apparently, those people just had him confused with Neifi Perez.)
The quality of MLB.TV is a lot like picking up UHF on rabbit ears; not great, but watchable. It's a little fuzzy and blocks tend to form when there is a lot of movement. The sound is very clear, though. After two days, I haven't had any connection problems, which is a bonus. I have my computer plugged into my receiver, so I was able to watch the games on television, and not just the computer screen.
I'm interested to see where this will all go. Given that bandwidth is increasing and computers are becoming more powerful and more integrated with home theatre systems, MLB will soon be able to offer all of its games at high-quality resolution over the web. In a perfect world, those games would be available through subscription and commercial free; the games would also be faster, without the commercial delays between each inning.
I recognize the reality, that the games will require a subscription fee, AND will still have commercial delays. As a fan, I'm more than willing to pay to watch commercial-free games — I'll pay double, maybe more, than what I'm paying now. But I'm afraid that, despite revolutionary technology and consumer demand, we'll always be stuck with commercials.
(On the good side, I saw the funniest electoral campaign ad I've ever seen. The Republicans say that John Kerry will raise gasoline taxes, and claim that this will cause fewer Americans to drive. I'm not an American, but I gotta think that given all of the problems facing the U.S.A., "fewer Americans driving" has got to be pretty far down on the list.)
Anything else interesting yesterday? Phil Nevin hit a grand slam, Shannon Stewart hit a walkoff home run in the bottom of the 11th. Roy Oswalt looked awesome until he was bombed by Bonds; C.C. Sabathia looked awesome before hs bullpen self-destructed. Jose Mesa got a save... against the Phillies!
And the White Sox... that's another nice thing about MLB.TV, I missed the game but I get to replay that entire inning! I think I saw the first strands of grey hair sprout on Ozzie Guillen's head. And as for the TV guys, Ken Harrelson and Darrin Jackson, one moment they sounded like two incoherent drunk guys at a wedding, the next moment they sounded like the bride had just caught her husband cheating with her sister, and a moment later sounded like the groom had been shot dead.
The web is marvellous, I just hope MLB doesn't screw it up. On to Day Two.
From February 17, 2004:
WHO'S ON THIRD?
It has been a frosty week up here in Toronto. The temperature took a steep dive a couple of days ago, the government is embroiled in a scandal in which it can't extract itself, the Leafs' star goaltender is injured, and the Blue Jays... well, nothing much has changed for them, except that the Yankees have acquired Alex Rodriguez.
Most papers and media outlets here in the city have been reporting that the Yankees have acquired the best player in baseball. I understand the argument, I think there is a decent chance that A-Rod will be the best in 2004, but for now Barry Bonds still holds that title. You might argue that A-Rod is the best all-around player in the league; he does more things better than Bonds does. But the two things that Bonds still does well, hitting for power and getting on base, he does so much better than anyone else that they make up for his weaknesses.
It's a bit like comparing a student who gets straight A's, with another student who gets a lot of C's and D's, but is a prodigy in math and science. Who's the better student?
The initial reports are suggesting that A-Rod will play third base while Jeter will play short. On behalf of Blue Jay fans, I can say that we can only dare to dream. This would be like moving Torii Hunter to left field so that Ben Grieve can play centre. It won't happen — A-Rod will be the shortstop. He's saying all the right things right now about moving to third, but I expect to hear the same stuff from Jeter in spring training.
Just ask yourself: why would Jeter even want to play shortstop? He's been getting an easy ride the past few years; his range has been in steep decline, to the poinst where he is among the weakest defensive shortstops in the league. But outside of small sabermetric communities he rarely gets criticized for his defense. Fox Sports just keeps replaying his flip to home plate against Oakland while Tim McCarver raves about how great defensively he is.
But the mainstream media is catching on, especially after the Yankees' defensive debacle against the Marlins in the last years World Series. Starting in April, everyone — even Fox —is going to have to acknowledge that Jeter will be the second-best defensive shortstop in the Yankees infield. Every play he makes will be scrutinized — or, more importantly, every play he doesn't make.
Earlier in the winter, the Yankees acquired Kevin Brown, who is the most extreme ground ball pitcher in the league; every time it is Brown's turn to pitch, questions are going to be asked about the quality of the infield defense behind him. Why would Jeter even want that? If he moves, then everyone shuts up and there's no scrutiny at all. It's an easy decision.
As for the Blue Jays... quite honestly, it doesn't change their outlook much. If A-Rod plays like he did last year, he probably improves the Yankees by 1-2 games; if he plays like he did in 2002, it's 3-4 games. So unless the Jays were planning on finishing a game or two ahead of the Yankees in the standings this season, it won't matter much. The best thing for the Jays is for the Yankees to turn into a juggernaut and beat the crap out of Boston (of course, the Jays also have 19 games against the Bombers... but in a quirk of the schedule, all of those games are after the All-Star break. Maybe the Yankees will be cooling their heels by then).
There has also been a lot teeth-gnashing about the unfair financial advantage that the Yankees have over other teams. But even from a Toronto perspective, a strong Yankee team is essential for baseball's success. I happen to think the last three years have turned out just about perfect for the game, a bit of a "mini-golden-era". The Yankees spend hundreds of millions of dollars on salaries, buy up all the best players — and then another team wins the championship. What could be better than that?
OK, I can think of one thing that would be better. Traditionalists will hate me for suggesting this, but baseball needs some realignment. Specifically, we need the Red Sox in the National League. The greatest rivalry of my lifetime has been the Lakers-Celtics rivalry in the 1980's that revitalized the NBA. For the foreseeable future, the two greatest rivals in baseball are going to be the Yankees and Red Sox — so why the hell are they in the same division?
If I were the Commissioner, I would (1) scrap interleague play in its present form, and just have complete integration of the two leagues. Every team plays every other team, just like they do in the NBA, NHL and NFL. And (2), I would move the Red Sox to the NL East, move the Tigers to the AL East where they belong, move the Brewers back to the AL Central, and then move the Portland/Las Vegas Expos to the AL West. Six divisions, five teams in every division, the two greatest rivals in opposite leagues.
Having the Yankees and Red Sox playing each other 19 times every season is too much. I know there is a logic behind "giving the fans what they want" but sometimes there is too much of a good thing. Those games become less special if there are too many of them; I believe that the unbalanced schedule came into play about the same time that ABC started showing Who Wants To Be a Millionaire every night, and we know how well that worked out. Baseball should not be diluting its greatest rivalry with too many matchups.
Meanwhile, there are reports that Greg Maddux is going to sign with the Yankees, though no one seems to be believing them. I really think Maddux should come to Toronto; we've got a nice little team here, we've got Greg Maddux Jr. (Halladay), we've got some fine golf courses. What more could he want?
From February 1, 2004:
TOUGH SAVES
In 2003, Eric Gagne had one of the most dominant seasons that any closer has ever had; he saved 55 games without a single blown save, and his strikeout rate (14.92 K's per nine innings) was historic. He handily won the NL Cy Young Award.
There are some people who say that a starting pitcher should always win the Cy Young Award, and I agree to some extent. If either Randy Johnson or Curt Schilling had the season they had last year, then they would have deserved the award. But no National League starter was that dominant, though Jason Schmidt and Mark Prior were close.
So, how valuable was Gagne, really? There is no easy answer; the closer's role has changed dramatically over the past 40 years. Pitchers like Dan Quisenberry and Bruce Sutter often had to fill the role of both closer and setup man, and were counted upon to retire both right-handed and left-handed hitters. Gagne is a more effective pitcher, but in a much more limited role.
A few years ago, STATS introduced three new Save definitions, recognizing that not all save situations are equal. They are called Easy, Tough and Regular Saves.
Easy
: the first batter faced is not tying run, and he pitches one inning or less
Tough
: the pitcher enters the game with the tying run on base
Regular
: everything else
These new definitions have received a small measure of acceptance; Tough Saves have been added to the formula used by the Rolaids Relief Awards (a Tough Save is worth an extra point). This year, Gagne had only two Tough Saves. Mariano Rivera led the majors, with five.
The previous NL closer to win the Cy Young Award was Mark Davis in 1989. That year, Davis saved 44 games, including 22 Tough Saves. I have always thought that that was a mind-boggling number, when you consider that today's closers only face a handful of "tough save" situations all year.
Here are some basic numbers:
WN LS GM SV BS IP HT BB SO ERA
Davis 4 3 70 44 4 92.7 66 31 92 1.85
Gagne 2 3 77 55 0 82.3 37 20 137 1.20
Mark Davis was great in 1989, but Gagne's WHIP was 56% better. A strikeout:walk ratio of 2.5:1 is usually considered to be excellent, but Gagne had a 2.5:1 strikeout:baserunner ratio. Davis threw more innings while appearing in fewer games.
And Davis had all of those "Tough Saves". Here are some short summaries of all 22 Tough Saves that Davis had in '89, made possible by the invaluable Retrosheet.org:
April 5
(8th Inning) Davis came on to pitch with Ernest Riles on second base and one out, with the score 4-3. He struck out Kirt Manwaring and Robby Thompson, then pitched a perfect ninth.
April 9
(8th Inning) With the score 5-4, Davis came on to pitch with Kevin Bass on first base and nobody out. Greg Gross reached on an error, but Ken Caminiti hit into a double play, and Bass was thrown out at home plate on the same play. Davis then pitched a scoreless ninth.
April 19
(8th Inning) Davis replaced Eric Show with two out and Kevin Mitchell on first, and the score 4-3. He gave up a double, but struck out Chris Speier to get out of the inning. He pitched a scoreless ninth.
April 25
(9th Inning) Eric Show took a shutout into the 9th, the score 1-0. Bobby Bonilla reached on an error to lead off the inning. Davis came in, struck out Barry Bonds then got two groundouts.
April 29
(7th Inning) Davis came in with the score 3-2, runners on 1st and 2nd, nobody out. A sac bunt moved the runners over. Davis then made an error, allowing Ryne Sandberg to reach 1st, but the runner at 3rd did not score. With the bases loaded, Andre Dawson hit into a double play.
The Pades scored two runs in the top of the 8th. Davis pitched the final two innings, giving up a couple of runs but hanging on to win 5-4.
May 6
(8th Inning) The Padres had a 4-2 lead. Davis came in with runners on 1st and 2nd, one out. R. J. Reynolds ended the inning by hitting into a double play. Davis pitched a scoreless ninth.
May 7
(9th Inning) The Padres had a 3-1 lead; starter Ed Whitson came out to pitch in the 9th, got the first out, but then gave up two singles. Davis came in and struck out two pinch hitters for the save.
May 23
(9th Inning) Eric Show took a 3-1 lead into the 9th; he got a couple of outs, but an error and a single put the tying run on base. Davis came in, gave up on RBI single but got a pop out to end the game.
May 25
(8th Inning) The Padres had a 2-1 lead over the Mets, with two out in the 8th and a runner on 1st. Davis came in to strike out Darryl Strawberry, then pitched a scoreless ninth.
May 29
(9th Inning) Bruce Hurst took a shutout into the 9th, leading 1-0. He got two outs, but gave up a single and a walk. Davis got a groundout to end the game.
June 14
(9th Inning) The Padres had a 4-2 lead in the 9th. Eric Show got the first out, then gave up two singles. Davis came in and got the last two outs.
June 28
(8th Inning) One of Davis' best games. The Padres had a 2-1 lead, but the Dodgers had the bases loaded in the 8th with one out. Davis came in and struck out Mickey Hatcher and Mariano Duncan, then pitched a scoreless ninth.
July 16
(8th Inning) The Padres had a 4-3 lead. Davis came in with a runner on 2nd, one out; he walked Andre Dawson but got two outs, then pitched a scoreless 9th.
August 3
(9th Inning) Davis came into the game with two outs in the 9th in a 6-5 game, runners on first and third. He struck out Jeff Treadway.
August 11
(8th Inning) With the score 2-0, Davis came on in the 8th with runners on 1st and 2nd, one out. He got a strikeout and a flyout, then pitched a scoreless ninth.
August 20
(7th Inning) The Padres had a 2-1 lead in the 7th; the Expos had runners on 1st and 2nd with two out. Davis got the final out; the Padres scored three runs in the top of the eighth, and Davis pitched the final two innings.
September 3
(7th Inning) The Padres had a 3-2 lead in the 7th, runners on first and third and two out. Davis came in and got the last out; the Padres scored five in the next inning to pad the lead, and Davis pitched the final two innings.
September 4
(9th Inning) Two outs in the 9th, the score 10-9. Davis comes in with a runner on first, gets the final out.
September 5
(9th Inning) Two outs in the 9th, the score 3-2, runner on first. Davis comes in, gets a force out to end the game.
September 8
(8th Inning) 1-0 Padres in the 8th; Davis came on with a runner on 2nd, one out. He struck out Willie Randolph and Eddie Murray, then pitched a scoreless ninth. The final score was 1-0; it was Davis' 6th save in seven games.
September 24
(8th Inning) A 1-0 game, two outs in the 8th, the Dodgers had runners on 1st and 2nd. Davis got the final out, then pitched a scoreless 9th, for another 1-0 victory over Los Angeles.
September 26
(7th Inning) The score was 2-1, the Reds had a runner on 1st with two out. Davis came in and got a strikeout, then pitched the final two innings for a 3-1 victory.
A closer look reveals two obvious reasons why Davis had so many Tough Saves; one, he often pitched more than one inning. In several games, manager Jack McKeon brought him in as early as the 7th inning and let him finish.
Also, McKeon would often start the 9th inning with someone other than his closer pitching. Davis had eight Tough Saves in games in which another pitcher started the ninth, then Davis had to come in and mop up the mess. Today, most managers would not fool around; Gagne just starts the ninth and that's it.
Was Davis overworked? Probably; on Sept. 3, for example, Davis came in to pitch the 7th with the score 3-2. He got out of the inning, then the Padres scored five in the eighth to make the score 8-2. There was no reason for Davis to pitch the final two innings, except to qualify for the save.
Davis' meltdown the following season with Kansas City is sometimes blamed on his overuse the year before. But when he was with the Royals, manager John Wathan only used him to start the 9th inning with a lead. He had a couple of bad games, and was replaced by Jeff Montgomery. With the Padres, Davis could often count on being brought into the game in the middle of an inning, and didn't have to worry about a bad outing. Maybe that was his comfort zone. The Royals made his job easier, but he didn't respond.
Here the numbers for three more classic seasons, from Dan Quisenberry in 1983, Bruce Sutter in 1977 and John Hiller in 1973.
WN LS GM SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Davis 4 3 70 44 92.7 66 31 92 1.85
Gagne 2 3 72 51 76.0 33 18 129 1.30
Quisenberry 5 3 69 45 139.0 118 11 48 1.94
Sutter 7 3 62 31 107.3 69 23 129 1.34
Hiller 10 5 65 38 125.3 89 39 124 1.44
Hiller suffered a heart attack in 1971, then came back two years later and set a new saves record. The Quiz in 1983 became the first pitcher to save more than 40 games in a season. Sutter in 1977 burst upon the league in pretty much the same way Gagne has, saving 31 games despite missing several weeks with an injury.
Quisenberry had only three Tough Saves in 1983, despite a workload that included 69 games and 139 innings pitched. Quisenberry almost never came into the game in the middle of an inning; he would always start an inning, usually the 7th or the 8th. Of Quisenberry's 45 saves, 11 times he started the 7th inning and worked three full innings to pick up the save. And these games weren't blow outs; most of the time he was working with a lead of three runs or less.
Sutter had nine Tough Saves, and five times pitched a full three innings. Of Hiller's 38 saves, 18 of them were Tough Saves. Hiller also pitched three innings on seven occasions, and three times entered the game in the sixth inning.
Breaking down save totals into Easy, Regular and Tough was a step in the right direction, but I still think we can do better. If a closer always starts an inning, like Gagne or Quiz, he will never come into the game with a man on base. Davis' 22 Tough Saves in 1989 had more to do with how his manager used him, than with his performance; same with Hiller in '73. Even if Quisenberry had just three Tough Saves in 1983, I think he was every bit as valuable.
Gagne pitched barely more than half as many innings as Quiz did in 1983. Increased specialization in the bullpen has gradually redefined the closer's role, so that today most closers only start and finish the ninth inning. The reality for Gagne is that he doesn't have to pitch as many innings as Quisenberry, because the Dodgers' other relievers were so dominant. They don't need Gagne to start the seventh inning, because Mota and Quantrill can do that just fine.
On the other hand, those other pitchers were so good, that Jim Tracy could easily have brought Gagne into the game in a tight situation in the 7th or 8th inning, and used Mota to finish up. But he wouldn't do that because bullpen roles have become so narrowly defined.
I would like to see a new Save Rule developed, that awards points for each out, based on the score and situation. Imagine a pitcher comes into the game in the 7th inning with runners on base, gets two outs and holds the lead. For each out, he gets credited with a number of "save points", and he keeps those points regardless if he finishes the game or not.
Right now, closers only want to come into the game only in save situations (and their managers feel the same way). Managers might use their bullpens more effectively if their closer can still get credited for "saving" a game in the 7th or 8th inning, even if he does not finish the game.
I've been trying to figure out a system, but it needs much work. Preferably, such a system would be simple to understand and easy to calculate, and that's no small task. Anyways, we'll have to make do with what we've got.
From January 14, 2004:
YANKEE SOUTHPAWS
The New York Yankees have made some high profile additions to their starting rotation this winter - namely, Javier Vazquez and Kevin Brown. They're both power pitchers, and they're both right-handed. Meanwhile, the Yankees have lost two left-handers, Andy Pettitte and David Wells.
Brian Cashman, the Yankees' GM, doesn't sound too worried. "There aren't that many quality lefthanders," he was quoted as saying. "I'd rather go after a high-ceiling righthander than a low-quality lefthander." Cashman, of course, makes sense; a good righty is better than a mediocre lefty.
But still, there is something odd about a Yankee team without a strong presence from the left side. After all, Yankee Stadium is a park built for left-handed hitters and pitchers. A Yankee left-hander, Whitey Ford, holds the record for consecutive scoreless innings pitched in the World Series. I might suggest that building a Yankee team without left-handed pitching is not only reckless, but perhaps un-American.
The Yankees have won 26 World Series in their illustrious existence. Here's a list of the left-handed pitchers who have contributed to those championships:
1923
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Herb Pennock 19 6 35 27 21 1 3 238.3 235 68 93 3.13
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Pennock 2 0 3 2 1 0 1 17.3 19 1 8 3.63
In 1919, Babe Ruth and Herb Pennock were both left-handed pitchers with the Red Sox. By this season, both were with the Yankees, though the Babe was in the outfield.
Pennock was a left-handed copy of Waite Hoyt, the Yankees' other pitching star from this decade. Both are in the Hall of Fame. Pennock had three or four real good years, but was not as good a pitcher as Andy Pettitte.
1927
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Herb Pennock 19 8 34 26 18 1 2 209.7 225 48 51 3.00
Dutch Ruether 13 6 27 26 12 3 0 184.0 202 52 45 3.38
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Pennock 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 9.0 3 0 1 1.00
Dutch Ruether was having a good season for the Yankees when he apparently fell ill, and was replaced by George Pipgras. He didn't pitch in the World Series, nor ever again in the majors.
1928
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Herb Pennock 17 6 28 24 18 5 3 211.0 215 40 53 2.56
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Tom Zachary 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 9.0 9 1 7 3.00
The Yankees picked up Zachary late in the summer, then gave him a start in the World Series. Pennock, who had a sore arm, did not pitch in the postseason.
1932
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Lefty Gomez 24 7 37 31 21 1 1 265.3 266 105 176 4.21
Herb Pennock 9 5 22 21 9 1 0 146.7 191 38 54 4.60
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Gomez 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 9.0 9 1 8 1.00
Pennock 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 4.0 2 1 4 2.25
Gomez is another Hall-of-Famer. Gomez' ERA was actually below average this year, though he won 24 games. Gomez had three brilliant seasons in his career, but otherwise was not a particularly impressive pitcher.
1936
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Lefty Gomez 13 7 31 30 10 0 0 188.7 184 122 105 4.39
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Gomez 2 0 2 2 1 0 0 15.3 14 11 9 4.70
The Yankees won Gomez' two starts by scores of 18-4 and 13-5.
1937
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Lefty Gomez 21 11 34 34 25 6 0 278.3 233 93 194 2.33
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Gomez 2 0 2 2 2 0 0 18.0 16 2 8 1.50
Maybe the best season of Gomez' career. It was the only one in which he had more than twice as many strikeouts as walks.
1938
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Lefty Gomez 18 12 32 32 20 4 0 239.0 239 99 129 3.35
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Gomez 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 7.0 9 1 5 3.86
More Gomez. The Yankees swept the Cubs in four games; Gomez was the only Yankee starter who did not throw a complete game.
1939
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Lefty Gomez 12 8 26 26 14 2 0 198.0 173 84 102 3.41
Marius Russo 8 3 21 11 9 2 2 116.0 86 41 55 2.41
Gomez only threw one inning in the World Series, Russo didn't pitch at all.
1941
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Marius Russo 14 10 28 27 17 3 1 209.7 195 87 105 3.09
Lefty Gomez 15 5 23 23 8 2 0 156.3 151 103 76 3.74
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Russo 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 9.0 4 2 5 1.00
The Yankees' best left-handers in the 1940's were Marius Ugo Russo and fireman Joe Page. In his one postseason start this year, Russo pitched a great game against the Dodgers, and also drove in both of the Yankees runs when he lined a pitch off of Freddie Fitzsimmons' leg.
1943
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Marius Russo 5 10 24 14 5 1 1 101.7 89 45 42 3.72
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Russo 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 9.0 7 1 2 0.00
I guess there was a shortage of left-handers during the war. Russo spent the next two years in the service, made a brief comeback in 1946 but soon retired.
In this year's World Series, Russo gave up a single (unearned) run in his only start. Once again, he did some damage with his bat, hitting two doubles and scoring the winning run.
1947
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Joe Page 14 8 56 2 0 0 17 141.3 105 72 116 2.48
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Page 1 1 4 0 0 0 1 12.3 12 2 7 4.38
In May of 1946, Page got into a "confrontation" with his manager, Joe McCarthy. McCarthy had won seven World Series as the Yankee skipper, while Page had struggled as a starter, but amazingly Page prevailed. McCarthy was fired, Bucky Harris was later hired, and Harris converted Page into a reliever.
1949
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Tommy Byrne 15 7 32 30 12 3 0 196.0 125 179 129 3.72
Ed Lopat 15 10 31 30 14 4 1 215.3 222 69 70 3.26
Joe Page 13 8 60 0 0 0 27 135.3 103 75 99 2.59
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Page 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 9.0 6 3 8 2.00
Lopat 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 5.7 9 1 4 6.35
Byrne 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 3.3 2 2 1 2.70
The Yankees won the World Series in 1949 in spite of a pitching staff that walked an ungodly number of batters. The Yankees averaged 5.2 walks per game, most in the league. Tommy Byrne set a 20th century record for walks in a season by a left-hander, with 179. Vic Raschi walked 138 batters, Allie Reynolds 123.
1950
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Ed Lopat 18 8 35 32 15 3 1 236.3 244 65 72 3.47
Tommy Byrne 15 9 31 31 10 2 0 203.3 188 160 118 4.74
Whitey Ford 9 1 20 12 7 2 1 112.0 87 52 59 2.81
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Lopat 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 8.0 9 0 5 2.25
Ford 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 8.7 7 1 7 0.00
The 50's were, of course, the golden years for Yankee left-handers. The team that won five straight championships was anchored by Ed Lopat, and also received one-and-a-half brilliant seasons from Whitey Ford, whose career was broken up by the Korean War.
1951
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Ed Lopat 21 9 31 31 20 4 0 234.7 209 71 93 2.91
Joe Ostrowski 6 4 34 3 2 0 5 95.3 103 18 30 3.49
Bob Kuzava 8 4 23 8 4 1 5 82.3 76 27 50 2.40
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Lopat 2 0 2 2 2 0 0 18.0 10 3 4 0.50
This was Lopat's best season as a starting pitcher; he also threw two brilliant complete games against the Giants, giving up one run in each.
1952
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Ed Lopat 10 5 20 19 10 2 0 149.3 127 53 56 2.53
Bill Miller 4 6 21 13 5 2 0 88.0 78 49 45 3.48
Bob Kuzava 8 8 28 12 6 1 3 133.0 115 63 67 3.45
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Lopat 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 11.3 14 4 3 4.76
Kuzava 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2.7 0 0 2 0.00
A classic Casey Stengel team. Only two pitchers, Vic Raschi and Allie Reynolds, started more than 20 games. They combined to make 60 starts, while the other 94 starts were spread among 12 different pitchers.
Kuzava saved Game Seven of the World Series, retiring the last eight Dodgers to preserve a 4-2 win.
1953
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Whitey Ford 18 6 32 30 11 3 0 207.0 187 110 110 3.00
Ed Lopat 16 4 25 24 9 3 0 178.3 169 32 50 2.42
Bob Kuzava 6 5 33 6 2 2 4 92.3 92 34 48 3.31
World Series
W L G GS
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Lopat 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 9.0 9 4 3 2.00
Ford 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 8.0 9 2 7 4.50
The Yankees won their fifth straight World Series, boosted by Whitey Ford's return from the army.
Kuzava started only six games, but threw two shutouts. In one game, he lost a no-hitter in the ninth inning.
1956
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Whitey Ford 19 6 31 30 18 2 1 225.7 187 84 141 2.47
Tommy Byrne 7 3 37 8 1 0 6 109.7 97 72 52 3.36
Rip Coleman 3 5 29 9 0 0 2 88.3 97 42 42 3.67
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Ford 1 1 2 2 1 0 0 12.0 14 2 8 5.25
Ford won the ERA title; his 19 wins were the most he would win for Casey Stengel.
Tommy Byrne couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, but he could always win in a Yankee uniform. In this year's epic series against the Dodgers, Stengel only let him face two hitters.
1958
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Whitey Ford 14 7 30 29 15 7 1 219.3 174 62 145 2.01
Bobby Shantz 7 6 33 13 3 0 0 126.0 127 35 80 3.36
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Ford 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 15.3 19 5 16 4.11
Bobby Shantz pitched outstanding baseball for the Yankees for four years, but only won one World Series.
1961
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Whitey Ford 25 4 39 39 11 3 0 283.0 242 92 209 3.21
Luis Arroyo 15 5 65 0 0 0 29 119.0 83 49 87 2.19
Bud Daley 8 9 23 17 7 0 0 129.7 127 51 83 3.96
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Ford 2 0 2 2 1 1 0 14.0 6 1 7 0.00
Daley 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 7.0 5 0 3 0.00
Arroyo 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 4.0 4 2 3 2.25
After Ralph Houk replaced Casey Stengel as manager, Whitey Ford was actually allowed to start more than 30 games in a season. He piled on the wins and the innings, including a 24-win season in 1963.
Bud Daley lost 17 games this year, the first eight with the Athletics. He then rode the shuttle bus between Kansas City and New York, and was a valuable pitcher for the Yankees this year and next.
Luis Arroyo's 29 saves were a new record, breaking Joe Page's previous mark of 27. Saves didn't become an official statistic until 1969.
1962
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Whitey Ford 17 8 38 37 7 0 0 257.7 243 69 160 2.90
Marshall Bridges 8 4 52 0 0 0 18 71.7 49 48 66 3.14
Bud Daley 7 5 43 6 0 0 4 105.3 105 21 55 3.59
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Ford 1 1 3 3 1 0 0 19.7 24 4 12 4.12
Bridges 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3.7 4 2 3 4.91
The Giants scored a run off Ford in the second inning of Game One of the World Series, ending his consecutive scoreless inning streak at 33 1/3 (in addition to his 14 scoreless innings in 1961, he also threw 18 scoreless innings in a losing cause in 1960). Ford won the game, his last postseason victory.
1977
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Ron Guidry 16 7 31 25 9 5 1 210.7 174 65 176 2.82
Don Gullett 14 4 22 22 7 1 0 158.3 137 69 116 3.58
Sparky Lyle 13 5 72 0 0 0 26 137.0 131 33 68 2.17
ALCS
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Guidry 1 0 2 2 1 0 0 11.3 9 3 8 3.97
Lyle 2 0 4 0 0 0 0 9.3 7 0 3 0.96
Gullett 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 2.0 4 2 0 18.00
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Guidry 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 9.0 4 3 7 2.00
Lyle 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 4.7 2 0 2 1.93
Gullett 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 12.7 13 7 10 6.39
Sparky Lyle won the Cy Young Award, and pitched brilliantly in the playoffs. After the season, the Yankees signed Goose Gossage.
1978
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Ron Guidry 25 3 35 35 16 9 0 273.7 187 72 248 1.74
Sparky Lyle 9 3 59 0 0 0 9 111.7 116 33 33 3.47
ALCS
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Guidry 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 8.0 7 1 7 1.12
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Guidry 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 9.0 8 7 4 1.00
Ron Guidry probably had the greatest season ever by a Yankee pitcher.
1996
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Andy Pettitte 21 8 35 34 2 0 0 221.0 229 72 162 3.87
Jimmy Key 12 11 30 30 0 0 0 169.3 171 58 116 4.68
Kenny Rogers 12 8 30 30 2 1 0 179.0 179 83 92 4.68
ALDS
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Pettitte 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 6.3 4 6 3 5.68
Key 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 5.0 5 1 3 3.60
Rogers 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 2.0 5 2 1 9.00
ALCS
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Pettitte 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 15.0 10 5 7 3.60
Key 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 8.0 3 1 5 2.25
Rogers 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 3.0 5 2 3 12.00
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Key 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 11.3 15 5 1 3.97
Pettitte 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 10.7 11 4 5 5.91
Lloyd 1 0 4 0 0 0 0 2.7 0 0 4 0.00
Rogers 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2.0 5 2 0 22.50
Even non-Yankee fans still have bad memories of Kenny Rogers in 1996.
Pettitte and Key started Games One and Two against the Braves — and lost — then pitched brilliantly in Games Five and Six.
1998
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
David Wells 18 4 30 30 8 5 0 214.3 195 29 163 3.49
Andy Pettitte 16 11 33 32 5 0 0 216.3 226 87 146 4.24
ALDS
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Wells 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 8.0 5 1 9 0.00
Pettitte 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 7.0 3 0 8 1.29
ALCS
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Wells 2 0 2 2 0 0 0 15.7 12 2 18 2.87
Pettitte 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 4.7 8 3 1 11.57
Stanton 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3.7 2 1 4 0.00
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Pettitte 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 7.3 5 3 4 0.00
Wells 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 7.0 7 2 4 6.43
Wells threw a perfect game during the season. Pettitte's best season with the Yankees was in 1997, when the Yankees didn't win.
1999
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Andy Pettitte 14 11 31 31 0 0 0 191.7 216 89 121 4.70
Mike Stanton 2 2 73 1 0 0 0 62.3 71 18 59 4.33
ALDS
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Pettitte 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 7.3 7 0 5 1.23
ALCS
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Pettitte 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 7.3 8 1 5 2.45
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Pettitte 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 3.7 10 1 1 12.27
We'll just forget Pettitte's start in Game Three; after all, the Yankees still won. No wait, it's Pettitte's start in 2001 that he'd like us to forget.
2000
Regular Season
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Andy Pettitte 19 9 32 32 3 1 0 204.7 219 80 125 4.35
Mike Stanton 2 3 69 0 0 0 0 68.0 68 24 75 4.10
ALDS
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Pettitte 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 11.3 15 3 7 3.97
Stanton 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 4.3 5 1 3 2.08
ALCS
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Pettitte 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 6.7 9 1 2 2.70
Neagle 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 10.0 6 7 7 4.50
World Series
W L G GS CG SH SV IP HT BB SO ERA
Pettitte 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 13.7 16 4 9 1.98
Neagle 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 4.7 4 2 3 3.86
Stanton 2 0 4 0 0 0 0 4.3 0 0 7 0.00
Funny thing, but I don't ever remember Denny Neagle in a Yankee uniform.
The Yankees probably haven't relied as much on southpaws as I first thought they did. They've usually had one main guy — Pennock, Gomez, Lopat, Ford, Guidry, Pettitte — and sometimes one or two others who helped out.
As for this season, I'm sure we'll see a southpaw starting in pinstripes before the season's end. Maybe Tom Glavine.
From January 1, 2004:
OPENING THE DOORS
The 1980's has an inferiority complex. I grew up and became a fan of the game in that decade, so I have a soft spot for its players. The game was an exciting mix of power and speed (including some of the greatest base stealers in baseball history); there were some great playoffs, and the playing field was as level as it has ever been.
But there was a striking lack of greatness. There were no dynasties; no team won consecutive championships. There were great players, but none of the stature of a Willie Mays, Ted Williams, Barry Bonds or Babe Ruth. No one hit 50 home runs in a season. The hits leader was Willie Wilson, the wins leader was Jack Morris, and neither is going into the Hall of Fame.
Speaking of Cooperstown, the Hall of Fame will announce its newest members next week. It appears likely that two 80's stars, Paul Molitor and Dennis Eckersley, will be elected; it is unlikely that a third player will go in, but Bruce Sutter and Ryne Sandberg both have a shot.
If Eckersley and Molitor are elected, that means that 27 players who were active in 1980 will be in the Hall of Fame. The players from 1980 still have a long way to go before they match the illustrious class of 1928; 55 active players from that season were later inducted into the Hall of Fame. Some were voted in by the writers, but most were inducted by the Veterans Committee. More players from 1928 are in the Hall of Fame than from any other year.
Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Ty Cobb, Mel Ott, Tris Speaker, Pete Alexander, Rogers Hornsby, Lefty Grove, Paul Waner, Frankie Frisch, Eddie Collins, Charlie Gehringer, Bill Dickey, Mickey Cochrane, Jimmie Foxx, Al Simmons, Heinie Manush, Sam Rice, Goose Goslin, Joe Cronin, George Sisler, Ray Schalk, Ted Lyons, Red Faber, Harry Heilmann, Joe Sewell, Red Ruffing, Jim Bottomley, Chick Hafey, Rabbit Maranville, Jesse Haines, Bill Terry, Fred Lindstrom, Travis Jackson, Edd Rousch, Carl Hubbell, Gabby Hartnett, Hack Wilson, Kiki Cuyler, Lloyd Waner, Pie Traynor, Burleigh Grimes, George Kelly, Eppa Rixey, Dave Bancroft, Max Carey, Al Lopez, Dazzy Vance, Chuck Klein, Tony Lazzeri, Earle Combs, Herb Pennock, Waite Hoyt and Stan Coveleski were all active in 1928, and all are in the Hall of Fame.
If I had a ballot this year, I would vote for Molitor, Eckersley, Sandberg, Goose Gossage, Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Dave Parker and Alan Trammell. I'm well aware that Parker and Trammell have no shot at getting elected, and things are looking grim each year for Blyleven, the Hawk and the Goose. If this were 1928, those five players would all be guaranteed of induction by the Veterans Committee, but that route now appears to be cut off.
But this is 2004, and the 1980's, which ended only 15 years ago, aren't getting much respect from the electors. There are a few more to go; looking into the future, I expect that Eckersley, Molitor, Rickey Henderson, Cal Ripken, Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Greg Maddux, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire, Tom Glavine, Roberto Alomar, Craig Biggio, Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr. and Sammy Sosa will all go in. I will also go out on a limb, and say that Pete Rose will get in eventually as well.
Players who might get elected include Gossage, Sutter, Dawson, Sandberg, Tim Raines, Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez, Gary Sheffield, John Smoltz and Juan Gonzalez. I could also include Blyleven, Dale Murphy and Jim Rice... but does anyone really think they are going to be elected? I don't think so, not unless they are able to lead a Tony Perez-type campaign in their favour.
Here are the probable totals for each season from the 1980's:
1980
# Players Currently Inducted: 25
Likely to be Inducted: Eckersley, Rose, Molitor, Henderson
Possible Inductees: Gossage, Dawson, Sutter, Raines
Final Total: 29-33
1981
# Players Currently Inducted: 24
Likely to be Inducted: Eckersley, Rose, Molitor, Henderson, Ripken
Possible Inductees: Gossage, Dawson, Sutter, Raines, Sandberg
Final Total: 29-34
1982
# Players Currently Inducted: 24
Likely to be Inducted: Eckersley, Rose, Molitor, Henderson, Ripken, Gwynn, Boggs
Possible Inductees: Gossage, Dawson, Sutter, Raines, Sandberg
Final Total: 31-36
1983
# Players Currently Inducted: 22
Likely to be Inducted: Eckersley, Rose, Molitor, Henderson, Ripken, Gwynn, Boggs
Possible Inductees: Gossage, Dawson, Sutter, Raines, Sandberg
Final Total: 29-34
1984
# Players Currently Inducted: 20
Likely to be Inducted: Eckersley, Rose, Molitor, Henderson, Ripken, Gwynn, Boggs, Clemens
Possible Inductees: Gossage, Dawson, Sutter, Raines, Sandberg
Final Total: 28-33
1985
# Players Currently Inducted: 19
Likely to be Inducted: Eckersley, Rose, Molitor, Henderson, Ripken, Gwynn, Boggs, Clemens
Possible Inductees: Gossage, Dawson, Sutter, Raines, Sandberg
Final Total: 27-32
1986
# Players Currently Inducted: 15
Likely to be Inducted: Eckersley, Rose, Molitor, Henderson, Ripken, Gwynn, Boggs, Clemens, Bonds, Maddux, Palmeiro, McGwire
Possible Inductees: Gossage, Dawson, Sutter, Raines, Sandberg, McGriff
Final Total: 26-32
1987
# Players Currently Inducted: 13
Likely to be Inducted: Eckersley, Molitor, Henderson, Ripken, Gwynn, Boggs, Clemens, Bonds, Maddux, Palmeiro, McGwire, Glavine
Possible Inductees: Gossage, Dawson, Raines, Sandberg, McGriff, Martinez
Final Total: 25-31
1988
# Players Currently Inducted: 11
Likely to be Inducted: Eckersley, Molitor, Henderson, Ripken, Gwynn, Boggs, Clemens, Bonds, Maddux, Palmeiro, McGwire, Glavine, Alomar, Biggio, Johnson
Possible Inductees: Gossage, Dawson, Raines, Sandberg, McGriff, Martinez, Sutter, Sheffield, Smoltz
Final Total: 26-35
1989
# Players Currently Inducted: 9
Likely to be Inducted: Eckersley, Molitor, Henderson, Ripken, Gwynn, Boggs, Clemens, Bonds, Maddux, Palmeiro, McGwire, Glavine, Alomar, Biggio, Johnson
Possible Inductees: Gossage, Dawson, Raines, Sandberg, McGriff, Martinez, Sheffield, Smoltz
Final Total: 24-32
There is no season from the 1980's that is guaranteed to have at least 30 representatives in the Hall of Fame, and it is extremely unlikely that any season will approach 35. Compare those numbers to decades past:
1900's High: 34 (1904-05, 1907) Low: 28 (1900)
1910's High: 39 (1915, 1916) Low: 27 (1911)
1920's High: 55 (1928) Low: 34 (1920-21)
1930's High: 54 (1930) Low: 37 (1938-39)
1940's High: 38 (1941) Low: 28 (1946, 1949) (not counting war years)
1950's High: 37 (1956) Low: 28 (1950)
1960's High: 38 (1965, 1968) Low: 32 (1960)
1970's High: 36 (1970-71) Low: 27 (1977-79)
1980's High: 25 (1980) Low: 9 (1989)
(These stats all came from Bill James' book Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame, updated where necessary)
As you can see, there are a huge number of players from the 1920's and 1930's in the Hall of Fame. It was a travesty that so many players from that era were elected, but what's done is done. I would be the last person to suggest that 55 players from 1980 should go into the Hall. But don't worry; so far, only 25 are in, and it doesn't look as if there will be many more.
Due to expansion, there are almost twice as many players in the game today as there were in 1960. There should be more great players in the game as well; baseball players are recruited from a far greater population base today than ever before. Yet, while the number of players goes up, the number who go into the Hall is going steadily downwards.
You might want to argue that the players in the 1980's weren't as great as in other decades. I will concede that there was no Willie Mays or Barry Bonds; but there were a lot of players whose skills were unique to that decade. There has never been another Ryne Sandberg, a Gold Glove second baseman who could steal 50 bases in one season, hit 40 homers in another.
No players in baseball history could dominate the basepaths like Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines. Ripken, Yount and Trammell redefined the shortstop position by hitting for power and playing good defense. Gossage and Sutter redefined the closer's role, as did Eckersley. When they retired, Nolan Ryan, Steve Carlton and Bert Blyleven were the three greatest strikeout pitchers ever.
Even if my imaginery ballot become reality, and eight players were elected this year, no season from the 1980's would have even 40 active players in the Hall; the most would probably be 38, from 1982. Only by opening the floodgates and letting in a large group of players, with the 1980's achieve equal representation in Cooperstown with past decades.
Of course, the Veterans Committee could always have its rules changed in the future, making it easier for the Dawson's and Blyleven's to get in. But why wait? There is no chance of the 1980's being overrepresented in the Hall of Fame, so let's let a few more guys in.
Anyways, here's how I would group this year's candidates:
THE CREAM OF THE CROP
- Bert Blyleven - fifth all-time in strikeouts, won 287 games. His career ERA and winning percentage aren't spectacular, but they're both better than Nolan Ryan's.
- Dennis Eckersley - probably the third or fourth best relief pitcher ever. Revolutionized the role of the closer. Also won about 150 games as a starter.
- Goose Gossage - the greatest relief pitcher ever. Have you checked out his 1977 season lately?
- Paul Molitor - over 3300 hits, also batted .418 in 55 World Series at bats.
- Ryne Sandberg - apart from hitting more home runs than any other second baseman, winning nine Gold Gloves, winning an MVP Award, leading the Cubs to the playoffs for the first time in 40 years... he wasn't all that impressive.
THE BEST OF THE REST
- Dave Concepcion - a guy whose candidancy I have taken more seriously of late. A decent hitter, and a great defensive player. Revolutionized the position with his play on artificial turf.
- Andre Dawson - outstanding power and speed, and a great defensive player. A long career, and one of the most popular and admired players in the game.
- Keith Hernandez - borderline candidate, needed to last a little longer to give him a chance.
- Tommy John - won 288 games, had surgical procedure named after him.
- Dennis Martinez - the midsection of his career is missing, but the first part was good, and the last part was way good. 245 career wins.
- Don Mattingly - finished as a great player at age 28, but still an awesome personality.
- Dale Murphy - a great player from 1982-87; 398 homers, Gold Glove centrefielder. Didn't age well.
- Dave Parker - the best player in baseball 1977-79. 2712 hits, 339 homers. Won an MVP Award; five times finished among the Top Five in MVP voting. In 1977, had 26 outfield assists, including nine double plays. A drug problem killed his chances of election.
- Jim Rice - didn't do much except hit, but he could hit.
- Bruce Sutter - a great pitcher for seven years. Have you checked out his 1977 season lately?
- Alan Trammell - great player, managerial career off to a very rocky start. But there's always hope. Joe Torre's first four years as manager:
GM WN LS %
1977 New York Mets 117 49 68 .419
1978 New York Mets 162 66 96 .407
1979 New York Mets 163 63 99 .389
1980 New York Mets 162 67 95 .414
NOT GREAT, BUT YOU WERE PRETTY DARN GOOD
- Steve Garvey - I have no idea why he didn't follow up on his political aspirations. He was perfectly qualified.
- Jack Morris - 80's win leader.
- Lee Smith - all-time save leader.
- Fernando Valenzuela - last pitcher to throw 20 complete games in a season.
THANKS FOR THE MEMORIES (from a Blue Jay fan)
- Joe Carter - you weren't a great player, Joe, but I never get tired of watching you jump up and down, with either the bat or glove in your hand
- Dave Stieb - you were good enough, Sir David, but not healthy enough
- Jimmy Key - didn't pitch on a losing team until his final season
WHY HAVEN'T YOU BEEN ELECTED ALREADY?
MISSING FROM THE BALLOT
- Ted Simmons - apparently, he played in an era when there was little appreciation for a player who hit for average, hit for power, drove in runs, and played 2000 games behind the plate.
- Lou Whitaker - Lou, what happened to the Tigers after you retired?
ONE YEAR ONLY
- Danny Darwin
- Doug Drabek
- Jim Eisereich - a guy everybody rooted for.
- Cecil Fielder - Prince is coming.
- Kevin Mitchell
- Randy Myers
- Terry Pendleton - outstanding defensive player, learned how to hit in his 30's.
- Juan Samuel
- Bob Tewksbury - a great pitcher for two years, had amazing control.
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